I decided to do a little finagling, not that i have any sense about this
I presume for starters 100,000 base turn out, and divide up the voters as per the last Zogby poll
I add as follows Dean to the lowball hardcount of 40,000 + 18,000
Gephardt, to the highball hardcount of 35,000 +17,000
to Kerry being generous for having some organization + 12,000
To Edwards, for not having that much of an organization + 10,000
to others - having no real reason, but just to make interesting + 5,000
So here are the figures
Kerry 25 + 12 = 37,000
Dean 22 + 18 = 40,000
Geph 18 + 17 = 35,000
Edwards 21 + 10 = 31,000
oth/unc 14 + 5 = 19,000
that would be a total turnout of 162,000, which BTW I think is high
so the real issue might well come down to where undecideds / unviables go, caucus by caucus.
Mu gut reaction still tells me that Dean and Kerry will be the top 2, because I do not think Gephardt's top down structure can deliver for him [in other words, I think the figure of 35,000 is too high]. I grant that Kerry has some momentum (although I don't think the polling data for yesterday properly reflects events from yesterday - it usually takes a full day: note that Dean cratered on Tuesday after a Monday debate).
Aslo, Dean is likely to get a nasty hit from his attempt to atend the MLKing day ceremony, and with the press following him around, having to leave - I'm sure it will be interpreted negatively, and even if people have not seen it, it will be talked about at caucuses
So any of us are just guessing - who gets dragged in, whose weaker support disappears.
All i can say for sure - Gephardt is toast after this, and Edwars and Kerry may have real problems with money between now and next Thursday (although I'm sure Kerry's fundraising will be picking up - the question is how fast) if Dean finishes third, he will take a hit, and will ahve to fight for NH. if he finishes first or second, he's probably in pretty good shape.
And if Kucinich is thrwoing support to Edwards, will Clark tell me to go to Dean? After all, he really would not want to face a rejuvenated Kerry, better for him if kerry does not finish first.
Ah, all this mental masturbation while we wait for the next several hours. None of us has a clue, do we?
I still think Gephardt could finish fourth, or it is possible that Edwards could squeak out 2nd,