Many here know that I am not currently in favor of the gay marriage issue. I believe that it is "leading with our chin." Unlike many, I think about this issue in several levels.
We must consider the impact of gay marriage 1) on turnout 2) on the Dem coalition and 3) on Democratic values. On each and every one of these issues, gay marriage is a loser.
More btf
Gay Marriage (GM)
Civil Unions (CU)
- on turnout: in 2004, there were 11 referenda. Each went down to defeat by 20 + points. In many of these, there were records turnouts. Part of the turnout is GM. The GM thing MOTIVATES our enemies to come out and vote. It is coming up in CA in Nov of this year - it will not have a positive impact. The loss in OH was particularily galling, and was certainly influenced by GM.
- The Dem coalition is composed of several disparate groups (all % below are just guesses on my part). These include
a) Catholics (5-7 %) - GM is a loser
b) white liberals (15 %) - GM is neutral to positive here
c) blacks, conservative and liberal (9 %) - GM is a loser for conservative blacks which is about 1/2
d) Hispanics, conservative and liberal (11 %) - GM is a loser for conservative Hispanics which is about 3/4
e) gays (1-2 %) - winner, but very small numbers here
f) conservative union types (5-6 %) - GM is a loser here
g) young voters (6-7 %) - GM neutral to winner
Thus, by pushing GM, we risk the votes of conservative whites, Catholics Hispanics, and conservative blacks. I would guess that as many as 10 % of Dems might leave the party for this.
Amazingly enough, these were the VERY GROUPS that Bush did the most increase in during the last election.
- Committed dems are looking for the values of the Democratic party. I see, over and over again, that "If we don't stand for something, we stand for nothing." I agree 100 %. However, the search for values is NOT a suicide pact. A value like "equality" can be achieved by many approaches. In particular, CU is equality, with a name change.
Choosing and promoting a clear issue is important. However, we must also use sensible choices to decide WHERE to stand. CU is just as principled as GM, and a clear statement that this is good would clarify matters nicely.
The many gay members of the Democratic party are to be commended for their great passion for this issue, which is naturally very important to them.
As a democrat, I am NOT willing to give up public schools, Social Security, progressive taxation, environmental progress, science and all other democratic values for this one issue. I put it that way SPECIFICALLY because this is the request: We go the way of GM. This is not just a request, this is a demand by many of the strong supporters. If we do that, we lose election after election.
We can do what the gay marriage supporters want by supporting CU.
If you choose to reply, I don't care to be called a republican or any other name. Address the issues, and don't call me names or impugn my integrity.