Okay, so it won't be entirely Kerry-free (I do have some analysis of what Tuesday evening polling showed, which was after the media began obsessing over the topic). But I have reduced the Kerry content, kinda like KFC MOSTLY getting rid of trans-fats (which I am thrilled to hear about...KFC is a serious weakness of mine).
We have one new national poll (and 'tis a glorious one, if you are Democrat), and we have a heaping helping of individual race polling (nearly 40 races).
Follow me past the threshold for all the numbers.
NATIONAL POLLING
As often happens, the intrepid DemFromCT has beaten me to the punch by an hour or so, but I am here to (belatedly) report that CBS/NYT is out with their new numbers, and they are brutal for the GOP.
President Bush's job approval sits at 34%, which is unchanged from the last time CBS/NYT released a poll, which happened to be in the midst of the Foley follies.
The generic ballot, on the other hand, actually shows GAINS for the Democrats since that Foley-gate era poll: Democrats 52%, Republicans 34%. An eighteen-point edge for the Democrats, six days before the elections. Perhaps more importantly, this DOES include polling from last night, which was after the Kerry kerfluffle began.
INDIVIDUAL RACES
Is "Botched-Joke"-gate going to have an effect on individual races? Here is a possible clue--eight polls (six by SurveyUSA) included polling conducted on Tuesday, when the media obsession with Kerry-gate began. In all but one of them, the Democratic candidate made gains vis-à-vis the previous poll. In two of these races (AZ-05 and OH-02), the Democrat actually took the lead.
The bulk of today's polling data comes from the fifteen-race Zogby telephone surveys of key House races. In all, though, we have seen 39 individual contests polled today. In those races, we can declare Democratic momentum in fourteen races, with Republican momentum in fourteen races, and neutral momentum in eleven races. It is the first time that we have seen equal Republican and Democratic momentum in several weeks. However, this is a bit misleading--a great deal of those GOP momentum tags can be attributed to races where the previous polling seemed awfully optimistic, OR those tags can be attributed to races that don't matter (Delaware Senate and Wyoming Senate, anyone??).
With that in mind, onto the data....
AL-GOV: Gov. Riley (R) 54%, Baxley (D) 39% [GOP]
The new numbers from SurveyUSA show that the Republican incumbent has lost six points off of his lead, but still remains in the drivers seat to win a second term. According to the SUSA internals, Baxley has made up some ground with women voters, but remains too far behind at this point to realistically give her a shot at the upset.
AZ-05: Mitchell (D) 48%, Rep. Hayworth (R) 46% [Dems]
Right out of the box, we get one that could classify as a stunner. I sincerely doubt that in his decade-plus in elective politics, J.D. Hayworth has ever trailed in a poll. Yet here, with less than a week until Election Day, we find former Tempe Mayor Harry Mitchell blasting into a narrow lead. This race was a three-point Hayworth lead the last time SUSA polled it (which was on October 16th), so this movement is significant.
AZ-08: Giffords (D) 53%, Graf (R) 41% [Neutral]
The first of the Zogby House series confirms what a lot of people concluded long ago--this border district will have enough adherents to the Graf "git tough" rhetoric on immigration to keep him from being embarrassed. But it has enough Democratic and moderate Republicans to ensure that Giffords will win this race, and probably by double digits.
CA-GOV: Gov. Schwarzenegger (R) 49%, Angelides (D) 33% [GOP]
This new poll forces me to say something that is incredibly painful for me to say--this race is done. Ahnuld will be re-elected. Why? Because this is the Field Poll, which is far and away the most respected of the California pollsters. If Schwarzenegger becomes a Republican again (which I believe he will), Democrats will have four years to self-flagellate for allowing this to happen. California Democrats might need a house-cleaning after next week, if this race infects some of the other important contests down-ballot.
CA-SEN: Sen. Feinstein (D) 55%, Mountjoy (R) 33% [Dems]
The Field Poll also confirms a comfortable, but not dominant, victory for Senator Dianne Feinstein. I find it hard to believe that Feinstein will win with approximately the same margin as she did in 2000 against Congressman Tom Campbell, who had a much more moderate issue profile, and (unlike Mountjoy) actually had an air campaign.
CO-07: (2 polls) Perlmutter (D) 54%, O'Donnell (R) 39% [Dems]
This pairing of the Zogby poll (54-40) and SurveyUSA (54-38) joins other polls that show Perlmutter pulling into a lead, although this is the biggest lead we have seen in this race since an earlier SurveyUSA poll had this race as a total blowout. My supposition is that the NRCC's polling shows roughly the same thing, as they have left this race as of yesterday.
