Money isn't everything.
However, it is necessary for campaigns to answer negative attacks.
Fortunately, campaigns don't have to run as many responses as there were attacks, so the ill-funded challenger can keep pace.
So, in these last crucial weeks, who's got the best chance of survival -- of taking incoming fire?
Let's analyze the poll results.
The polls I'm looking at come from
electoral-vote.com, the site that did such a good job of compiling information about the 2004 election.
Here are our Netroots House Challengers (where there exist independent polls):
PA-07 Joseph Sestak Curt Weldon* Oct 10 3 52% 44% RT Strategies
PA-07 Joseph Sestak Curt Weldon* Sep 27 6 45% 44% Keystone Poll
PA-07 40% 59% 2004 Election
Joseph is fine. We Win this one.
WA-08 Darcy Burner Dave Reichert* Oct 10 3 45% 48% RT Strategies
WA-08 Darcy Burner Dave Reichert* Sep 26 3 48% 50% SurveyUSA
WA-08 Darcy Burner Dave Reichert* Aug 29 3 49% 46% RT Strategies
WA-08 Darcy Burner Dave Reichert* Aug 23 2 41% 54% SurveyUSA
WA-08 47% 52% 2004 Election
Too close to call. Great district.
PA-08 Patrick Murphy Mike Fitzpatrick* Aug 29 3 45% 53% RT Strategies
PA-08 43% 55% 2004 Election
Pretty good lead by Fitzpatrick.
NC-08 Larry Kissell Robin Hayes* Oct 10 3 51% 44% RT Strategies
NC-08 45% 56% 2004 Election
Kissell. 44% for the incumbent is just abysmal. No Senate race.
CO-05 Jay Fawcett Doug Lamborn Oct 07 5 37% 37% Mason-Dixon
CO-05 27% 71% 2004 Election
Awful district, it appears.
NJ-07 Linda Stender Mike Ferguson* Oct 10 3 46% 48% RT Strategies
NJ-07 42% 57% 2004 Election
Tie, at present.
NH-02 Paul Hodes Charlie Bass* Sep 24 10 36% 46% Granite State Poll
NH-02 Paul Hodes Charlie Bass* Sep 14 2 30% 55% Research 2000
NH-02 Paul Hodes Charlie Bass* Jul 31 11 25% 53% Granite State Poll
NH-02 Paul Hodes Charlie Bass* Apr 27 8 35% 42% Granite State Poll
NH-02 38% 58% 2004 Election
Hodes' numbers are fairly far down, difficult district, Bass has been above 50%.
CA-50 Francine Busby Brian Bilbray* Oct 16 4 46% 50% SurveyUSA
CA-50 Francine Busby Brian Bilbray* Sep 12 3 40% 54% SurveyUSA
CA-50 37% 58% 2004 Election
Proving that polls predict elections by showing they also retrodict elections. Terrible district.
ID-01 Larry Grant Bill Sali Oct 10 3 43% 49% RT Strategies
ID-01 31% 70% 2004 Election
MN-01 Tim Walz Gil Gutknecht* Oct 10 3 47% 48% RT Strategies
MN-01 36% 60% 2004 Election
We are ahead (considering margin of error) in only two races:
PA-07 and NC-08.
However, PA-07 is one of the DCCC's "Red to Blue" races. The narrative on the morning after won't be about our efforts, but the efforts of the DCCC.
NC-08 -- now, that one's going to be ours. Let's make sure it happens. Give generously.