Yesterday, I posted the opening in what will be a series of profiles of potentially vulnerable GOP seats. That diary can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/12/193114/114. Based on the national climate (if it holds), we should be in position to make some big gains in 2006; the Presidential approval numbers, Congressional approval numbers, and Generic ballot numbers compare with those in late 1993, before the GOP sweep of 1994.
I listed fairly objective criteria for determining the potential opportunities in yesterday's diary. To summarize, I assigned each of the 435 districts a partisan score based on the Pres. results in the last two elections and Charlie Cook's Partisan Index Score. I then looked at the incumbent's own electoral history and any special factors that may be at work. This method yielded a list of 75 GOP seats. Yesterday's diary dealt with 8 in New England and New Jersey. Today I focus on fully 13 potential pickups in New York and Pennsylvania alone.
A quick note about the maps in these two states. The New York map is a bipartisan product of the Dem Assembly and GOP Senate and governor. It was drafted essentially as an incumbent protection plan, with the state losing 1 upstate seat from each party.
The Pennsylvania map is a GOP gerrymander pure and simple. Crafted by a GOP legislature and governor, it was designed to turn a 11-10 GOP edge into 13-6. It almost worked; Dem Tim Holden beat GOP incumbent George Gekas in a GOP district rather than do what the GOP intended: retire (like former Rep. Bob Borski) or fight a Dem in the primary (like former Rep. Frank Mascara). The end result, however, was that the GOP holds 12 seats, but many tenuously.
Without further ado, here are the target districts in these states:
New York 03
Long Island's Nassau County Republican machine was a force to be reckoned with for decades. It produced former Sen. Al D'Amato, among others. Long Island has been trending Dem for a decade now, and the GOP is left with only one of its five House seats (NY-05 is split between western Long Island and New York City) (Dems took NY-04 in 1996, NY-02 in 2000, and NY-01 in 2002). That seat is the third district, which includes roughly half of Nassau County. It covers much of the southern shoreline of Long Island, taking in the old railroad resort of Long Beach, plus Baldwin, Merrick and Massapequa in Nassau County and Amityville, Lindenhurst, most of Babylon, Bay Shore and Islip in Suffolk County. From there, the 3d runs north all the way to Long Island Sound. The District has a 51.5% Dem partisan score--it went for Gore by 8 points in 2000, but Bush by 5 in '04. The incumbent is Peter King, a veteran Republican with a penchant for inserting his foot in his mouth. King nonetheless took 73% in 2000 and 63% in 2004 against decently financed Dems. This may be the year to take him out and finish turning Long Island blue.
New York 13
The 13th District is Staten Island plus a few adjacent neighborhoods with similar demographics over the Verrazano Narrows Bridge in Brooklyn. These include heavily Catholic and Italian Bay Ridge and Bensonhurst--middle-class enclaves with large single-family houses and small apartment buildings. It is heavily Italian and the only New York City district held by the GOP. It was represented by Susan Molinari for years before she left in 1997 to become a talk show host. The Dems had high hopes in the 1997 Special Election to replace her, but GOPer Vito Fossella was swept in on Giuliani's coattails that year. The District has a partisan score of 50.5% Dem. Fossella took 71% against a nearly invisible challenger in 2002 and only 59% in 2004 against a reasonably funded opponent. He, like King, can be a target in a good Dem year.
New York 24
The 24th Congressional District of New York sprawls through parts of 11 counties in central New York, few of them heavily populated. The biggest centers are Utica and Rome in Oneida County and Auburn in Cayuga County, which sits amidst the narrow Finger Lakes. The district has a partisan score of 48.8% Dem. The Congressman is Sherwood Boehlert, a moderate Repub who has been described as the Lincoln Chafee of the House. He is well liked; he was unopposed in the 2002 general election and took 57% against an underfunded Dem and a Conservative Party candidate in 2004. Therein lies the reason for this district's inclusion. Boehlert regularly faces intraparty competition and/or third party challenges from the right. 2006 looks to be no exception. Should Boehlert go down in the primary, Dems should be poised to pick up the seat. Likewise, there is a chance for an upset in a 3-way race.
New York 26
The 26th Congressional District of New York covers much of western New York. About half its people are in the suburbs of Buffalo in Erie and Niagara Counties, though none in the city of Buffalo itself. It extends from the city limits of Buffalo to the city limits of Rochester and includes that city's northwestern suburbs. In between is rural and small town territory. It is a lean-GOP district: 46.3% Dem. The Congressman is none other than whiny NRCC Chairman Tom Reynolds. Reynolds coasted until 2004, when he got a strong challenge from wealthy Dem Jack Davis. Reynolds took only 56% (even with Bush in the district), and I believe Davis is back for a 2d try, a la Bean-Crane 2004.
New York 29
The 29th Congressional District of New York includes much of the state's Southern Tier, from Elmira to Cattaraugus County; to the north it also includes the westernmost of the Finger Lakes and the southern suburbs of Rochester. It is only 44.8% Dem; it is the most GOP district in New York. It is on this list because the Congressman is freshman Randy Kuhl, who won in 2004 51-41 (with a Conservative Party candidate getting the remainder) against well-funded but mistake prone Dem Samara Barend. Kuhl will be a target in 2006 before he becomes entrenched.
Pennsylvania 03
The 3d Congressional District of Pennsylvania occupies the northwest corner of the state--all of Erie County, most of Mercer, Crawford and Butler Counties and about half of Warren, Venango, and Armstrong Counties. Erie County has 43% of the district's population, and had modest population gains from 1990 to 2003. Growth has been greater in Butler County, the northern edge of the Pittsburgh metropolitan area, while other parts of the district have lost population. Politically, the mix of industrial and rural voters makes for closely balanced territory. The district is 47.8% Dem. The Congressman is Phil English, a Gingrich revolutionary first elected in 1994. He survived 1996 51-49 and has coasted since. In 2004, however, a moderately funded Dem held him to a 60-40 margin. With the right candidate, this is a swing district that can return to the Dems.
