From
PowerSwitch
So maybe everything is fine until that $100 barrel mark. People talk of an oil crisis, but surely, since we are waiting for the $100 barrel, there is nothing to worry about. Right? Wrong. Around the world, silent to us, the oil crisis has truly begun. They are at the beginning of what some are calling `The Great Decline'.
Hubbard's Peak is now in sight. Though we in the west have not felt the effects very much. People continue to purchase large SUV's because well... they need them. Especially in the west where the distance from point A to point B is large.
The oil crisis is getting particularly acute in The Philippines. Already, President Macapagal-Arroyo is talking of rationing oil if prices don't fall and conservation efforts not made. Furthermore, there are calls for political unity across all parties, as well as demand for the public to take this problem seriously. "We cannot afford a divided nation amid this oil crisis. We have to unite to ensure and survive, and let not the people blame their leaders for not taking up
the challenge"
There are signs, even here in the western world.
The signs of an oil crisis are already here in the UK, in Europe and also in the US, even if is still too inaudible to be heard as a serious warning by the general public. However, France's prime minister, Dominique de Villepin is already giving that very warning when he told a news conference on the 16th August 2005 that, "This crisis, we know, is likely to last. All the factors have come together for oil to remain expensive in the years and decades to come," he said. "Our refining capacity is saturated and cannot adequately cope with French demand."
But there's still plenty of oil right? Sure, until 2050 or so, but we have to plan now if we want to survive. That's what Iran is doing.
Iran, a country that has passed its oil production peak, is looking to build domestic nuclear power to compensate, and maybe also to develop nuclear weaponry to keep at bay outside interests with eyes on its remaining reserves. With America none too keen on this situation, the potential for conflict, as a result of the oil crisis, is high, and will make the silent oil crisis a very loud one.
What about the Saudis? The answer is "We don't know". They don't share their data on their remaining reserves with anyone on the outside. We simply have no idea how much they have left.
The silent oil crisis
...is already damaging many parts of the world where it is having a similar effect to how the 1970s oil crises affected the world. There are two obvious options left for everyone in the oil game, on whatever level. Those options are that you compete or you concede.
There are few good solutions left. The arctic? The world will slurp that down in a second. What about oil shale? There is plenty of that right? Sure but it is difficult to process , contributes to global warming and converting it to fuel is a net energy loss. No, fossil suels are just about done, time to find something else.