While this is slightly less data than I expected for a weekend less than two weeks out from the election, we still get quite a bit to chew on in this weekend edition of FTP.
We have one national poll to chew on (as well as a slight trend in the Rasmussen tracking), and we have new numbers in 22 individual contests. I do believe that this is a weekend record, but it is less than the 25-35 contests we have seen polled during the week.
The numbers, with some real good news therein, after the jump.
NATIONAL POLLING
We have one national poll this weekend, and it could be interpreted either way, to be truthful. On the face of it, the new numbers from Newsweek are devastating to the GOP: Bush job approval at 37% (with 53% disapproval), and a 14-point spread in the generic ballot (Dems 53, GOP 39).
Some (here and elsewhere) have spun this as bad news for the Democrats, since both numbers have eroded slightly from the previous week's Newsweek poll (Bush at 35%, Dems +18 on the generic ballot).
My take--(1) Both the shifts are within the margin, and there are only nine days left; (2) Nothing from the weekend news could be interpreted as great news for the GOP, and some things (Iraq news in particular) could be very damaging indeed; (3) The one thing that was supposed to bring the base home with force (the NJ Court ruling on gay marriage) clearly has not moved the needle much.
So...relax.
Also, here is an interesting note from the Rasmussen tracking poll of Bush's job approval--we have seen a two-point decline in the Bush job approval (from 43% to 41%) in the past two days. One of the reasons has been a decline of several points in his job approval among Republican voters. After a week in the 80s, his job approval within his own party has slid back into the high 70s.
Enjoy the numbers that follow...
INDIVIDUAL RACES
A reminder, as always--the tag at the end of the data that says [Dems], [GOP], or [Neutral] indicates the momentum as indicated by this poll, as it relates to previous polling data in the race. The good news for Democrats: in ELEVEN of the 22 races with new polls today, the Democrats have momentum. The GOP can claim momentum in only five races, and two of those are hollow momentum, at best.
The bottom line--nine days until the election, at the macro-level and the micro-level, the fundamental dynamics of Election 2006 do not seem to have changed.
AR-GOV: Beebe (D) 56%, Hutchinson (R) 38% [Dems]
Opinion Research steps in with their poll, which usually tends to be a bit rosy for the Democrats. However, they are usually not 18 points off, so it is fair to say that as we head into the final week of Election 2006, Mike Beebe is the overwhelming favorite to be the next governor of Arkansas--another statehouse pickup for the Democrats.
CO-GOV: (2 polls) Ritter (D) 51%, Beauprez (R) 35.5% [Dems]
A pair of weekend polls in the "Square State" shows a race that is, if anything, trending away from the Republican nominee at the close. The first poll of the weekend (from Cirulli and Associates) was widely derided by the Beauprez campaign for its wide margin in favor of the Democrat (52-33). One Beauprez spokesman even cracked "He (Cirulli) ought to stop polling only the immediate family" of Bill Ritter. Unfortunately for the GOP, a Mason-Dixon poll later in the weekend confirmed the Ritter lead (50-38). This one is in similar position to the Arkansas race...not yet over, but getting damned close.
CT-SEN: Sen. Lieberman (CfL) 48%, Lamont (D) 40% [Dems]
This one has already been diaried, but it bears repeating. This Rasmussen poll is the first poll in over a month to show two important (and related) trends: 1) A growth in the support for Republican Alan Schlesinger and 2) A narrowing of the gap between Lieberman and Lamont. This race might be getting more interesting here at the last moment.
DE-01: Rep. Castle (R) 59%, Spivack (D) 24% [Dems]
This Fairleigh Dickinson poll moves incrementally closer than the previous poll (61-22), but no one would call this one a Democratic target. Surprisingly, Spivack has been much more prolific as a fundraiser than previous Democrats here, but Castle is an electoral powerhouse here, and his longstanding reputation as a moderate is helping immunize him to the national mood.
