Hearing this morning that Osama bin Laden had issued another audiotape offering a "truce," this time with the United States, I figured I'd be late to the game, that most of the bloggers would have already parsed and analyzed the meaning and significance of bin Laden's message, and that what I wanted to say would be old and stale. But to my surprise, a quick tour of the some of the blogs most likely to have covered the speech showed very little interest. Maybe bin Laden and al Qaeda messages are becoming like the Tom Ridge rainbow of terror warnings, or the
25th launch of the Space Shuttle; something that doesn't capture our attention they way it used to, at least not until something spectacular happens.
In his message, bin Laden not only proposes a truce with the U.S., he also says that al Qaeda is preparing terror strikes within the U.S. Its likely that most analyses you'll see of this message will focus on the conflict between al Qaeda and the United States. It's also been proposed that the message, coming days after the attempt to assassinate Ayhman al-Zawahiri, is to reassure jihadis that the senior figures of al Qaeda are still alive, which is plausible but complicated by the fact that some reports claim that the tape has been dated to December, weeks prior to the attempt on Zawahiri's life. But there's another (not necessarily exclusive) reason why bin Laden may have issued the message, which includes a statement on the importance of rebuilding Iraq and Afghanistan: al Qaeda may be loosing support in Iraq, and he may be trying to regain control of al Qaeda in Iraq.
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Crossposted at The Next Hurrah)
One of the least discussed dynamics in Iraq is the apparent ideological and strategic rift between Al Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and the bin Laden/Zawahiri-led al Qaeda "establishment." Almost a year ago Zarqawi began advocating exapanding operations in Iraq to fighting Shiites and inciting sectarian war between Iraq's Sunni and Shiites. As al Qaeda's Robespierre, he's does not appear constrained by tactical or strategic prudence, which prompted Zawahiri to urge him to stop the beheadings and intentionally targeting civilians.
Zarqawi ignored Zawahiri's advice. Zarqawi may be making progress in inciting civil war between Iraq's Sunni and Shiites, and his stature may be greater among Islamist political fundamentalists outside Iraq, but within Iraq his methods are hurting any effort to foster wider appeal among Iraqis, and fueling conflict between the indigenous Iraqi insurgency and the Jihadis. As the NYT reported last week, fighting between in the Sunni Triangle between the indigenous insurgents and the Jihadis has increased in recent months, and Iraqis have begun to turn against the Jihadis as interlopers with no regard for Iraqi tribal and nationalistic traditions and concerns. Last week outgoing commander of coalition forces in Iraq Lt. General John Vines also said al Queda in Iraq was in "disarray."
So among whatever other reasons may have prompted this message from bin Laden, it's worth considering that it's an olive branch to Iraqis increasingly alienated by the aims and methods of those in Iraq who are acting in the name of al Qaeda. Furthermore, it may be a sign that the global Jihadi movement may be entering a new phase, where the Egyptian and Egyptian-inspired ideological descendents of the Muslim Brotherhood give way--through death, incarceration, and rejection by the even more extreme elements of the Jihadi movement--to the ideological crude brethren of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. This could be an attempt by bin Laden to stave off the transfer of power and influence and inspiration from him to Zarqawi, which could roughly be like the shift of influence from Lenin to Stalin. At the same time, it may reflect concern that Zarqawi is screwing up the image of al Qaeda in Iraq, with possible negative repercussions through all Muslim societies. To use a bit of corporate phraseology, it may be as if bin Laden is trying to rescue his brand's name from the poor care given it by franchisees like Zarqawi.
I hope some of these questions are being pondered by the experts in terrorism and foreign policy, because it would obviously be better to understand bin Laden than just mindlessly react to his public statements. Even better would be if someone in the Bush administration listens to anyone who takes seriously the internal dynamics and possible struggles for power and influence in Al Qaeda. Such attention to the workings of al Qaeda may even lead to a more effective policy against this global terrorist movement by the Bush administration, which would benefit us all.
[UPDATE]
Silly me, this is all a hoax, because the CIA controls everything. At least that's what some of the comments claim. Zarqawi was invented, bin Laden is in a white collar prison sipping daiquiris, and the space landing was simulated on a Hollywood sound stage.
Daily Kos, yet again distinguishing as a haven for those who believe every conspiracy theory about every subject imaginable.