Over the last several weeks, a variety of information sources have reported US military movements and internal US government discussions that, to some, suggest preparations for an attack on Iran within the near future.
The purpose of this post is to assemble and summarize these reports in one place, the better for Daily Kos readers to try to make sense of them. It's harder to get a handle on these reports when they're scattered across a number of websites, diaries, and comment sections.
The information I refer to comes from a variety of sources, including not only media outlets but also anecdotal reports from family members of US personnel.
If anyone who reads this diary has additional news to report, such as first hand accounts from service members with knowledge of seemingly unusual military activity, I urge you to post these reports in the comments. Of course, doing so could mean that you have "purposefully and materially supported hostilities against the United States" under the recently passed Military Commissions Act of 2006. I really don't know.
Full disclosure time. I wrote a gloomy Daily Kos
diary back in May, sketching a scenario for how a US attack on Iran might unfold. The impetus for my scenario came from a Rawstory
report of possible preparations for a US attack in June. Obviously, the attack I feared did not happen. The lesson is that predicting future events based on military movements and rumors is a dangerous business.
In researching this more recent round of war fears, I'm reminded of how radio listeners reacted to Orson Welles' "War of the Worlds" broadcast on Halloween night of 1938. Otherwise rational people panicked at apparently plausible reports of a doomsday scenario unfolding in the real world. Once they believed it was happening, they interpreted every new piece of information to reinforce the existing belief. That's not a water tower - it's a Martian war machine!
It would be easy to fall into that pattern of thinking here. I know because I'm capable of it. I'm all too willing to believe the absolute worst about the Bush administration and its intentions. So it's easy for me to look at news of, say, a carrier deployment and leap to the conclusion I most fear. We have to be careful.
And yet. An American attack on Iran, whether before or after the upcoming election, could radically transform American life - and therefore the electoral politics of central concern here at Daily Kos. Credible accounts, most notably by Seymour Hersh, suggest that George W. Bush and his highest advisers fully intend to launch an attack before they leave office. Hersh's sources give the impression that the Decider and his minions are not bluffing.
It behooves us to pay attention, with all appropriate skepticism and caution. Absent a dramatic revelation - something on the order of Joint Chiefs Chairman General Peter Pace resigning and publicly revealing plans for an imminent attack - we'll have to deal with uncertainty right up until the time the bombs actually start to fall.
In the sections below, I first summarize the reports of seemingly unusual US military activity. I then conclude with some observations suggesting that the activity isn't actually unusual. I'm not a military expert, so I hope I haven't screwed anything up too badly.
Thanks to all the Daily Kos commenters and diarists who first reported much of what follows.
Make of it all what you will. Here's hoping that the Martian war machines remain safely locked away in our imaginations.
REPORTS FROM OFFICIAL OR JOURNALISTIC SOURCES INDICATING POTENTIALLY UNUSUAL MILITARY ACTIVITY:
(1) According to Time magazine, the US Navy is sending minesweepers to the Persian Gulf; also, the US Chief of Naval Operations has ordered a fresh review of plans for a blockade of Iran. The article is here.
(2) The aircraft carrier USS Eisenhower is on its way to the Arabian Sea, to join the carrier Enterprise already there. This news was first highlighted on the liberal internets in the Nation.
(3) The US Navy's Expeditionary Strike Group 5, a mixed force combining air, naval, and Marine forces, is on its way to the Indian Ocean. See this U.S. Navy press release. ESG 5 would apparently reinforce the USS Iwo Jima Expeditionary Strike Group, a similar force, already on station in the US Central Command area of operations. See the press releases here and here.
(4) Military and intelligence sources tell Rawstory that Pentagon war planning on Iran has moved to the "branches and sequels" stage, meaning (as I understand it) the basic plan is in place and the military leadership is now drafting responses to things that might go wrong during its implementation. The original report is here.
(5) Samuel Gardiner of the New Century Foundation argues in a recent paper that the administration has probably already made the decision to launch airstrikes on Iran; the only question now is when they will happen. Gardiner's paper is here. Gardiner recently stated in a CNN interview, ""The plan has gone to the White House. That's not normal planning. When the plan goes to the White House, that means we've gone to a different state." The interview is here.
ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE POINTING TO POTENTIALLY UNUSUAL MILITARY ACTIVITY:
(1) An instructor in the US Army Rangers has been placed on "alert status" and told to be ready for "emergency deployment." See this comment.
(2) A member of the Air Force reserves has been deployed to the Persian Gulf unexpectedly to support air traffic control operations. Read about it here.
(3) Unusually high levels of nighttime air activity have recently occurred at Truax Field, an air force facility in Wisconsin, in violation of local noise control regulations. See the comment here.
(4) A resident of Connecticut has observed three nuclear submarines departing from the US naval base at Groton, Connecticut, apparently on long-term deployments. The observation is here.
(5) A crewmember aboard USS Eisenhower reports that the level of tension on the ship is "extraordinarily high," with a pervasive sense that the ship's deployment is not a routine one. See this comment.
(6) Informal scuttlebutt throughout the military, dating from earlier this year, expects some sort of action in Iran before the year is over. Read about it here.
OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTING THE CURRENT DEPLOYMENTS ARE NORMAL AND ROUTINE:
(1) The deployment of USS Eisenhower to the Middle East is, officially, a routine move as part of normal ship rotations, to relieve the carrier Enterprise in the Arabian Sea. Official Navy information can be found here and here and here.
(2) Crewmembers on USS Enterprise expect to be back in Norfolk, Virginia by November 19, with no indication of an upcoming military operation to disrupt that schedule. The information is in the comment here.
(3) The deployment of mine countermeasure ships to the Persian Gulf reported in Time magazine can plausibly be described as routine replacement of similar vessels scheduled to be decommissioned. The point is made here.
(4) Some armed forces veterans who've read about the recent deployments say scuttlebutt and rumors among service-members are unreliable as a guide to the meaning of those deployments; rumors of something big going down are so common as to be meaningless. Also, the speeding up or rearranging of deployment schedules here and there is nothing unusual and cannot be regarded as firm evidence of war preparations. See, for example, comments here and here.
OTHER INFORMATION:
As diaried here, an organization called Global Research has issued a report on recent US and NATO military movements and what they might mean. Much of the report is a bit too conspiracy theory-ish for my tastes, but it makes for interesting reading.