Assuming we don't get some massive help from foreign countries in Iraq - which is a more reasonable assumption with every passing day - Mr. Bush's plan in Iraq is to hope that America's military might will simply wear the insurgency down until they quit. This, of course, is a bit oversimplified for it fails to acknowledge public opinion. The analysis for evaluating America's chances in Iraq simply comes down to whether the weight of America's military might will cause the insurgency to quit before America runs out of patience with the number of American casualties, the financial costs, and/or our inability to field a sufficient force. My guess is six to twelve years, as Rumsfeld said on Sunday, is not a good sign of our chances.
It seems pretty obvious, finally, to Mr. Bush that this is not going to be a short war and we are going to be in Iraq for a lot longer than two years. This is why he has scheduled his speech. He is buying time in hopes that something will happen. My guess is that his ratings will go up for a while, the declining support for the war will stop for a time, and everyone will conclude he did a great job reading his speech. But, within a month the insurgency will still be there, Americans will continue to be killed, the costs will continue to accrue, and the military will continue to be depleted. At some point, Americans will say enough with the death and the costs. It would seem that Mr. Bush has for the first time in his Administration recognized that the public understands limits. He'll con us for a little while longer - a speech with soldiers in the background, pretty disgusting - but eventually people will get the picture and it will be long before the insurgency gives up. It's a shame though, more death, more money, more stupidity, more lies, and more of everything that is not America.