10 days (count 'em) since Jan.19 Kerry and Bush have been tied in
this daily poll. With an MOE of 3% (see
my Mar.16 diary entry for calculating this from the 1500 sample size) we can expect that on 5 of those days either Kerry or Bush were,
in fact, among the 100 million electorate, ahead by two or more points,
and in 2 of those 5 Kerry or Bush was ahead by four or more points. That is,
today, there is a even chance, 50%, that Kerry or Bush is
actually ahead, say, 47 to 45, or more. And a 1 in 5, 20%, chance that one of them is ahead, say, 48 to 44, or more.
Now, before Nov.2 rolls around we may well see 20 ties in this poll. Then we can expect that on 1 of those "tied" days the actual margin between them was six points or more. There's the level of confidence of 95% business; 95%=.95=1-.05=1-1/20.
(By the by, it's been 40 days since the reported margin has been greater than 4. So we're "due", statistically, tie or no, to see a margin of at least 5 one of these coming days!)