According to
this and
this CIA chief Porter Goss has met with Turkish officials alerting them that the US plans to attack Iran:
15 December 2005: As people in the U.S. readied themselves for Christmas, few were aware that CIA Director Porter Goss was in Ankara, Turkey on Monday, engaged in a meeting that lasted over four hours with Turkish Intelligence officials. Goss, accompanied by a large delegation, brought secret data about Iran as he met with officials of the Milli Istihbarat Teskilati, or MIT. <snip> Goss said that Iran sees Turkey as an enemy and will "export its regime," warning Ankara to be ready for a possible U.S. aerial operation against Iran and Syria. On Tuesday Goss was driven in his armored BMW to a meeting with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Additional dialogue reportedly focused on the intelligence data, with Goss warning Ankara to be ready for a possible U.S. aerial operation against Iran and Syria.
Haven't we learned anything in the past three years?!? These kinds of unilateral, unprovoked, non-consensual decisions only serve to turn moderates into extremists and turn what few countries are on our side against us.
What does this accomplish? At the very best, you might delay Iran's nuclear development a few years while they reconsolidated. Then they'd develop weapons in secret in bunkers 100 meters underground, and we'll be where we are with North Korea. There's no way an action like this will stop Iran from developing nukes if they have the will to do so.
At worst, this could have no effect on Iran's nuclear program and provoke retaliation. If a country with the resources of Iran had the will, they could mount a covert terrorist war inside U.S. soil much worse than anything Al Queda is capable of.
The most regrettable thing is that Iran was on a slow path towards reform. Many of the young people over there admire America and don't want to live under Islamic fundementalist rule. But invading a neighboring Islamic nation has a way of turning admirers into critics. If Britain invaded Canada and overthrew the government, would Americans stand idly by? Would we not be streaming across the border to help our Northern neighbors, as much as we like Britain?
Finally, as pessimistic as it sounds, another motivation for this attack will be to draw attention away from Bush and his parties' domestic troubles, both legislatively and criminally. This view is backed up here. Here's a taste:
As one Israeli source put it: "Cheney has told Ariel Sharon that the American people will never tolerate the removal of a President or Vice President during wartime. He is pressuring Sharon to back up U.S. war plans, targeting Syria and Iran. Cheney sees his political days numbered, and he is desperate for a war to save his political hide."
I truly hope this does not come to pass.