Finally, a full rundown. As always, these are ranked by likelihood of changing parties.
Read below the jump...
PENNSYLVANIA
Rick Santorum - R
Likely Challenger - Bob Casey Jr. (State Auditor)
Status - Lean Dem
Santorum is in trouble. He's trailing Casey in almost every poll. But, this is no slam dunk. Casey's fundraising hasn't been great yet (though he has the DNC's strong support, so it's not like $ is much of an issue), and Santorum has been consciously getting a makeover to seem more moderate. Stop the fuckhead now any way you can. Talk to Pennsylvanians you know, have them email other Pennsylvanians, anything...though Casey is a strong candidate who should win this if things go as planned, many swing voters don't know how evil Santorum is. And I worry that Casey may get that coronation arrogance Paul Babbitt in Arizona and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in Maryland had, leading him to run a shitty campaign. So, don't get lax - work work work. If we accomplish nothing else in 2006, we must oust Man-on-Dog.
RHODE ISLAND
Lincoln Chafee - R
Likely Challenger - Sheldon Whitehouse (U.S. Attorney)
Status - Toss-Up
Now will you Kossacks stop being all warm and fuzzy about "RINO" Chafee? His Bolton vote now re-enforces that he cares more about Bill Frist's approval than about the needs of Rhode Island. 80% of Rhode Islanders oppose Bolton, yet Chafee found it fit to suck up to the wingnuts. No more Chafee-loving...he is nothing more than a milquetoast limpdick. The latest poll: Chafee 41, Whitehouse 31. Bad, you say? Wrong. Whitehouse has very low name recognition, while every Rhode Islander knows the name Chafee. In other words, Chafee is about at his ceiling, while Whitehouse is just shoring up his base.
MINNESOTA
Open - D
Likely Candidates - D's: Amy Klobuchar (Hennepin County Attorney) or Patty Wetterling (children's advocate); R: Mark Kennedy (U.S. Rep.)
Status: Toss-Up
This got easier with unpopular incumbent Mark Dayton's retirement. The GOP has already crowned Kennedy their Messiah, but we have two very strong women, prosecutor Klobuchar and very very very popular private citizen Wetterling, to choose from. Polls show Klobuchar keeping it close with Kennedy, which is good because her name recognition is likely not as high as his, and Wetterling leading him. My money is on Wetterling, because of her popularity, but Klobuchar has a good chance. Though she is vulnerable to the "Twin Cities latte-drinker" label, she is also a prosecutor and that makes it hard to call her "soft on crime".
FLORIDA
Ben Nelson - D
Likely Challenger - Katherine Harris (U.S. Rep. and Wicked Witch of Sarasota)
Status - Lean Dem if Harris is the GOPer, Toss-Up otherwise
The only likely GOP candidate is Katie Girl, and Floridians don't care for her (despite high name recognition, she trails Nelson). Indeed, Florida Republicans are trying to get one of their Governor candidates to challenge Nelson, but to no avail. In the end, Harris was promised the Repig nomination by the White House, and so she will get it. Nelson will survive if she is his challenger. If not, he will face a very tough race, but he does not have very much baggage (he's a likeable, moderate guy), so I hesitate to say this leans Republican even with voting fraud.
NEBRASKA
Ben Nelson - D
Likely Challenger - Don Stenberg (2000 candidate)
Status - Lean Dem
Look at it on paper, and you'd say: Solid GOP. Unexciting Democratic incumbent, blood-red state, NRSC targeting. But Nelson is a likeable guy with the power of incumbency. Plus, if Stenberg couldn't beat him in 2000, with Bush's coattails, how will he beat him in 2006? He'll have to hope Tom Osborne has enough power in the gov's race to bring him over the edge, and I believe that when Nebraskans compare a nice, moderate Joe with an angry, loser neocon, they will pick Nelson (the nice, moderate Joe).
MONTANA
Conrad Burns - R
Likely Challenger - John Morrison (State Auditor)...
