Yesterday, I posted the fifth in what will be a series of profiles of potentially vulnerable GOP seats. That diary included the Southern states and can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/19/16250/0529. The fourth installment covered Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. It can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/16/14460/8925. The third installment covered West Virginia, Ohio, and Michigan. It can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/14/181441/929. The second covered New York and Pennsylvania and can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/13/182810/480. The first included New England and New Jersey and can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/12/193114/114
NOTE: The following three paragraphs have appeared in the previous diaries; if you've read those, skip ahead.
Based on the national climate (if it holds), we should be in position to make some big gains in 2006; the Presidential approval numbers, Congressional approval numbers, and Generic ballot numbers compare with those in late 1993, before the GOP sweep of 1994.
I base my assessment of where we can win on the district's partisan makeup (I assign a score based on averaging Gore's share of the 2000 2-party vote with Kerry's 2004 share plus one and then averaging that number with Charlie Cook's partisan voting index score), the incumbent's winning percentages in 2002 and 2004, and special circumstances surrounding the incumbent or known challengers.
I included: 1. any district where the partisan score was at least 45 (meaning generic R beats generic D 55-45 in a neutral year) and the incumbent won with less than 65% of the two party vote in 2004; 2. any district in which the partisan score was under 45, but the incumbent won with less than 60% in 2004; 3. any open seat in which the partisan score is 40 or above; and 4. 3 special circumstances: Ohio 18 (Bob Ney is connected to coingate) and Pennsylvania 10 (Don Sherwood has a personal scandal and is facing a military vet challenging the GOP line on Iraq; potentially Hackett II in a less GOP district). I also excluded Kentucky 4 and Washington 5, two 2004 open seats in GOP districts the GOPer won by over 10 points in 2004, and Ohio 2, where Paul Hackett looks unlikely to seek a rematch with Jean Schmidt.
In this installment, I focus on the plains and the mountains--the 12 fairly sparsely populated states in the middle of the country, from Iowa and Missouri west to Idaho and Nevada. I do not include Arizona or New Mexico; they will be included with the west coast states in the next installment.). Of these states, five have target races. We already hold the only seat in both the Dakotas, and I don't see opportunities in Missouri, Nebraska, Montana, Idaho, or Utah. Of the remaining states, Iowa has the best redistricting model in the nation: a nonpartisan commission using objective criteria to form districts. Colorado has a court-drawn plan that has been a marginal boon to Dems. Nevada is a bipartisan map with one explicitly Dem district consisting of the city of Las Vegas, one even swing district consisting of Las Vegas' suburbs, and one explicitly GOP district encompassing the rest of the state (about 99% of the land area). Kansas is a GOP gerrymander intended to oust the lone Dem Congressman, Dennis Moore.
On to the Districts:
Iowa 01 (open seat)
The 1st Congressional District of Iowa covers much of northeast Iowa, including the Mississippi riverfront from McGregor south to Davenport, Iowa's part of the Quad Cities, and heading west 100 miles as far as Butler County. It is quite possibly the best pickup opportunity the Dems have in the nation. It is a district that is 54.8% Dem where the incumbent GOPer, Jim Nussle, is leaving to run for governor. Both Gore and Kerry won this district 54-46, and there is no reason a Dem Congressional candidate shouldn't in 2006.
Iowa 02 (Jim Leach)
The 2d Congressional District is an eastern Iowa district centered on Iowa City and Cedar Rapids. It is by most measures Iowa's most Democratic congressional district, thanks in large part to big Democratic majorities in Iowa City's Johnson County; Cedar Rapids's Linn County has also been inclined toward the Democrats in recent years. It went for both Gore and Kerry by comfortable margins and has a partisan score of 56.5% Dem--making it the second most Democratic seat on this target list after Connecticut 02. The incumbent is longtime veteran Jim Leach, an odd duck who is generally considered to be a maverick and who does not accept PAC money (and does not raise much generally). As a result, he is outspent nearly every time he is seriously challenged. The 2002 remap hacked up his old district, so he chose to run here in this far more Democratic district. The Dems seriously challenged him in 2002, but he rode the Iraq coattails to a 53-47 win. In 2004, he got a fairly low-profile challenger and won 60-40. It's hard to see, however, how he holds this district against a serious Dem in a strong Dem year--especially with little financing.
Iowa 04 (Tom Latham)
The 4th Congressional District includes most of central and northern Iowa. It covers 28 counties. The district does not include Des Moines, but counties around Des Moines cast more than one-third of its votes. Like Iowa, the 4th District is closely divided politically: George W. Bush carried the district 49%-48% in 2000 and 51%-48% in 2004. Its net partisan rating is 49.5% Dem. The incumbent is Tom Latham, who succeeded fellow GOPer Fred "Gopher" Grandy in 1994. Latham used to have a relatively safe GOP district until the 2002 remap. Dems targeted him in 2002, but like Nussle and Leach, he survived in this GOP year, 56-44. Against a weaker opponent in 2004, he won 61-39. His is the hardest of the three Iowa districts to win, but in a strong Dem year, an upset is possible.
Kansas 02 (Jim Ryun)
Topeka and Manhattan, Fort Riley and Fort Leavenworth, the wheat-growing counties and the Balkans--most of eastern Kansas except the Kansas City metropolitan area--make up the 2d Congressional District. The 2002 redistricting added Miami County and a part of Lawrence west of Iowa Street, but not the University of Kansas campus. The Dem strength in this district can be found in Topeka. The district only 42.5% Dem, but Ryun has been pushed of late. He won only 61-39 against a token challenger in 2002 and then was held to a 58-42 win over stronger candidate Nancy Boyda in 2004 despite Bush's coattails. If Boyda or another strong Dem runs in 2006, this could be an upset.
