Cross-posted from
Moral Questions Weblog.
You get the impression right now that the Administration is really flailing for some sort of politically feasible way to support the Iraq War over the next few years. Let's walk through the various approaches they've used since the election.
- They've focused on domestic politics. This could have, and actually did, work somewhat for them initially. But the problem was that the programs they chose to emphasize (tax reform and social security) were not high on the agenda of most Americans and their approaches to the issues have been basically unpopular. Any other less ideological administration would have taken the easy route and moved to the center on domestic issues (in other words, the Clinton approach). Nevertheless, even a more skilled approach could only have lasted so long. Eventually, Iraq would have crept back into the news.
- There was a huge tactic error on the part of the administration's political arm when they chose to trumpet the Iraqi elections. It shows how unrealistic they have been about the situation there that they were actually willing to gamble that the elections would have an enduring impact on the insurgency. What it has ultimately had the effect of doing is confirming to most Americans what is probably the ultimate truth, and that is that we are likely be taking heavy causulties and spending lots of money in Iraq far longer than we bargined for.
- The public relations approach the administration has adopted has been a total disaster. It has amounted to little more than the Johnson-McNamara happytalk warmed over for Iraq, and has made Bush look out of touch--a version of reality most likely to be the truth, inmho--and openned him up to criticism not just from Democrats, but also from moderate Republicans eager to take advantage of the conservatives' vulnerabilities. Somehow, the thought of leveling with the American people has never crossed their minds, probably because first they would have to level with Bush, who seems to have a Saddam-like distaste for unfortunate facts.
The current approach the Administration seems to be adopting is the "we're taking you down with us" approach. Rove seems to have decided that until something better comes along, the best the administration will be able to do it to attempt to ensure that while Iraq is hurting the Republicans, the Democrats should not be able to profit from it. This strategy is probably based around an assumption that the Republicans will likely take losses in the mid-term elections over Iraq, since they are the party in power. Slamming the Democrats as weak-kneed liberals would hopefully keep these losses low. Its essentially a resumption of the polarization strategy he utilized during the election. This possibility seems even more plausible to me, in view of the rest of the Republican leadership's unwillingness to soften or apologize for Roves remarks.
So how bad will the partisan atmosphere in Washington get over the next few years? Pretty darn bad would be my guess.
Happy Independance Day, everyone. I'm saying it now, just in case the Republicans declare civil war before July 4.