CT-GOV: Gov. Rell (R) 59%, DeStefano (D) 33% [Neutral]
The Quinnipiac poll here confirms what other recent polling has shown--Rell will win this race with ease, but not by the two-to-one margins that earlier polls seems to indicate. Rell is exactly the type of Republican who can still win in the Northeast, and it is exceedingly likely she will prove that next week.
CT-SEN: Sen. Lieberman (CfL) 49%, Lamont (D) 37% [GOPish]
Quinnipiac shows some tightening in their polling, but this returns the race to double digits after Rasmussen gave the Lamont team some hope when they polled this race at eight points over the weekend. Unfortunately, I am starting to find it difficult to do the math in such a way that Lamont can come from behind in this race. Lieberman's support with Independents has slipped a bit, but it would have to crater between now and next week.
CT-02: Rep. Simmons (R) 47%, Courtney (D) 42% [GOP]
Zogby's poll on this race runs a bit counter to other recent polls, which showed Courtney forging a small lead. Still, the incumbent is below the 50% safety threshold, and this race is still very much a toss-up.
CT-04: Farrell (D) 51%, Rep. Shays (D) 44% [Dems]
This poll (in the Zogby series) is in line with just about every other pollster (except Majority Watch) in pushing Democrat Diane Farrell into a narrow lead. Zogby has the margin a bit wider than other pollsters, but Shays at 44% (which is around where he has been in other polls) has to set off major alarm bells at the NRCC.
DE-SEN: Sen. Carper (D) 60%, Ting (R) 26% [GOP]
This new Fairleigh Dickinson poll represents a slight tightening of the race since the last time it was polled (also by FDU). A 40-point lead is now a 34-point lead, although it becomes pretty difficult to figure out where Ting will be able to pull off that last-second surge that will net him thirty-four points.
GA-GOV: (2 polls) Gov. Perdue (R) 50.5%, Taylor (D) 37.5% [Neutral]
We have a new Strategic Vision poll here, which (surprise!) leans Republican (52-36). The Insider Advantage tracking poll has a slightly wider margin than yesterday's tracking poll, giving Perdue a ten-point lead (49-39-7). At this point, Taylor's only hope is to push Perdue under 50%, and buy another month in a runoff to make his case.
IL-06: Duckworth (D) 54%, Roskam (R) 40% [Dems]
I agree with Kos on this Zogby poll--I am having a very hard time seeing a double-digit lead for Duckworth here. In fairness, I have a hard time seeing either candidate with a double-digit lead here. This is going to be one of the true "coin-flip" races next Tuesday.
IN-02: (2 polls) Donnelly (D) 51%, Rep. Chocola (R) 43% [Dems}
This pairing of the Zogby poll (52-39) and a much closer Research 2000 poll (50-47) give us a picture of a Democratic lead here in the mid-to-high single digits. This goes along with the general tenor of this race, which would go a long way to explaining why the NRCC bailed on this district a few weeks back.
IN-09: Hill (D) 48%, Rep. Sodrel (R) 46% [GOP]
The Zogby poll has this race considerably closer than Monday's Majority Watch poll, but this is line with other polls like SUSA and R2000, which have the race within a few points. Sodrel has been a much tougher get than some Democrats might have anticipated, but he has also not led in this race.
IA-GOV: Culver (D) 44%, Nussle (R) 37% [Neutral]
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, taken for the Culver campaign by Global Strategies Group. This poll fills a bit of a void, since it has been a couple of weeks since we have seen a poll from this race. The one comment I will make is not a happy one--when a candidate releases internals that look a lot like Independent polls did a couple of weeks ago, that is bad news.
IA-01: Braley (D) 49%, Whalen (R) 42% [Dems]
This Zogby poll is considerably more in-line with other previous polls on this contest. Of course, it was the previous Zogby poll that placed question marks above the heads of every pundit in America (Whalen by 13??? WTF???). This district went for Dukakis, Clinton, Gore, and Kerry. It is hard to imagine that a Republican can win here in 2006.
KY-04: Lucas (D) 45%, Rep. Davis (R) 42% [Neutral]
This Zogby poll is the second consecutive poll showing Democrat Ken Lucas returning to a narrow lead over Rep. Geoff Davis (the Majority Watch poll was the first). This is going to be another one of those "down to the wire" races, and I'd like to see what SUSA says about this race, since they have continually had Davis in a small lead.
