Is Snowe, McCain, Warner, Voinovich or Graham bucking for a better gig?
I can't even tell you guys how often during this nuclear option freak show I've seen a phrase to the effect that "Bill Frist's presidential ambitions rest on his performance during this filibuster fight." Now, obviously all of us here would enjoy a little chuckle at Frist's expense should he end up looking like a Constitution-shredding, rule-violating jackass, but who else would?
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It's almost time for the '08 candidates to make themselves excruciatingly visible to the American public. If Frist ends up tarnished with the conservative base, there could be a fracturing of their support among a number of right-wing candidates instead of possibly uniting behind Frist (not that this is a given in any case). There could be room for a moderate with enough independent support to take the nomination.
Now, consider that the two least pleasant options for Frist are:
1.) Enough Republicans side with Democrats to overrule the President of the Senate's ruling, or
2.) Moderates of both parties negotiate a compromise before a motion to suspend debate is ruled on by the President of the Senate.
In either scenario, Frist looks like he can't keep his caucus in line (an ineffective leader) and can't deliver to the religious right (an incapable conservative). Either scenario cripples Frist's Presidential hopes. Either scenario might convince another Senator with friends in the conservative activism circles (read: Santorum) that Frist is vulnerable from the right, thus eating at his base.
If enough Senate centrists get together, it's possible that the traditional conservatives and centrists in the Republican caucus can stage a power play against the neoconservatives and their supporters.
Republican party-line discipline isn't what it once was, as the Bolton hearings illustrate. The question is then, do any moderate Republicans with Presidential hopes have the leadership skills to bring together a coalition to torpedo Frist?