Tim Tagaris
laughs at Cook's benchmarks for success in today's OH-02 special election.
From the Cook Political Report:
If Schmidt's victory margin is in double digits, this tells us that there is not much of an anti-GOP wind in Ohio right now. If the margin is say six to nine points for Schmidt, then there is a wind, but certainly no hurricane. A Schmidt win of less than five points should be a very serious warning sign for Ohio Republicans that something is very, very wrong, while a Hackett victory would be a devastating blow to the Ohio GOP.
Talk about lowering the bar for Ohio's Republican Party. To say that a 6 to 9 point spread is indicative of "wind but no hurricane" is ridiculous. Anything within 10, in a district that has recently gone Republican by more than fifty percentage points, shows the ship has already sunk for the Ohio Republican Party--they have until Nov. 2006 to salvage whateer wreckage they can.
OH-2 Past Election Results:
- 72% to 28%
- 74% to 26%
- 74% to 23%
- 76% to 24%
This race should never have become competitive. If it was up to the DCCC, it never would have become competitive. Proving that any district can be competitive upsets the Natural Order of Things in DC -- the one that states that only they decides where to compete.
It's all about eliminating gatekeepers. We can't depend on DC to recruit candidates, run effective races, spread the playing field, and win. Not as long as we remain Democrats. But we can learn from OH-02 and realize that the local parties have the power to recruit great candidates, and accomplishing that, the power to tap into a reservoir of local and nationwide support.
This race is so completely off DC's radar screen it's not even funny. While it has dominated the lefty blogosphere for about a month, the DC party establishment is completely oblivious to it.
Win or lose, we made this a contest when no one thought it possible. And we did it with a great candidate, an aggressive campaign (which would've been squelched had the DCCC gotten to it earlier, so be thankful for their late entry), and the collective force of thousands of people around the country.
Power is devolving from DC, and the ultimate beneficiaries will be us, the people of the United States of America.
