CQ has upgraded Democratic chances in
two Colorado races: changes: CO-07 is now "Leans Democratic" from tossup status, and incumbent John Salazar (D) in CO-03 is now "Democrat favored" from "Leans Democratic".
I talked last night with a top-level activist and one of the smartest people I know on Colorado politics about the situation on the ground. A couple tidbits of note came up:
In CO-04, Angie Paccione has been getting slammed by the Musgrave campaign and NRCC, including this ad with a disabled vet, even though Musgrave has had a terrible rating from the Disabled American Vets.
Independent polls have shown Musgrave opening up a decent lead, and many people questioned whether Paccione was still viable. I heard that her campaign was "imploding" from several people. But, everyone seems to have paused to digest an internal poll her campaign just released.
An internal poll shows Democratic state Rep. Angie Paccione in a statistical dead heat U.S. Republican Rep. Marilyn Musgrave in the 4th Congressional District, Paccione's campaign said Wednesday.
The poll, by Virginia-based Democratic polling firm Strategic Services, has Paccione leading 45 percent to 42 percent, within the margin of error (plus or minus 4 points).
The poll paints a markedly different picture than polls earlier this month by SurveyUSA and The Denver Post, which had Paccione down 10 percentage points to Musgrave.
Reform Party candidate Eric Eidsness got 6 percent of the vote in the Paccione poll.
Pollster Andrew Myers said the difference could be larger, since the sample of 600 likely voters included a larger percentage of Republicans than are registered in the district, which covers the state's Eastern Plains and the North Front Range, including Fort Collins.
Is it real? Accurate? If so, she may have weathered one of the fiercest full frontal assaults of any Democrat this cycle. And this is a blue-trending area, so Dems are convinced that polls don't accurately reflect the changing partisan trends in the district.
In CO-05, the NRCC is having to dump more money to try and solidify a seat that should by all means be theirs. I was told that Cheney is actually coming to the district next week to try and bolster the Republican in the race, Doug Lamborn. Dick Freakin' Cheney is being forced to go to James Dobson territory, a district in which Bush won with 66 percent of the vote, in order to try to save their sleazy slimebag of a candidate against the impressive Jay Fawcett.
The DCCC has given the Fawcett campaign money to buy into the state's coordinated campaign (which will handle field), and there is a second GOTV effort being put together by -- get this -- the Republicans for Fawcett operation. This has always been a longshot race, but it may the only race in the country where Republicans are actively working to elect the Democratic candidate.
Bill Winter's race in CO-06 has been active on the ground and dead quiet everywhere else. No polling is available, so it's tough to gauge where the race is at. But Winter has impressed in the scope of the network he is building, and he is seen as a long-term candidate. His is a district with little (if any) Democratic infrastructure. He's helping build that from scratch, which will give him a leg up if he (as expected) continues running through to 2008.
I didn't ask about the governor's race or CO-07, since both have been looking solid for us and I had to head into a PTA meeting at my son's school. But all in all, there's a sense that Colorado Dems are strongly building on their dramatic 2004 victories.
On the web:
Bill Ritter for Governor
Angie Paccione for Congress (CO-04)
Jay Fawcett for Congress (CO-05)
Bill Winter for Congress (CO-06)
Ed Perlmutter for Congress (CO-07)