Now wait ... before I go on, I'm not saying Mark Foley the person has any connection to Kim Jong Il. This is about the political connection between the two events. You see, the Foley scandal has a
far deeper significance even than most people are giving it credit for. It's not about the "end of the Republican Revolution," or what it exposes about the GOP's lust for power.
The Foley scandal strikes at the very heart of the modern GOP, the essential bedrock of the party politically.
I'm taking a little break from my work eviscerating John McHugh and helping DrBob (oh, we've got a doozy coming this week, btw), so this won't be too long. But I think Democrats should understand what's at stake with Foley and begin to use it in messaging in a very specific way. Foley has the potential to fundamentally change the dynamic between the parties. And North Korea is the first instance where this dynamic will play out.
The modern GOP is built on three things: the fervor of the religious right, the money of the corporate class, and the politics of national security. And it's the last that's the glue that holds it all together. And Foley hits right at that.
At first glance, Foley has nothing to do with national security. But, frankly, the GOP's advantage on "national security" has nothing to do with national security, either. We've all bemoaned the fact that poll numbers show the GOP (and Bush) doing well on "who would protect you from terrorism" questions while they do jack about terrorism.
What the modern GOP is built on is one fundamental message: we are the ones to protect you from the predator. Who or what that predator is changes due to the circumstances, but almost everything they do flows from that central message. The predator was the Soviets (the "bear in the woods"), or crime (with a minority face), or even gay people ("they recruit kids!"). And, of course, terrorists.
This fear of the predator is innate in all of us, coded into our societies and psyches from our earliest days as a species in the woods. It's extremely powerful and, from news reports about missing children to horror movies about knife-weilding maniacs stalking teenagers, a lot of money is made by exploiting that fear. And a lot of political careers are made from it, as well.
The GOP has spent a whole lot of time creating the image that they are the ones to protect us from that predator. It's not logical, and it has little to do with actual issues. It's a constant barrage of rhetoric and messaging, with cowboy swagger and bullhorn speeches playing a lead role. It's why Roger Ailes wrote that memo to the White House saying that they needed to take a very harsh rhetorical line against Al Qaeda after 9/11: the GOP must, in all cases, stick to that role. And they've been successful.
That's why, when Osama Bin Laden popped up just before the election of 2004, poll numbers moved toward Bush. A lot of Democrats were hoping the reaction would be "hey, wait a minute, what the hell is that guy doing still at large"? But the emotional reaction of "the predator is out there, we must move to The Protector" overwhelmed that feeling among the low-information swing voters.
It's also why Fox News spends so much time harping on alligators and missing children. It's not (just) because it tweaks people's emotions and gets viewers; it also dovetails into the whole GOP message: "It's a scary, scary world. There are predators in the woods. You need a protector. And that's us."
So, back to Foley. What this scandal does, in a very easy-to-understand package, is show people that that is all a farce. The GOP doesn't give a sh*t about actually protecting people. THEY COULDN'T EVEN PROTECT THEIR OWN PAGES (central message alert!). They were too busy trying to hold onto power to actually protect anyone.
And that's why the numbers on terrorism have changed. It's no coincidence that, only now, Democrats have claimed a lead on that question. It's not just a general disgust with Republicans. It's a very specific, extremely important shift on a basic message of the GOP.
And now North Korea sets off a nuclear weapon. Once again, the GOP has failed in its duty to protect people. Formerly, the "eeek! run to the GOP!" dynamic would've kicked in, no matter the fact that Bush allowed this to happen. And you can see the GOP is hoping that it does again.
But the Foley matter changed that dynamic. And, if Democrats are smart, they'll seize this opportunity to drive a stake into the heart of the GOP. Democrats must go on the offensive about it. Use the message: protecting America and Americans just isn't a priority for the GOP. Don't worry too much about the details, just focus on that central point.
If done right, it could damage the GOP for a generation.