Status - Lean GOP
Washington may not know it yet, but Helena does. Burns is vulnerable, big time vulnerable. Corruption, unpopularity, tepid support, and a rising Dem tide in Montana all hurt him. Oh yeah, and then there's that other thing - no Bush on the ticket in '06, which is probably what barely saved him in 2000. So, here we go. Along with Morrison, who is definitely in, Senate President Tester is strongly considering a run.
MICHIGAN
Debbie Stabenow - D
Likely Challenger - Jane Abraham (wife of former Senator), Keith Butler (some black dude)
Status - Lean Dem
Well, the Goopers finally have two challengers for Debbie Stabenow, neither inspiring. There's Jane Abraham, wife of the Senate Stabenow ousted in 2000, a woman with low name recognition and a mean attitude, and Keith Butler, whose only asset is his skin color (which still won't be enough to get more than 20% of the black vote on a very very very very GOP-friendly night). The one that got away, I suppose. Michigan Republicans' attention is noticeably moving to Gov. Granholm (D) and not Sen. Stabenow.
TENNESSEE
Open - R
Likely Candidates - R's: Ed Bryant (former U.S. Rep.), Bob Corker (Chattanooga mayor), or Beth Harwell (Tennessee GOP chair); D: Harold Ford Jr. (U.S. Rep.)
Status - Lean GOP
Ever since 1994, I have been skeptical about Tennessee, but Phil Bredesen's Gov win in 2002 was definitely good. Bredesen is considered one of the safer incumbents next year, and may use his political capital to boost Ford, making the race tighter than it would be. Ford is a good candidate, but has baggage, and this is still Tennessee, so nobody in their right mind can say it leans Dem.
The rankings remain as they did in the last update.
Summary: It's all about momentum. I find it is more helpful to watch the political winds sway than to do simple Senate math. By math, there would have been no way the Republicans would take back Congress in 1994. Yet they did it, because of the momentum. So, look for those public opinion polls about approval ratings, the issues, and generic congressional votes rather than moaning about "how will we gain 6 Senate seats?" It's all about momentum. If it were just simple logic, Russ Feingold, Paul Wellstone, Bill Frist, and Saxby Chambliss would never have been elected. They all trailed entrenched incumbents (Kasten, Boschwitz, Sasser, and Cleland), yet all managed to pull big upsets in November. Not even GOP lapdog news channels can claim it's been an easy few months for Republicans, and while many of them are obsessed with 2008, you will see more and more Congress talk as November 7, 2006 approaches.
I want all of you to vote on November 7, 2006. ALL OF YOU. I want to see historic turnout (more than the usual 35-40%), as high as possible. I want to see Santorum, Chafee, Burns, Kyl, DeWine, Talent, Simmons, Shays, Gerlach, Fitzpatrick, DeLay, Pataki, Ehrlich, Romney, Perdue, Riley, and every other Repiglican on the ballot go down. I want to see massive anti-GOP sentiment, and I don't just mean on Social Security. Schiavo, Iraq, health care, education, the economy, jobs, every god-damn thing. Do not be pessimistic, complacent, or cynical. Let's pull off the biggest wave since '94, and let's leave Bush impotent come January 2007.
Many of you have expressed distrust of pro-life Democratic candidates like Casey, etc. Let me remind you that under a Democratic Congress, abortion and gay marriage and other right-wing wedge issues will never come up. Did the Democratic Congress ever condemn Roe v. Wade? Do you remember any gay marriage legislation from '55 to '95? Any ANWR drilling? Any of these business-humping proposals like the bankruptcy bill? No? Gee.
I understand that many of you are ideological before you are partisan. I understand...I completely understand why you'd rather have another two years of a Republican Congress...I mean, gee, I can't wait for them to continue their agenda - to kill democratic tradition and dissent, destroy ANWR, declare war on Iran, then cut veterans' benefits, shut down military bases, kick the middle class in the gut, and turn America into a theocracy. Why wouldn't you want that? Much better than a Democratic Congress that does 80% right.
This is not the election to put purity above partisanship. That was 1964, when there was no way Republicans would gain control and it was okay to protest-vote. But today, we have the most frightening cabal in American history at the helm. It is already hard enough getting our message out. So I am asking you to prioritize in '06 and vote (D) before you vote liberal.