Colorado 04 (Marilyn Musgrave)
The 4th Congressional District of Colorado contains almost all of the High Plains plus the medium-sized and fast-growing area around Greeley, Fort Collins and Loveland--the northern end of the densely populated Front Range, off I-25 toward Cheyenne, Wyoming. It includes all of fast-growing Larimer County just east of the mountains and reaches into Boulder County to pick up the city of Longmont. To the east is Weld County, somewhat less fast-growing and more conservative in its politics. It is generally a GOP district. It has sent GOPers to Congress for years, including current Sen. Wayne Allard and former Sen. Hank Brown. The district is 40.8% Dem overall. This will be competitive because of the current seatholder, Marilyn Musgrave. Since her first election in 2002, she has done little for her constituents; rather, she has used her position for the sole purpose of denouncing gays and bashing gay marriage. As a result, her constituents have given her a rough time in what should not be a tough district. She won 57-43 in 2002, but only 51-49 (I'm counting the Green candidate's 4% toward the Dems) in 2004. Now, she's a top target on everyone's radar.
Colorado 07 (open seat)
Like Iowa 01, this is an excellent open seat pickup opportunity. The 7th Congressional District of Colorado, newly created for the 2002 elections, covers parts of three counties and most of the inner Denver suburbs. The bulk of its land area, but only 15% of its voters, are in Adams County, which includes the industrial zone along the South Platte River and the Rocky Mountain Arsenal National Wildlife Refuge. Adams County has long been the most Democratic of the suburban Denver counties, but its political future cannot be predicted safely: This empty area is likely to fill up with new subdivisions in the next decade. Aurora, partly in Adams County with a larger part in Arapahoe County, has long been Republican. But with more black and Latino residents, it has been trending Democratic. Lakewood and the other towns in Jefferson County (or Jeffco, as people call it) is perhaps Colorado's premier political battleground. Long solidly Republican, it is now more marginal. And it is crucial here: Jeffco has 62% of the 7th District's voters. The judge who handed down the redistricting plan deliberately chose to make the 7th evenly divided between the parties, and so it has been. The areas within its boundaries voted 50%-49% for Al Gore in 2000 and 51%-48% for John Kerry in 2004, and in the 2002 House election this was the most closely divided district in the nation. It is overall 52% Dem. With incumbent Bob Beauprez running for governor, this seat is near the top of Dem target lists.
Wyoming at Large (Barbara Cubin)
Wyoming is known as a conservative state with some justification. It went for Bush by wide margins twice, and overall is only 30.5% Dem. This makes its lone Congressional district tied with FL-01, ID-01, and GA-06 as the 14th most Republican seat in the nation. The Dems, however, just elected a governor in 2002 who is very popular. The incumbent, Barbara Cubin, is an out and out loon. She regularly underperforms GOP strength in the state. She won only 63-37 against a placeholder in 2002 and only 57-43 against a decent challenger in 2004. Western GOPers have not exactly been enamored with the administration and its Congressional lackeys lately, and a strong Dem could well upset Cubin.
Nevada 02 (open seat)
The 2d Congressional District of Nevada takes in the vast majority of Nevada's land. Excluding single-member states, this is the largest congressional district in the nation. After the 2000 Census results came in, two districts were created entirely within Clark County, which had 69% of the state's population; the 2d consisted of all the other counties, plus small slices of Clark County. About one-half of the 2d's population is in Washoe County, which contains Reno and Sparks. Half a century ago, Reno was Nevada's largest city. It has grown vastly, but vastly less than Las Vegas, and is now overshadowed by it, and has become the state's third-largest city behind Henderson. Reno's casinos were hit hard by Indian casinos in California. Its growth has been matched and more by growth around Lake Tahoe just to the west. People here are from all over: the Tahoe communities of Stateline, Zephyr Cove and Incline Village were three of the top eight American cities with the smallest percentage of residents born in the state. Historically, Reno has been Republican and Las Vegas Democratic. In the 1990s, when the federal government was widely viewed as unfriendly to mining, grazing and timber interests, the Cow Counties, as the counties outside Reno and Las Vegas are called, became even more Republican. All that has made the 2d District heavily Republican. It is just 41.5% Dem. Its incumbent, Jim Gibbons, is running for governor, however. As an open seat in a Dem year, an upset is possible here with the right candidate.
Nevada 03 (Jon Porter)
The 3d Congressional District is a Y-shaped segment of Nevada's Clark County made up of most of the suburbs of Las Vegas. It includes the south end of the Las Vegas Strip and McCarran International Airport and spreads west, northeast and south. Southeast of Las Vegas, the district takes in two additional population hubs: Henderson, the fastest-growing city in the United States in the 1990s, and Boulder City, originally built for federal workers at Hoover Dam. The 3d includes the Nevada halves of Lake Mead and Lake Mohave, on the Arizona border, and the state's southernmost tip. The 3d District is a creature of redistricting, drawn after the 2000 Census so that the new district would have almost a precisely equal number of registered Democrats and registered Republicans. Clark County historically was the most Democratic part of Nevada, but the newcomers attracted to the state in the 1990s have tilted toward Republicans; the result is this closely divided district, with small pluralities for Al Gore in 2000 and George W. Bush in 2004. Overall, this district is 50.8% Dem. The incumbent is Jon Porter, who gave Dem Shelley Berkley a tough challenge in the old 1st District in 2000 before deciding to run for the newly created 3d in 2002. The Dems nominated a deeply flawed candidate who lost to Porter 60-40. In 2004, well funded challenger Tom Gallagher improved that number to 57-43. In a Dem year with a strong challenger, Porter should be vulnerable.