My local rag (Chicago Tribune) had a big story today on how Tom DeLay was increasingly in trouble in his district.
Story link. The basic facts, that DeLay is running into some trouble at home, aren't news to anyone here, but it may be signficant that a large regional paper with a strong conservative bent thought this was newsworthy.
Especially since the story was accompanied by an opinion piece entitled "In court of public opinion, he's guilty". Some quotes from both articles below
The first
article was a news story, appearing on page 10 of the first section, titled "Cracks appear in DeLay's home district"
Several recent polls, as well as last November's election results, suggest DeLay's core support among Republican voters is slipping as the allegations against him mount. Some outspoken local Republicans have braved rebukes from party leaders and publicly spoken out against him. Credible Democratic challengers have begun to test the waters in preparation for next year's race. And DeLay himself has stepped up the frequency of his speeches and appearances back home.
DeLay is injured. Not fatally (yet, anyway), but badly enough that that the wolves are beginning to circle
"I think everything here is fine," said Eric Thode, the chairman of the Ft. Bend County Republican Party. "This district is not going to be won by a Democrat."
But Beverly Carter, a Republican precinct chairwoman and publisher of the Ft. Bend Southwest Star, thinks Thode is whistling past the golf course when he pronounces himself untroubled.
"I guarantee you he is just pretending. Eric knows better than that," said Carter, who endorsed DeLay's Democratic opponent in last year's election. "Most people won't say anything bad about Tom because they are afraid of him and what might happen to them. ... But the fact that he was admonished by the ethics committee three times last year, all of that is starting to be noticed."
DeLay is successful, but he reached that success through fear, not through love. He's intimidated opponents and potential rivals. That works wonderfully when things are going your way, but not so well once you show weakness. Then, there's nobody with any incentive to support you. It's telling that the Trib was able to find any Republican, even a low-ranking one, who is willing to state on the record that there are problems.
"This is a man who first ran for Congress saying we need a congressman who is not beholden to lobbyists," said Morrison, who recently decided against another challenge because his mother has fallen ill with cancer. "Now he's become what he campaigned against."
It's too bad that Mr. Morrison decided not to run again, but he's nailed the essential problem that DeLay has. To the voters of his district, he claims to have gone to Washington to clean up the mess there. Instead, he's creating new messes left and right.
"The ethics issues are sort of icing on the cake, or dirt on the grave," said Patricia Baig, a substitute teacher in DeLay's district and self-described lifelong Republican who bought an advertisement in a local paper last month urging protesters to attend an anti-DeLay rally.
Lovely metaphors there. Tip of the iceberg and Carville's line about anvil-throwing also come to mind.
Thode, the Ft. Bend County Republican chairman, acknowledged that DeLay's intervention in the Schiavo case may have alienated some voters. But he said that anger will have dissipated by the time voters really begin focusing on next year's congressional race.
"Clearly, that's one of those that had a visceral response for a lot of people," said Thode. "Six months, twelve months from now, it's a non-story."
Not, however, if the Democrats can help it. They sense an opening created by DeLay's troubles in Washington, and they fully intend to exploit it.
Two weeks ago, former U.S. Rep. Nick Lampson, who lost his seat last year as a result of the redistricting orchestrated by DeLay, announced his intention to move into District 22 and challenge the Republican leader.
An interesting way to close the article. This highlights the most visible bit of overreach that DeLay is guilty of, and then pivots to focus on an upcoming challenger.
Now, for the opinion article. This ran in the Perspective section, and was written by two political science professors.
I'm only going to quote a bit of this article. It's worth reading in full, though. It's about political corruption in general and people's reactions to it. The interesting thing is that DeLay is used as a sort of standard example for an article about corruption.
In a recent letter to constituents, Rep. Tom DeLay writes that he has "never been found to have violated any law or rule by anyone." He goes on to accuse his critics of trying to criminalize "politics."
While the House majority leader and Texas Republican may or may not have broken any laws, and no firm evidence has yet been presented that he has, he still may be in serious trouble in the court of public opinion.
The main thrust of the article is that while DeLay may managed to avoid any formal penalties for corruption, either by the House Ethics Committee or by the courts, it may not matter. He has acquired the reputation of being a corrupt politician, and that reputation is almost impossible to shake off.
Furthermore, in our polls, citizens who said they were "born-again Christians" or described themselves as "conservative"--a fairly high number of individuals, all of whom would likely support many of the stands taken by DeLay--were especially likely to think this way. Is it corrupt when a government official helps an unemployed friend land a job? Is it corrupt when a candidate wins votes by promising to fix potholes on particular streets?
By statistically significant margins, conservative or born-again Americans were more inclined to say "yes."
To date, they continue to vote for him, but when combined with the first article, or earlier stories about drops in support, it presents an interesting picture. If enough mud sticks to DeLay, it's possible that the enthusiasm of his conservative base will be dampened, and then he's really really in trouble.
So while DeLay might not have broken the law, his protests show he just doesn't understand that for a lot of voters, perhaps including many of his natural constituents, it isn't about breaking the law, it's about playing politics.
-dms