So, y'all remember all that "oooo, Karl Rove is so confident, he must know something" talk swirling around the blogosphere and the traditional media? It led to all manner of kvetching and conspiracy theories ...
Well, forget all that. Because Karl Rove is calling it for the Democrats. Whatever THE math Rove sees, it ain't fuzzy at all, and the bottom line don't look good. As the old expression goes, success has many fathers, but failure is an orphan. And Karl is asserting his lack of paternity already ...
See below for the sight of the towel being tossed ...
OK. First of all, the obligatory disclaimer: it ain't over 'til it's over, and nothing is guaranteed. We need to push to the finish line now, working to make a good victory into a major victory, or a major victory into a freakin' blow-out. Whatever we are winning by now, it ain't enough. We need a few more seats in Congress to fight the "cataclysmic fight to the death" with a White House bent on a Constitutional crisis.
But I've never bought the theory that you should always act like you are behind by 4 points. Nothing gets the juices flowing and the pulse quickening like the prospect of success mixed with a little justified schadenfreude, so let's take a look at the evidence. And then go forth and absolutely bury this election.
By way of Greg Sargent comes an article in the WaPo:
"Rove has been much weaker in the last year and a half, in large measure because of Fitzgerald, and Bush has not been as politically successful," said William Kristol, the editor of the Weekly Standard. Kristol voiced worry that moderates will try to "scapegoat" Rove after the election.
Associates say Rove is privately frustrated that individual candidates have not been more aggressive in drawing contrasts with Democrats on national security. [...]
Rove this summer signaled his desire that the war could be neutralized or even turned into an asset for Republican candidates who cast Democrats as defeatist. Instead, many candidates have been distancing themselves from Bush on the war. And while Bush in 2004 showed he could lose independent voters and still win the election, this year's polls show swing voters even more powerfully against the GOP. [...]
While Rove's confidence in the midterms does not waver, he said the conservative changes that Bush has promoted do not hinge on just one election: "1938 was a huge wipeout for the Democrats -- do you think that was the end of the New Deal?"
That, my friends, is the sight of Bush's Brain spinning away from defeat. Despite the obligatory "while Rove's confidence ... does not waver," it's clear that Rove and his "associates" (like Kristol) are working madly to try to make the blame fall anywhere but on him.
The specifics, of course, are laughable. The GOP is losing because they weren't tough enough and they didn't embrace Iraq enough?!?! Oy, good lord, what a crock. But Karl Rove is nothing more than a clever little man. He's got some assets as a tactician, but he's never been the strategic thinker folks think he is (folks like ... well, him). But he's got so much invested into the image of the tough-guy assassin (remember the story of him yelling into the phone "we will fuck him!" while a reporter was in earshot?), he can't let that go. He's still the tough guy; it's just that others weren't as tough. They weren't as hard-minded. They shrank away when the going got tough.
HA! That is just such utter nonsense. And he won't get away with it. Rats can abandon a sinking ship that ran into a reef, but when the captain starts heading for the lifeboat ... well, people notice. And they remember who ran the freaking thing aground.
I tell you, should it happen (knocks on wood), I will be extremely excited by a Democratic victory because of what it will mean for the country. But a little part of me will also be happy that I'll never have to listen to the "Karl Rove is an evil genius" crap anymore.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to get back to the work of making that happy event come true next Tuesday ...