Which race is the most important this cylce? I get my say first. You get your say in a poll later..
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Cross Posted at: MrMainstream
Ther are any number of races that are critically important this cycle. They are important in and of themselves. They are a portend or bellweather for what kind of night it is going to be on November 7th. There are races with paticular importance to 2008. And there important races with respect to the long term prospects of the Democratic Party.
Which is more important?
A famous economist once said, "In the long run, we are all dead." When looking at races, is it smart to look beyond the next cycle, in this case beyond 2008. With 2008 looming as the first time for an open presidential race in eight years, it probably doesn't make a lot of sense to look past 2008. The only look past 2008 that might matter is to focus on one that is not on anybody's list except the 50 state strategy of Howard Dean. Personally, I think it will be too soon to tell with any degree of certainty whether or not the 50 state strategy is really going to pay off. Seems to mee there are more important races for red to blue seats this cycle that are in the swing states. Perhaps NE-03 might be one to look at to measure the 50 state strategy, but I don't know haw that one is going.
Which races are important in reference to 2008? There ae a couple of Senate races and at least one Governor's race that have particular relevance to 2008. Let's take up the Senate first.
In my humble opinion, the TN-Sen has the biggest implications for 2008 for one reason: Obama Mania. If Harold Ford Jr. can pick up Bill Frist's Senate seat in 2004, Obama is certainly going to have to run. His message is similar to Ford's. He is someone with less personal baggage than Ford. But if Ford can win in a Southern state, is there any limit to how effective Obama can be in 2008? I don't thinks so. For that reason, my vote for the Senatae race with the most impact on 2008 goes to the TN-Sen race of Harold Flord Jr.
The other Senate races to consider are the MO-Sen, and the VA-Sen. Together with the TN-Sen, they are part of the Goper "firewall". Dems need 2 out of these 3 to get back control of the Senate. The Va-Senate race betwee incumbent George macaca Allen and Jim Webb has all the earmarks of a knock down drag out affair. If Allen hadn't attempted political hari-kari with his macaca moment, there is no way this race would be on anybody's radar this cycle. But Allen made it competitive. It would have brought on even more importance if Mark Warner had not already declared hinmself out of the 2008 race. So this one has implications for this cycle, but not for 2008 or beyond.
The MO-Senate race is a more interestiung case for 2008 and perhaps beyond. MO is absolutely a bellweather state. Whover wins MO in 2008 will be the next President. So what does the MO-Sen race this cycle have to do with 2008 and beyond? Two words: stem cells. This cycle may mark the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning of the Religous Right's strangelhold on the Republican Party. Stem cell research might be the Rubicon for the Religious Right. The MO state constition question on the MO ballot this year has made this a close race. It is also what has given the MO-Sen race implications for 2008 and beyond.
If stem cells carry the Dem to victory in the Mo-Senate race, it is not so much about McCalister or Talent as it is about the strength of the religious right. If McCasskil and stem cells both win that is very bad news for the wingnut Christers. If stem cells win and McCaskill loses, it pretty much muddies the water. If they both lose, it pretty much means the Religious Right is still alive and well. At least in MO.
FL-Gov is a below the radar race here on DailyKos. Maybe it is because the Goper, Charlie Crist has been seen as the inevitable winner in what outsiders perceive is a red state. But for those of us in Florida who believe we are purple moving towards blue, this is the most improtatant race in this cycle an in 2008.
We all remember Florida in 2000. Florida rightly deserved the ridicule heaped upon it for the awful way the election process worked here. With a Republican Governor and an now infamous Republica Chief Election Officer, Florida was doomed in 2000. The 537 votes that the US Supreme Court declared determined the outcome of the election has left a bad taste in the mouths of Dems in Florida.
This cycle is the first one to have an open FL-Gov race since 1990. Jeb Bush terms out this cycle. His would be Goper successor is state Attorney Gnereal Charlie Crist. His opponent is 10 year Congressman from Tampa, Jim Davis. With Crist from St. Petersburg, Tampa Bay is at the center of the political universe in Florida, but not in the eyes of the nation. Thus this race is well below anybody's radar but the most aredent Dems here in Florida. The implications for Florida are huge. Crist has pretty much declared himself as the natural successor to Jeb. He has promised to stay the course. Jim Davis is running as the outsider despite 18 years experience in elected public office in Florida. Since he has been in Congress for the last 10 years, Davis kept his eyes on the state and the Governors Mansion. Davis main message, is that Florida's families want change, and I'm going to give to them. Davis has been criticized as being too bland and too much of a man in the middle. That may be what Florida is looking for. It may be what the country is looking for in 2008.
If Florida elects Davis this cycle, real change will be coming to Florida. The real changes with implications for 2008 are these:
Florida will hae a Dem Governor to lead the charege for the Dem presidential nominee in 2008. Florida will have a Dem appointed Chied Elections Officer counting its votes in 2008. And Florida will have a paper trail to ensure free and fair elections in 2008.
The implications for beyond 2008 are huge as well. Davis will be in a position to push a promised 2008 state constitutional ammendment requiring independent redistricing in 2012. Florida is a state with nominly more Ds than Rs, yet our Congressioal delegation in the House is stuck at 18 Rs and 7 Ds. That may change by as many as 4 seats this year, but it would still leave the state with 14 Rs and 11 Ds. Closer, but not as representative of the will of the voters would be without the laser sharp redistricting the Rs were able to push through in 2002.
For my money, the clear winner with implications for this cycle, 2008, and beyond 2008 is the FL-Gov race. But my money was all spent in the 2004 cycle. All I have to give this cycle is my time and my energy. For those of you who still can, today is the last day to feed the cash gobbler that is statewide races in Florida. Please contribute to Jim Davis for Governor here.
For those of you like me who have already depleted their treasury, plese give your time and energy. This race has tightened enough that the final solution boils down to GOTV. Can Dems do a better job of mobilizing their voters than the Gopers this year? In 2004, Dems got more of their voters to the polls than ever before in florida. The only problem was that the Gopers did too, and by a bigger margin. We can do better this year. If you can help Jim Davis, please volunteer here. If you are not in Fliorida, but want to help, you can volunteer at the Virtual Campaign HQ here
Let me say a quick word about Congressional races before you stone me to death. There are any number of critical House races this cycle. There is no way to know, in my mind, what the implications are for 2008 and beyond. If the Dems pick up significant red state seats from the 50 state strategy of Howard Dean, that will be a great sign for 2008 and beyond. However, I can not pick out a single seat that would tell me if the 50 state strategy worked thuis year. Even Dean admits that he doesn't expect to see dividends until at least 2008. Beyond that, quien sabe? (Who knows?)
OK, FL-Gov is my choice. Now it's your turn. If I leave a race out the poll that you think should be on there, throw stones at me in the comments. If you think I've nailed it, throw me some bones. Or, better yet, find a way to help Jim Davis here.