warning: What follows is pure un-substantiated speculation!!
The Repubs as we now know them are driven by an amalgamation of the Religious Right and the Corporation-First Rich
The Biz people actually ultimately call the shots in that party. They have a long-term strategic alliance with the Church folks.
The Church folks want to get rid of abortion.
However, politically, this would undermine many Repubs who attempt to run as 'regular old Americans', 'mainstream', 'social moderate tax cutters', etc.
The Biz people will not allow strategic harm to come to the party.
So, how will they triangulate this one?
more follows ...
They will need to allow/enable some laws to be passed which restrict the right to choose.
To prevent a political firestorm, these changes to the law will have to be presented as
- simple inevitabilities resulting from strict reading of the Constitution
- political compromises necessary to avoid further more drastic socio-political upheavals and resulting restrictions, etc
The key for Repubs is then to appoint justices who are not afraid
- to write or sign-on to narrow / strict constructionist opinions
- to make decisions without solid grounding in law based on political/social pressure
- to make decisions which legitimize or discount fear-triggering, extra-legal actions by the extremists as being valid political expression
Actually all high courts in all countries take political/social realities into account, so I don't want to demonize such.
And all democratic nations allow for protest by a variety of groups, which probably do engender fear and a sense pressure for their opponents.
Yet, a sane high court's job is to correctly negotiate the turmoil which is democracy, to inject balance and not to pander, or avoid the difficult issues at hand.
The essence of a progressive court will be strong leaders who care about the long-term and subtle side-effects of their decisions. For this you need people with big minds and hearts as well as a grasp of the details of issues.
The court should not legislate, but it does in effect lead, just as the other branches of govt do. It leads by tackling complexity, subtlety, balance; by preserving the spirit of the law and of democracy itself.
The essence of a regressive court in a time of polarization and triangulation strategies, will be narrow-minded literalist readings and appeasement of radical agendas, a failure to lead, a failure to be big and to be genuine.
Think of the Repubs as a football team. Everybody has their assigned role.
Some are assigned to be the agitators, the overtly whacko. Their job on the team is to scare the other side.
Others have a job of appearing to be neutral or compromisers or 'by-the-book' people. They actually write the law, 'balancing' the extremism generated by their own side against the fear on the other side of that extremism.
The quarterback's job is to direct it all and say thank you to each member for doing their job and nothing more.
In such a scenario, don't expect all members of the Repub team to reveal all aspects of themselves, ie, don't expect judges to say what they really think or want. They're just there to do their job within the team. Look at the team dynamics to get the picture.
You might object and point out that any political party or movement works this way, right, left and center.
I would hope that what we are for, is a party that says what it really means and really wants, that is not about a hidden agenda. That we're not gaming each other and not gaming the nation. That would be a difference and a reason for hope.
We need to be a party that's about a nation for the good of all and which is upfront about this and upfront about how it goes about it.
So we can tackle any party which wants a nation that, because it is not for the good of all, can only be achieved by gaming people and the system.
If you think the Repubs are the party of extremists, in one sense that's true, they are in bed with that and thus driven by those concerns.
You might then feel they have changed or disproven that when they behave otherwise.
But if you think of them as the party which plays off the extremists, the no-taxers and the complacent/fearful in a weird symphony, you will be less surprised, fooled and rolled-over by it all.
When you understand them that way, it's clear they are not a force you can defeat by disproving singular extremist positions, it's more like a whole ignorant-selfish-default-to-easy-answer mode that needs to be addressed through long-term, consistent attention.
It calls for leadership, not just response to stimuli. If you are just a out-of-touch responder who doesn't get the game, the perp will figure out how to game your response patterns.
Don't expect Roe to be overturned any time soon, for example with the help of Roberts. Instead expect a gradual undermining of choice.
Don't expect Roberts to say he doesn't like Roe or to publically celebrate its demise. Instead expect a private champagne toast amongst the Repub team on the days where his decisions undermine it a bit further.
So what, you may ask, is that so bad?
It's not bad per se, could be worse, but it's bad not to understand the football team you are playing against and potentially being played by.
The less aware of the game you are, the more yardage you lose.
It's hard to defend a 1-yard line.