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Sheikh Abdel Aziz Al Sheikh, the grand mufti (the highest religious authority) of Saudi Arabia, bitterly condemned an incident in which Saudi women attending the Jeddah Economic Forum on Jan. 17-18 violated the rules of segregation and dress code dictated by the kingdom's Wahhabi brand of Islam. Al Sheikh said the women's behavior "should be denounced
He said the actions of the women and the publishing of their pictures in state media are prohibited by Islam. The mufti warned of "dire consequences" that will stem from such "outrageous behavior." He further lamented that this event took place in the land of the two holy mosques, the leaders of which in the past always stuck to Islamic law without fear of disparagement. That Al Sheikh publicly issued such a statement -- rather than privately consulting the royal family -- is a sign of trouble.
De facto Saudi ruler Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdel Aziz on Jan. 21 said the reform process under way in the kingdom must be approached gradually. The kingdom, under pressure from the United States and from some liberal sectors of Saudi society following Sept. 11, 2001, has embarked upon a cautious process of reform.
The mufti's statement illustrates that the House of Saud's plans for introducing reforms in the kingdom are meeting stiff opposition from the country's ulema (Islamic scholars) who have been loyal to the regime since the mid-18th century. Riyadh is not likely to bring the ulema on board with reforms they see as going against the kingdom's puritanical version of Islam. At the same time, the House of Saud cannot reverse the process of reform without causing a rift with the United States and the international community. This will lead to civil strife in the desert kingdom.
Al Sheikh's comments will strengthen the hands of the jihadist forces -- such as al Qaeda -- battling the monarchy.
Saudi ulema have spoken out against the regime on several occasions since the stationing of U.S. military forces in the kingdom. This, however, is the first time in Saudi history that the nation's grand mufti -- someone who also happens to be a descendant of the founder of Wahhabism, Muhammad bin Abdel Wahhab -- has taken a position in clear contradiction of official government policy.
Until now, the House of Saud relied upon the ulema, particularly those from Al Sheikh (descendants of the family/house of Sheikh Wahhab) to support them in their actions. This support included allowing U.S. forces to be stationed in the kingdom in the wake of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990, saying that the House of Saud is ruling in accordance with Islam and that the royal family has the divine right to rule. However, the post-Sept. 11 policy changes undertaken by the regime -- which are increasingly seen among Saudis as capitulation of Islam to the West -- now have affected the closest allies of the monarchy, including ulema from Al al-Sheikh. The descendants of Wahhab have provided the religious-legal justification for many of the regime's actions for more than two centuries. The mufti, the leading figure from this group, now has come out in strong opposition to what is clearly a regime-sanctioned gathering in line with its new policy of social reform.
Reem Abdel Aziz al-Jarbou, international relations adviser to the Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said in response to the mufti's remarks: "These women did nothing against Islam. If the authorities had not wanted this to go ahead they would have stopped it."
We suspect that many were angry already about the changes in educational curricula and foreign attacks on Wahhabism. This latest issue has triggered the once absolutely loyal religious conservatives to come out in the open.
The mufti is sending a message to Riyadh that the government needs to roll back the reform process or risk instability. We should note that Al Sheikh is as blind as his predecessor, the late Abdel Aziz bin Baz. This means he was approached by other ulema in the religious establishment to do something about the issue of women breaking Saudi religious laws. Thus, rising pressure from within his constituency forced him to issue the statement. In addition, the statement was released in the official Saudi Press Agency, subsequently trickling down to the rest of the country's newspapers. Anything published by the SPA requires approval from the highest levels of authority, which means that not only the grand mufti -- who has rank equivalent to that of a Cabinet member -- authorized it, but one of the top Saudi princes approved it as well.
For Riyadh to allow Al Sheikh's statement to be published in official media means that the royal family is under intense pressure from the religious establishment. They know that they can never convince the ulema to accept the current reforms. They will have to make certain concessions to the small Hejaz-based liberal elite to make them back off the reform process. The question is, for how long?
Judging from Abdullah's most recent statement, he cannot roll back the pressure from overseas -- and this likely will lead to a direct clash with the ulema. Initially, a tug-of-war will ensue in which rulers are pushing the country in one direction and the ulema are pulling in the opposite direction. Saudi Arabia's political structure lacks the sophisticated institutional arrangement of Iran, which allows for mitigation of disputes between liberal and conservative forces. Therefore, it is not likely that Abdullah can behave like Supreme Iranian Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and arbitrate between the two sides to find a negotiated settlement. Moreover, the inflexible understanding of Islam held by Saudi ulema does not allow for any compromise on what they consider core values.
This leaves the House of Saud in a precarious situation -- and it has all the signs of creating a chaotic situation in the kingdom. This will prompt even non-jihadist opponents to stage demonstrations, and the true jihadists will see it as an opportunity to launch attacks. Some factions within the royalty and security services might even aid the opposition in this process.
A critical pillar of the Saudi state is unhappy with the ruling family's policies and has chosen to take a public stance. The locus of opposition appears to be shifting from within certain segments of society to certain parts of the state itself. This bodes ill for the House of Saud.