Yesterday over at the
Buckeye State Blog (must reading for anyone interested in Ohio politics), we were speculating in a comment thread about the pick-up opportunities for House seats in Ohio. The consensus in Ohio is that there are five seats legitimately in play: OH-1 (Cranley-D vs. Chabot), OH-2 (Wulsin-D vs. Mean Jean), OH-12 (Shamansky-D vs. Tiberi), OH-15 (Kilroy-D vs. Pryce), and OH-18 (Space-D vs. Padgett). Four of the five Rethuglicans are incumbents.
Winning two should happen. Winning three would be great. Winning all five would be part of a national Democratic landslide.
But there is one race I keep coming back to -- OH-14 (Northeast corner of Ohio, see map) between Lew Katz (D) and Lyin' Steve LaTourette. Katz has said several times on the campaign trail that the road to a Democratic majority in the House goes through the Ohio 14th. I'm not sure that is exactly right. But I am convinced that somewhere nationally we'll have to have one or two upsets in order to take the House. And in upset I mean, a race no one is talking about, like the OH-14. Below are five reasons why I think Katz can win:
1.
Katz is a citizen politician, and it shows. Lew has been a law school professor for most of his career, and he's never run for office. But he has a genuine nature about him that is hard to miss, especially when he speaks with people one-on-one. Lew has said he will only run for three terms ("a promise I made to my wife first"), and unlike the promise Lyin' Steve LaTourette made, you can believe Katz.
2. Katz is sound on Democratic principles. Go to his website and read his positions on Iraq, health care, energy, and education. Those are the points he hits over and over again on the campaign trail, and Democrats (and Independents) across the district find it hard to argue with him.
3. Katz is campaigning, LaTourette is not. As I have diaried before, we're trying to get our Representative, Steven LaTourette, to come to Hiram College to speak about the issues and answer our questions. We continue to get blown off. Even the Republican precinct chair is getting angry. We have money set aside for a nice reception, but he just won't come talk to us. Meanwhile, Katz has been criss-crossing the district over and over again (it is a pretty big district). Saturday he'll be campaigning with the next Governor of Ohio, Ted Strickland, who is speaking in Lake and Geauga counties.
4. No enthusiasm for LaTourette. No bumper stickers. No yard signs (at least here in Portage County). No one really talks about him. LaTourette has picked up a few newspaper endorsements, but that's about it. On the other hand, people are impressed after they speak with Lew.
5. Lew has some money (but he could use a little more!). As I've said, no one nationally is talking about this race, so the fundraising has been very difficult and money is tight. In his Sept. FEC report, Katz shows $50,000 COH, and he's raised $170,000 throughout the campaign. Obviously that is not a lot of money to take on an incumbent, so there are no plans to run TV ads. But he does have enough to make things interesting. He's raised more money than some people in the higher profile races.
Is this race a longshot? Absolutely. Do I think Katz will pull off the upset? Probably not. But I've been saying all along that this race is one where the candidate has positioned himself -- with little name recognition or money -- so that if there is a perfect storm of events, he COULD win. With everything that has gone on in the last few weeks, Katz and his team can now start dreaming of pulling off a huge upset victory.