FL-GOV: (2 polls) Crist (R) 49%, Davis (D) 40% [Neutral]
Once again, we have a day where there are two polls, with somewhat divergent results, in the Florida's governors race. The St. Petersburg Times, which uses both Republican and Democratic pollsters working in conjunction, has this race down to a six-point margin (48-42). Meanwhile, Insider Advantage polls here as well, and has the race at 12 points (50-38). Davis has done an admirable job of making this a race, but he has just over a week to change the calculus of this race, and give himself a chance to win it.
FL-SEN: Sen. Nelson (D) 56%, Harris (R) 30% [GOP]
Nominally, this is a movement in Harris' direction, since this poll doesn't have her getting waxed by more than 30 points. But, still...26 points for someone who has spent as much money as she has...well, that's pretty damned embarrassing. It is beginning to become evident why the Florida GOP was so eager to replace her from the ballot.
GA-12: Rep. Barrow (D) 42%, Burns (R) 39% [Neutral]
This independent poll out of the Georgia-12th, done by Insider Advantage, mimics another poll in the Georgia-8th. These races are awfully close, and I think that the statewide race for governor is just about done. I will make my first bold prediction about the 2006 elections that will anger the Kossack community--the Republicans will pick up a seat here, and might get both of them. Georgia just seems immune to the national bad mood. Add the mid-decade gerrymandering, and I just have a VERY bad feeling about this. If any Peach State Kossacks want to assuage my fears in the comments section, please do so.
ID-GOV: Otter (R) 44%, Brady (D) 43% [GOP]
It is just so WRONG to declare this as GOP momentum, but since it is a three-point swing from the most recent poll here (a Democratic internal which showed a two point Brady lead), I have to play by the rules. Which, in this case, does injury to the truth. The truth, in this case: This Mason-Dixon poll confirms that Democrats are making incredible inroads into the heart of GOP territory. The idea that a sitting Congressman, and former state lieutenant governor, is only up a point on the Democrat here shows that those saying there is not a Democratic wave this year must be delusional.
ID-01: Sali (R) 39%, Grant (D) 37% [Dems]
This Mason-Dixon poll is a pretty good indicator of why the NRCC has decided to play heavily in this district at the close, and why Dick Cheney will be spending some time here this week. Larry Grant has presented himself as a serious alternative for centrist and libertarian GOP voters. His personal fav/unfav numbers are considerably better than Sali's. This is still a tough get, but it is becoming increasingly conceivable.
IL-GOV: Gov. Blagojevich (D) 47%, Topinka (R) 38% [Dems]
This poll, conducted by Research 2000, shows an interesting insight. Blagojevich is deeply unpopular in his own state, with a meager 40% approval rating. But Topinka is even MORE unloved by the good folks of Illinois, as she limps along with an approval rating in the thirties. Rich Whitney (Green) is at 11%, meaning that all Blago needs to do to win is hang onto his 47% of the vote in order to win.
KY-03: Rep. Northup (R) 48%, Yarmuth (D) 42% [GOP]
The Bluegrass Poll usually does a pretty good job of polling this district, and their latest poll shows a narrow lead for the incumbent. Yarmuth had narrowly led in the SUSA poll, but he remains within striking distance despite some blistering attacks from the Republicans. This is not a toss-up, but it is also not a done deal for the GOP. Call this one a Leans Republican contest.
MD-GOV: (2 polls) O'Malley (D) 52.5%, Gov. Ehrlich (R) 46% [Neutral]
Incumbent Republican Bob Ehrlich has had a good couple of weeks, from a publicity standpoint. The WaPo endorsement was especially sweet for him. The status of this race is hard to read, given the disparate polls this weekend. Rasmussen has the race narrowing (50-47 O'Malley), while the Washington Post poll has O'Malley still leading by a solid margin (55-45 O'Malley).
MD-SEN: (2 polls) Cardin (D) 51%, Steele (R) 42.5% [Neutral]
Two public polls released over the weekend show that, while this race is still quite competitive, it is not the coin-flip that some pundits have labeled it. As with the gubernatorial race, Rasmussen (50-45) has the race more competitive than the Washington Post (52-40). Cardin's biggest advantage is the pervasive desire of voters to achieve balance in Washington...by a twenty-plus point margin, voters want to see a Democratic Senate.