MD-GOV: O'Malley (D) 48.5%, Gov. Ehrlich (R) 45% [GOP]
Is there a politician in America that closes better than Robert Ehrlich?? Four years ago, Kathleen Kennedy Townshend led the Maryland governors race for 50 weeks of the campaign. Unfortunately, the two weeks she did not lead were the last two weeks. Although O'Malley still has not trailed in any polls to date, this race is most assuredly tightening, as attested to by this Baltimore Sun poll (47-46), and even a Democratic poll, done by Garin Hart Yang (50-44).
MN-GOV: Hatch (D) 44%, Gov. Pawlenty (R) 42% [GOP]
Mason-Dixon polls this race, and find it a bit closer than the two university polls which I highlighted in yesterday's edition of FTP. That said, they also give Mike Hatch a lead, and it becomes really hard to figure how Pawlenty is going to seal the deal with the 65-75% of the undecided voters that he would need to overcome Hatch. Hutchinson polls well here, but not as well as other polls have shown (6%).
MN-SEN: Klobuchar (D) 55%, Kennedy (R) 33% [Neutral]
Okay, St Cloud University...I take it back. Yesterday, I expressed a little bit of skepticism that the Klobuchar juggernaut could really be leading by over 20 points, as the SCSU survey had implied. Today comes confirmation via the new poll from the University of Minnesota, which shows Klobuchar with a similar (23 instead of 25) advantage. Wow...this is really turning into a rout at the last. Hard to believe.
MN-06: Bachmann (R) 52%, Wetterling (D) 42% [GOP]
While I no longer doubt that the Wetterling boomlet is a done deal, I am not sure that I buy a double-digit Bachmann lead. This Zogby poll shows a definite surge for Bachmann, who led by three points when they polled here at the beginning of the month. One has to wonder if the DCCC might be considering cutting the cord and heading for a more winnable race.
NV-GOV: (2 polls) Gibbons (R) 46%, Titus (D) 43% [Neutral]
A slight, but VERY slight, tightening of this race as we head into the final week. Rasmussen has the race as a toss-up (48-46), while Mason-Dixon returns to the Silver State and finds a wider margin, but more undecideds (44-40). This is becoming a toss-up at the end, but this is not the wholesale reversal of fortune that a lot of people anticipated when the twin Mazzeo/"Nanny" stories broke in the past two weeks.
NV-SEN: Sen. Ensign (R) 54%, Carter (D) 42% [Neutral]
Unfortunately, this race has never managed to get into that 2-6 point range that might have gotten the attention of either the DSCC or the national press corps. It is hard to see how Jack Carter (who has run a much better race than I think anyone gave him credit for) closes a dozen-point gap in the last six days. Hopefully, he will not leave the political arena altogether.
NH-GOV: Gov. Lynch (D) 71%, Coburn (R) 18% [Dems]
Wow...what a total asskicking this has become. Hopefully, since his race is no longer in doubt, Gov. Lynch will find some time to put his arms around Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes over the course of the next six days. This poll is by Univ. of New Hampshire, which gives me hope that we might have some House races here soon.
NM-01: Madrid (D) 53%, Rep. Wilson (R) 44% [Dems]
With this Zogby poll added to earlier polls by Majority Watch, SUSA, and the Albuquerque Journal, one has to consider Madrid a very slight favorite heading into Election Day. I do not believe that Madrid will win this race by nine points, but I do believe that it would have to be considered an upset at this point if Wilson pulled this race out.
NC-11: Shuler (D) 48%, Rep. Taylor (R) 43% [GOP]
A slight narrowing of this race, according to the Zogby poll. Given the red-state nature of this district (which Bush carried with 57% of the vote), this is probably to be expected. Still, we are now less than a week until Election Day, and Shuler is still leading here. Also, he will have the financial resources to make it through to the end of this election.
OH-02: Wulsin (D) 48%, Rep. Schmidt (R) 45% [Dems]
SurveyUSA polls this race for the third time, and finds that the narrow lead that Schmidt employed has eroded, and Democrat Victoria Wulsin has moved ahead, albeit by a handful of points. This, in a district with such steadfast Republican tradition, is pretty damned amazing. Schmidt's caustic personality has even turned off some of the Republicans in her district, as 15% of GOPers actually back the Democrat.
