It looks surprising to see Dobson, Frist and the rest of the Republican Taliban champing at the bit to undo a deal that we know would be a PR nightmare for them if they try. I've been thinking about it carefully and was writing this diary last night when
Armando's diary was posted.
The Republican Taliban cares less about how it would look or whether Democrats come out of this with a big win. Because of its implications for their long and carefully built movement, by far the most important thing now is throttling this extremely dangerous rearguard action launched on Monday by the GOP 7. The GOP 7 showed potential future rebels how to run the playbook to earn a shower of adulation from the press. It could happen on SCOTUS and it could happen on stem cells, to name just a couple looming examples.
At all costs, they must make a public, high-profile show of stopping the GOP 7 playbook in its tracks. That is the total focus right now.
The Build-Up
As their power grew, they were still controllable. They could be used and couldn't do too much about it without enough minions in power. Though furious at being used, they stayed focused (on the family!), and kept plugging away, winning primary elections, slowly replacing conservative Republicans in Congress with truly radical Republican Taliban. Hello, Cornyn and Coburn! Hello Santorum! Hello Thune and Allen! DeMint, Talent and Brownback, oh my! This is a generally young, aggressive, charismatic group totally owned and operated by Republican Taliban, Inc.
They knew that as long as they bided their time and kept plugging away, one day they would have enough pawns to win an Ultimate Showdown. In all their wingnuttery, they masturbate to Ultimate Showdown fantasies like this. Even though masturbation makes the Baby Jesus cry.
The Moment
The time and place for that fight was 2005, immediately after a George Bush reelection attributable to their energetic turnout and organization. It was time to put their agenda on the front burner and let it boil. The fight was for the federal judiciary, especially SCOTUS.
Democratic opposition was expected. The breakaway GOP 7 wasn't. Biblically, predictable Democrats are the Romans enforcing the oppressive and intolerable social regime. Despite all past indignities, the moment of the Messiah was finally nigh - this was the time to be delivered from abortion, gays, science and separation of church and state.
This was the battle with all the stakes. And the GOP 7 were the Judas sellouts.
Monday's Aftermath - The Spin
After selling out the Republican Taliban, the GOP 7 bask in glowing national press praise as "Saviors of the Republic!" You simply cannot buy the kind of incredible press the GOP 7 are being given right now. Other potential GOP finger in the wind defectors jealously covet this press.
In the press fable, extreme partisanship is tearing America apart. Pushed to the brink of Constitutional crisis meltdown, a dramatic 11th hour group of heroes rise to the rescue, finally seeing reason, finally putting the good of the country ahead of the good of the party. Madness and crisis averted! The good guys save the day!
That is the story Vague America hears, and it resonates. People remember and miss the sweet unity in the immediate aftermath of 9/11. There's a deep craving for unifiers in America. Consider Obama's Boston speech. We all have a lot of anger at the other side but at the end of the day there is something painful in this deep cleave. That means there's a script just waiting for actors.
I'm not calling the GOP 7 noble people. Clearly they did what they did for their personal power interests. But all that matters is you are seen as putting the common good above partisanship and you get immediate, intense national press fellatio. The more dramatic your action, the deeper the throating. You already know it's there with McCain.
Monday's deal was the first major test run of this script. You saw the interviews. The more the reporters gushed over them, the more the GOP 7 looked like they thought they'd bought Microsoft in 1983.
The Response of the Republican Taliban
They have to fear that other Republicans outside the GOP 7 will be tempted. These people didn't build their power base not being smart or calculating. Even if they didn't feel a visceral killing rage against the Judas GOP 7, they absolutely must make examples of them, lest further anti-Taliban stances start racking up the political points.
The ballgame is still the GOP primaries. No matter how useful all this glorious press might be in a general state or national election for the GOP 7 and their would-be footstep followers, if they can't get out of the primary after openly flouting the Taliban then they'll learn not to run that playbook. They would rather have power and toe the line than bask in the glorious plaudits but be out of office.
The Republican Taliban has to publicly crush the insurrection. Eyes are on them. Potential GOP rebels need to see endgame before they act.
Endgame
If they don't fight back hard against this deal, the spin cements. So Frist moves for cloture on Myers. According to the signed agreement, the GOP 7 are not committed on Myers (Agreement, Part I. B.). Ben Nelson even said he wouldn't vote for cloture on Myers. But there would still be at least 41 votes from the Democratic caucus against cloture on Myers.
Then, Frist invokes the nuclear option. He has nothing personally to further lose, despite the fact that the GOP 7 have sworn to vote against. At most the Republicans get 48 votes on the nuclear option.
So why do it?
Here's what DeWine (2006) and Graham (2008) could go back and say in their primaries: "I was ready to invoke the nuclear option because I believe every judge deserves an up or down vote. But in my private conversations I came to understand we didn't have enough votes no matter what I did. So I did the next best thing. I made a deal to at least get three ideologues on the bench. Without my dealmaking, we would have had nothing. Nothing! I'm the hero. And the incumbent. So re-nominate me and I'm sure to win a general election (since I'm now seen as so above partisanship by independents and Democrats)."
If the vote is 52-48, they can't say this any more. They will each be held up as the sole people standing in the way of eliminating abortion, gay rights and saving the Ten Commandments.
If the Republicans do not get 48 votes, that means some not among the GOP 7 must vote against the option. Will Specter throw away his chairmanship, knowing the nuclear option is certain to fail? Will others risk similar backlash when they have nothing to lose by toeing the line? Let the headline grabbers bear the brunt.
No, I think it'll be 52-48.
As for the other 5 in the GOP 7, none of them are near as vulnerable. There aren't enough Taliban in Rhode Island and Maine (Chafee '06, Snowe '06, Collins '08) to scare them in primaries, though they likely would try. Virginia is Republican Taliban country, but Warner (2008) is a five-termer and probably isn't worried about the Taliban there. McCain won't face reelection until 2010 and he's a beloved four-termer who hates the Taliban anyway.
That's why DeWine and Graham were the ones saying "I was a yes" and the other 5 didn't need to say anything. Primary vulnerability.
The Republican Taliban understand this: the sole definition of "extraordinary circumstances" is no more and no less than whatever the GOP 7 understand it to mean. That gives the GOP 7 power. After being Judased, such power is unacceptable to them, and it enrages them. So they won't see a nuclear option vote that strips the GOP 7 from controlling this definition as that big a loss. Yes, it frees the Dems up to act however they wish (and the Dem 7 may still feel honor bound to some standard that was discussed in back rooms since these people aren't all that trustworthy either), but the revenge on the GOP 7 kind of balances it out. Remember, a lot of this is emotional. They've been working toward this a long time and they got turned back at the last possible moment. That's extremely embittering.
The Democrats are secondary in the Republican Taliban endgame now. They don't want the Dems to win but if it's a choice between Dems winning and delivering a high-profile public defeat to their own rebellious rearguard, they will choose the latter.
And that, in my opinion, is why the Republican Taliban cannot back off. The Democrats will have no constraining "extraordinary circumstances" language when all is said and done.