Bush is not someone who will fight for a victory without pulling dirty tricks. In 2004 we saw several occasions where the terror level was raised to Orange (coincidentally around events where Kerry's poll numbers were up...hmmm). On the friday before the election we were shown a videotape of Bin Laden, which probably helped tip the election to Bush (I'm talking about on the popular vote level, lets avoid discusssion of Ohio.)
For all his bullshit, I think that he will try the same thing again in 2006. However, expect to see selective terror alerts in states with close Senate races, and subliminal placing of national security in close Congressional Districts. Another thing...a partial withdrawal of troops from Iraq may be his "October Surprise" for the Congressionl Elections. If enough troops are withdrawn, Bush can pull a Nixon, and claim that has a plan to end the war quicker than we do. I don't see him winning on economic issues anymore than in 2002 or 2004 (FYI, Social Security Privatization needs to be our club with which we will beat them over their heads with) and if we have another terrorist attack (God Forbid!) expect our Congressional Democrats to shed their backbones, because in a "post-9/11 II world", acting like a jellyfish will be politically-savvy. National Security will be their last resort in 2006, just as it has been in 2002 and 2004.