MO-SEN: Sen. Talent (R) 47%, McCaskill (D) 47% [Dems]
Research 2000 polls this race monthly, and they show the race dead even going into the final week. This poll has to come as some small relief for the Democrats, who had watched Talent edge into a lead of about 3 points over the past week. Perhaps the Limbaugh gaffe over the Fox commercial is starting to work against the incumbent here.
NJ-SEN: Sen. Menendez (D) 48%, Kean (R) 42% [Dems]
After a pair of late week polls showed this race close to even, Research 2000 shows the race at a six-point edge for the Democratic incumbent. The best news for Democrats--the bulk of the undecided voters are Democrats and Independents--Republicans are almost completely off the fence on this one. Democrats seem to be in a quandary--they are not sold on Menendez, but they are not eager to see continued Republican control of the Senate.
OK-GOV: Henry (D) 68%, Istook (R) 25% [Dems]
This latest poll, done for the Tulsa World, is simply shocking to me. This was the state that just two years ago had a choice between a guy that even some conservatives thought was a batshit-crazy Republican (Tom Coburn) and one of the most conservative Democrats in the House of Reps (Brad Carson). They chose the batshit-crazy guy by eight points. Today, incumbent Brad Henry (who sings a similar ideological tune to Carson) is wiping the floor with Ernest Istook, who is a standard-issue conservative Republican. Out-and-out wiping the floor with him. If only there were a close House race that Henry could pull across the finish line here!!
OR-GOV: Gov. Kulongoski (D) 51%, Saxton (R) 44% [GOP]
I call this a GOP momentum shift only because this is marginally closer than the Riley Research poll released earlier in the week. Both polls confirm that the Saxton boomlet has abated, and the incumbent has once again returned to a small, but secure, lead.
PA-GOV: (2 Polls) Gov. Rendell (D) 57%, Swann (R) 36% [Neutral]
Two public polls, by Rasmussen and Temple University, confirm that this race is a done deal--Ed Rendell is dominating this race at the close. Rasmussen (56-38) has this race marginally closer than Temple (58-34), but both have them have Rendell up by a decisive margin.
PA-SEN: (2 Polls) Casey (D) 54.5%, Sen. Santorum (R) 40% [Dems]
Temple and Rasmussen also poll the Senate race, and they have this one settling back into the double digit range. Temple had the race at 16-points (54-38), while Rasmussen has the race at 13 points (55-42). Several polls in a row now have Casey at or above 50%, and there are virtually no polls showing the incumbent garnering more than 42% of the vote. This could be not just a defeat for Santorum...it could be a rout.
TX-GOV: Gov. Perry (R) 38%, Bell (D) 22%, Strayhorn (I) 21%, Friedman (I) 10% [GOP]
According to this poll by Zogby, Perry stretches his lead by a few points. This poll confirms the last three, which have all shown a marked decline in the support for Kinky Friedman. Meanwhile, this poll also confirms something that has been evident for some time--Perry is very unpopular in Texas, but it will not matter as long as the disgruntled are willing to split their votes three ways.
WA-SEN: Sen. Cantwell (D) 54%, McGavick (R) 42% [Neutral]
This race has settled into a very predictable pattern: Cantwell leading by a solid, but not overwhelming, margin. Rasmussen, which had the race a touch closer in previous polls, now joins other recent pollsters (Mason-Dixon, Elway) in giving Cantwell a double-digit advantage.
WY-AL: Rep. Cubin (R) 44%, Trauner (D) 40% [Dems]
This new poll, done by Aspen Media Research for the Wyoming Tribune-Eagle, has a KEY element in its internals. Apparently, during the first five days of polling, Cubin led Trauner by about 12 points. In the final few days of polling, which occurred AFTER the debate there, Trauner lead Cubin by twelve points. This, friends, is a big F-ing Deal.
And that wraps up the Weekend Edition of FTP. Enjoy the numerical buffet, and mix in some love for a favorite candidate this weekend. Make your arrangements for Election Day...don't we all have some sick days saved up??!!! I'll be back tomorrow with new numbers, and as always--rec it if you liked it!!