It has been drowned out a bit by the focus on the Alito hearings, but Canada has a federal election scheduled for Jan. 23. And the Conservative Party is
headed for a majority government.
Stephen Harper's Conservative Party is at 38 percent in the polls, nine points ahead of the incumbent Liberal party. The social-democratic NDP has 16 percent, the Green Party 5, and the Quebec-separatist Bloc Quebecois 12.
American conservative pundits are sure to boast that the Liberals' fall is due to their, well, liberalism - legalizing gay marriage, opposing the war in Iraq. The truth is almost exactly the opposite.
Despite the name, the Liberals are not really liberal anymore, at least not by Canadian standards. Under their tenure, most of Canada's social programs have been slashed to American levels - or even below them, in the case of post-secondary education. They have raised payroll taxes, which hit the poor harder, while cutting income taxes, which favors the rich. The only genuinely left-wing parties in Canada are the Bloc, which campaigns only in Quebec, and the NDP, which has never received more than 20 percent of the vote in its 70-year history. (The Green ideology is less clear; they are progressive on environmental issues but less so on fiscal and tax matters.)
The reason the Conservatives are winning now, in contrast to their defeat 18 months ago, is that they have convinced Canadians that they are not Bush North. They have promised not to send Canadian troops to Iraq. They have promised not to use the notwithstanding clause to overturn gay marriage - effectively, that means it cannot be overturned. Instead of slashing social programs, they promise to improve them slightly. So far leftward have they staked out their turf that Canada's resident Ann Coulter clone is griping that the Conservatives are not much different from the Liberals.
The likely truth is that the Conservatives are campaigning like Bush did in 2000, pretending to be moderate. Just as he went right after winning office, a majority would see them go rightward. They would not participate in Iraq, but expect to see at least some privatization of the health-care system. Tax cuts are likely to replace the promised wait-times guarantee and daycare allowance.
What can we learn from the Liberals' defeat? Here are the causes:
1) Corruption. There have been a series of scandals - the sponsorship scandal, Option Canada, and now income trusts - that make the Liberals appear dishonest and untrustworthy.
2) Health care. Canada's once-proud health care system has been gutted by budget cuts and is now far below European standards (though, of course, still well ahead of the US). The real problem, of course, is Canadians want American wait times but also American levels of taxation. The Conservatives will likely square this circle the same way the US does - cut 15 percent of the population out of the system entirely.
3) Boredom. Seriously. Canadians feel the need to change parties in office every decade or so.
4) Nationalism. This applies to the French-speaking province of Quebec, which has pretty much given up on Canada and is voting solidly for the separatist Bloc Quebecois party. Expect another (third) referendum on Quebec separation within five years. The last time, the separatists lost by less than 1 percent; this time, they're likely to win.
Canadian politics does not have the vicious polarization that Americans suffer from. Ideology and party are not as strictly aligned. It is far from uncommon for a conservative voter to cast a ballot for the Liberals - and now, vice versa. Only Quebec is polarized - and that is between separatists and federalists, not left and right.
This is why you won't see a Liberal-NDP-Bloc coalition to fight the Conservatives. The Liberals and NDP dislike each other as much as the DLC and netroots of the US Democrats do - in fact much more, as they really are separate parties. The Bloc cares little for Canada and will only promote its own province's interest.
But, certainly, expect to hear some crowing on the other side Jan. 24 morning.