It is my opinion that George W. Bush will survive this. I mentioned once before that his poll numbers prior to the hurricane were so low that they couldn't get much worse unless he invented a way to alienate Christians. Where can he go but up?
But my comments aren't about room for improvement. My comments are about the reasonableness of liberal responses to the New Orleans disaster.
That New Orleans was devastated by a hurricane isn't that out of the ordinary, as cities along the gulf coast are crushed occasionally enough to make it seem like a normal thing to those who don't live here. So, there is some attitudinal static intertia that needs to be overcome. If any static inertia (the attitude that the status quo is just fine) was overcome it, was with respect to non-hurricane related problems existing long before the storm.
For several days, my television was covered with images of people so poor they couldn't leave their homes, and so infirm they were dying in the streets, so poorly educated that they took to building de facto looting gangs. This is so surreal to many that it shocks middle America.
My prediction? Nothing will come of all this. Bush's numbers will rebound because he didn't cause the hurricanes. People listening to much of the over-the-top criticism will recoil, feeling that he is being hit too hard (garnering him sympathy). This happened to Bush H.W. when Dan Rather set him up in an interview to talk about Iran Contra without him knowing about it (strong published research on this sympathy effect).
Anyway, as long as the public debate is about hurricane and hurricane response, Bush will do just fine. He will recover. He could have been more responsive, but he shouldn't bare the brunt! If the argument is framed around matters of poverty (how the hell did a city exist with 30%+ poverty levels?!?!), he is dead in the water.
My prediction is predicated on the knowledge that the media will shift attention away from poverty and illness because it doesn't have a measurable water-line. This week, we will see idiots like Anne Curry marking dropping water-lines in the Big Easy. Mom and Pop SUV will go back to drinking Star Bucks on the way to closing one more interest only mortgage.