Pennsylvania 04
The 4th Congressional District of Pennsylvania includes much of this steel country, plus a large swath of suburban Pittsburgh. The 4th begins around Farrell in Mercer County, located as close to Erie as to Pittsburgh, then travels south along Route 60 through steel-mill country in Lawrence and Beaver Counties. It then turns to the east, taking in a fast-growing tier of suburban southern Butler County and the longer-established Allegheny County suburbs north of Pittsburgh: old-money Sewickley and Fox Chapel; affluent McCandless and middle-class Ross in the North Hills. It also takes in a tiny portion of Westmoreland County. The district is 46.8% Dem. It was represented by conservative Dem Ron Klink until he left to run against Rick Santorum in 2000. Melissa Hart picked up the seat then and solidified herself through redistricting, but the district remains winnable. Hart took 65% in '02 and 64% in '04 against token opposition.
Pennsylvania 06
This has been a race focused on here a dKos. Then-state legislator Jim Gerlach monkeyed around with the boundaries to craft this district for himself in 2002. It includes parts of the countryside in Chester, Berks and Montgomery Counties. Chester County has the highest median income levels in Pennsylvania and is the fastest growing major county in the state. The boundaries of the 6th District are irregular. Geographically, the main body of the district is northern Chester County, including Coatesville, Downingtown and Phoenixville, and southern Berks County. The district also includes a salient that runs northward in eastern Berks County. There is another salient, much more heavily populated, reaching south into Montgomery County from Pottstown to Lower Merion Township. The district includes Valley Forge and most of the Main Line suburbs--Ardmore, Bryn Mawr, part of Paoli--and it includes a part but not all of Reading. This district is 51.8% Dem. Gerlach won a 51-49 race in 2002 and again in 2004. This may be the number one pickup opportunity in the nation for the Dems.
Pennsylvania 07
The 7th Congressional District of Pennsylvania includes almost all of Delaware County, except for a few towns with large black populations that are appended to Philadelphia's 1st District. The 7th extends north to include a few Montgomery County suburbs, such as modest Conshohocken, an old Schuylkill River factory town, affluent Upper Merion Township and King of Prussia, an edge city where the Schuylkill Expressway intersects the Pennsylvania Turnpike. The 7th takes in southeastern Chester County, including the commercial hub of West Chester and a few further-out suburbs such as Malvern and part of Paoli. It is among the most Democratic seats held by GOPers; its partisan score is 53.5% Dem. The Congressman is entrenched GOPer Curt Weldon. Weldon won 66-34 against token opposition in '02, but then won only 60-40 in 2004 against an opponent who put his name on the ballot weeks before the election to fill the space. Against a strong challenger in a district strongly trending Dem, Weldon could well be upset.
Pennsylvania 08
The 8th Congressional District of Pennsylvania includes all of Bucks County, a tiny finger of Montgomery County around Willow Grove and parts of two wards in Northeast Philadelphia. This has been a much blogged race as well since longtime GOP incumbent Jim Greenwood bowed out late in 2004 and was replaced by wingnut Mike Fitzpatrick. The Dems stuck with newcomer and ultimately weak candidate Ginny Schrader in a district that is 53% Dem, and Fitzpatrick won 56-44. This is already a top Dem target.
Pennsylvania 10
The 10th Congressional District of Pennsylvania includes all of northeast Pennsylvania except for Scranton, Wilkes-Barre and fast-growing Monroe County, which are in the 11th District. The exclusion of these Dem areas in 2002 converted the 10th from a swing district to what should be and has been a solid GOP district (the Dem percentage is 41.8). GOP congressman Don Sherwood, a rubber stamp, has not been opposed in either '02 or '04. Why, then, is it on this list? Intangibles. Sherwood was involved in a scandal involving allegations of assaulting a woman with whom he was having an affair. He is opposed by Dem veteran Chris Carney, who is running a Paul Hackett-like campaign. And this district is not as GOP as the one Hackett nearly won.
Pennsylvania 15
The 15th Congressional District of Pennsylvania consists of the Lehigh Valley plus a small adjoining slice of northern Montgomery County. Politically, this has long been a classic swing area, located at the intersection of heavily Democratic industrial precincts and the Republican farmlands of the Pennsylvania Dutch Country. It has a partisan score of 51.5% Dem. This district was represented by centrist Dem Paul McHale until his retirement in 1998. Pat Toomey (yes, that Pat Toomey) picked up the seat for the GOP that year, winning something of an upset over a Dem state Senator who ran a crappy campaign. When Toomey left after only three terms to challenge Arlen Specter in 2004, Dems had high hopes of getting it back. Unfortunately, their recruiting was poor and GOPer Charlie Dent won handily, 60-40. With a stronger candidate, the Dems can get this seat back.
Pennsylvania 18
Like Gerlach, then state legislator Tim Murphy drew himself a district in 2002. The 18th Congressional District of Pennsylvania covers an irregularly shaped swath of the southern part of the Pittsburgh metropolitan area and was designed by Republican redistricters to maximize the Republican vote. It includes most of southern Allegheny County, most of Westmoreland County to the east and most of Washington County to the west; it stretches from the Pittsburgh city limit to the West Virginia border. It is 47.5% Dem. Murphy has won his two races 60-40 and 63-37 against weak opposition. Dems recently received a blow when former State Treasurer Barbara Hafer declined to challenge Murphy. With a strong challenger, this district is winnable.