I'm not saying those who fear an overturning of Roe shouldn't be concerned, but I think the math of some of my fellow diarists is off.
Right now, there are 2 on the court who would overturn Roe, 6 who would not, and 1 we're not sure of (Roberts). If O'Connor is replaced by Alito, then we're at 2 who would overturn, 5 who would not, and 2 we're not sure of. Of the newbies, I agree that Alito would likely vote to overturn, but suspect Roberts, who seems genuinely more concerned with precedent, would not. Either way, even if both Roberts and Alito voted to overturn Roe, it would survive 5-4.
Alito's confirmation is not in itself a death-blow to Roe, by any possible mathematics. But it does assure (assuming Stevens and Ginsburg hold on) that the 2008 election could have a far greater impact on Roe than 2004. Again, I'm not trying to diminish importance here -- I just hate when we're portrayed as doomsaying fantacists, and its best not to give the other side any more ammunition by all the hyberbolic "abortion will be illegal in months!!" postings.