OH-18: Space (D) 53%, Padgett (R) 33% [Dems]
Given the results of this Zogby poll, we start to understand the NRCC decision to pull the cash in this district yesterday. Padgett raised a ton of money quickly, but the taint of the Ney conviction, as well as his bizarre failure to resign, seems to have doomed Padgett. Plus...this is Ohio in 2006, and it is becoming evident that one thing you don't want to be: a Republican. In Ohio. In 2006.
OK-05: Fallin (R) 59%, Hunter (D) 37% [Dems]
This race looks pretty similar to the ones we saw in the AL-GOV and DE-SEN races, considerably closer than it was weeks ago, but not close enough to close the deal. Oklahoma Lt. Governor Mary Fallin had a lead of 31 points, according to the last time SurveyUSA polled here. Today the lead is down to 22 points.
PA-GOV: (3 polls) Gov. Rendell (D) 58%, Swann (R) 35% [Neutral]
New numbers from the Keystone Poll, Quinnipiac, and Strategic Vision all paint a similar picture--Rendell, and probably in a landslide. Rendell earns 58% of the vote in all three surveys, while the only disagreement is on Swann's numbers. Not surprisingly, SV is the most optimistic for the Republican (37%), followed by Quinnipiac (35%) and the Keystone Poll (33%).
PA-SEN: (3 polls) Casey (D) 51.3%, Sen. Santorum (R) 39.7% [Neutral]
Three polls...and no late surge for the Santorum campaign. The only question is whether the Casey lead is solid (SV has the race at 49-39, Quinnipiac has it at 52-42) or a pending blowout (Keystone has it at 53-38). It is hard to find a scenario where the incumbent Senator can salvage his political career here.
PA-06: L. Murphy (D) 49%, Rep. Gerlach (R) 44% [Neutral]
This Zogby poll is the second consecutive poll showing the incumbent trailing by around five points. This is good news for the Murphy campaign, as the dominant pundit/media theme this month had been that the Gerlach campaign had played its way back into parity in this race. Several pundits (Chuck Todd among them) even went so far as to speculate that Gerlach might even pull this race off, in what would have to be considered something of an upset.
PA-08: P. Murphy (D) 46%, Rep. Fitzpatrick (R) 41% [Dems]
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, done for the Murphy campaign by Global Strategy Group. Amid mixed independent polling, Murphy's internal polls continue to show him with a small, but consistent, lead in this race in the Philly suburbs. One note of optimism for the Murphy camp--todays independent polls on the statewide races shows that both Lynn Swann and Rick Santorum are getting obliterated in suburban Southeastern PA. Could this create turnout issues for Mssrs. Gerlach, Weldon, and Fitzpatrick??
SC-05: Rep. Spratt (D) 58%, Norman (R) 39% [GOP]
Considerably closer than a Clemson poll last week seemed to indicate, but this new poll from SurveyUSA feels "more accurate" to me. Whether the lead is 19-points or 33-points (as Clemson indicated), the story here is that one of the NRCC's top challengers has crashed and burned, leaving the "embattled" Democrat to cruise a victory only slightly more challenging than his past victories.
VA-SEN: Sen. Allen (R) 45%, Webb (D) 42% [GOP]
This new poll by Roanoke College flies in the face of other recent polling, and also has some alarming internal information. The relatively high undecideds would seem to play into the hands of the challenger, but Roanoke posits that while the bulk of the undecideds are independents, the partisan undecideds broke about 4-to-1 Republican.
VA-02: Rep. Drake (R) 51%, Kellam (D) 43% [GOP]
This is a race where the polling has been horrifically inconsistent. Majority Watch had Kellam with a small lead, Mason-Dixon had it as a tossup, and this Zogby poll stakes Drake to a solid lead. This heavily military district is one district where the media obsession with the Kerry story might do some real damage. Kellam needs to hit the issue in much the way that Sherrod Brown did.
WA-08: Rep. Reichert (R) 51%, Burner (D) 45% [GOP]
Interestingly, there is a real curious dichotomy in this SurveyUSA poll. Among the 25% of people polled who had already voted, Burner enjoyed an eight-point lead. Among the remaining voters who have yet to vote, Reichert had a more solid lead. If this speaks to voter motivation, then next week may be very interesting, not just in WA-08, but around the country.
WY-SEN: Sen. Thomas (R) 70%, Groutage (D) 22% [GOP]
Even though this Aspen Research poll shows the Republican incumbent winning in a total rout, this poll actually brings me some relief. Coming on the heels of the same pollster showing a surge for Democrat Gary Trauner and a landslide for Democratic Gov. Dave Freudenthal, I deeply feared that the sample might have been a bit optimistic for our side.