First, let me start off by saying that it's wonderful to have so
many Nebraska races to analyze. I already
covered briefly the near shocker in NE-02, where Jim Esch came closer than anyone ever dreamed of knocking off incumbent Lee Terry. More details on that race will be coming in future diaries.
But, for now, I want to focus on the race in Nebraska's 3rd District. It's fairly obvious that Scott Kleeb lost this race because the party registration advantage was just too far in Republican favor. It was too much for Kleeb to overcome. But the county-by-county results reveal something else: we've got a lot more work to do.
Counties carried by Kleeb, and Ben Nelson's margin of victory in each of those counties:
Adams (+773)(Nelson +5,229)
-4456
Custer (+140)(Nelson +869)
-729
Greeley (+147) (Nelson +552)
-405
Howard (+286) (Nelson +999)
-713
Jefferson (+130) (Nelson +1358)
-1228
Loup (+50) (Nelson +108)
-58
Nance (+67) (Nelson +730)
-663
Nuckolls (+27) (Nelson +697)
-670
Saline (+1104) (Nelson +2641)
-1537
Sherman (+262) (Nelson +602)
-340
Webster (+30) (Nelson +600)
-570
Wheeler (+1) (Nelson +122)
-121
In just the counties that Kleeb won, Nelson got 11,490 more votes. Kleeb lost by 19,397. Now, certainly an incumbent who has won three statewide elections has a larger base of support than a political newcomer like Kleeb. But it is worth noting that Ben Nelson's coattails were nonexistent. When many Kossacks speak with disgust about Ben Nelson, they'll talk about his voting record. Nebraskans will talk about things like this. Nelson hardly campaigned on Kleeb's behalf at all, and even got Kleeb's name wrong at the State Convention in August.
Kleeb's key losses, and a large part of Smith's margin of victory, came from the largest counties. Nelson's numbers are included as well.
Hall (Grand Island): Smith +115, Nelson +3,384. -3,499
Buffalo (Kearney): Smith +2,189, Nelson +1,901. -4,090
Platte (Columbus) : Smith +2,637, Nelson +2,745. -5,382
Scotts Bluff (Scottsbluff) : Smith +765, Nelson +445. -1,210
Lincoln (North Platte) : Smith +546, Nelson +2,812. -3,358
In these counties, Nelson got 17,539 more votes than Kleeb. I will grant that Nelson was a popular incumbent who had already won three statewide elections (and narrowly lost a fourth), but his strength in all of these counties helps to disprove the notion that a Democrat couldn't win. My own analysis of these numbers leads me to believe that Nelson didn't help Kleeb at all. This is not to say that the Democratic Party did nothing for Kleeb. In fact, in a district this large, the state party was instrumental in setting up field offices, certainly more than the Kleeb campaign itself could.
I congratulate Ben Nelson on his victory. I applauded him at his victory speech, but I feel some criticism is needed here. With such a massive victory over Ricketts, it's troubling that Nelson didn't expend any political capital to help elect his fellow Democrats.