If Virginia Democrats had successfully followed Dean's 50-state strategy, George Allen would have conceded on Tuesday night instead of Thursday. We lucked out in a nailbiter of an election that could have been an utter rout.
Background: On October 19, I wrote
this diary about a trip through very red Carroll County, Virginia, and a perception I had that support for George Allen was softening. I decided to follow that up today by checking the vote total for Carroll County with their vote totals in 2004 for Bush vs. Kerry, and it turns out that I was
slightly right: Allen performed worse than Bush in Carroll, but not by a tremendous amount.
So, I decided to delve a little further and compare the rest of Virginia's localities as well -- full table on the flip.
- The first column of this table is the name of the locality. An plus sign (+) beside any name in this column indicate a locality that "flipped" from Bush to Webb; A minus sign (-) indicates a locality that flipped from Kerry to Allen. (What were they thinking?!)
- The second column is the percentage of the vote that George Allen earned in that locality.
- The third column is the difference between the percentage of the vote that Allen earned in 2006 versus the percentage of the vote that Bush earned in 2004 in that locality. Since Allen won 49% of the vote, and Bush won 54% of the vote statewide, most of these percentages are negative.
- The fourth column is a performance index, indicating the comparative strength or weakness of Allen's performance relative to other localities in the state. This was done by calculating the ratio between how much that locality contributed to Allen's statewide total in 2006 versus how much it contributed to Bush's statewide total in 2004. For this measurement only, I've discounted the vote total of third party candidates. A performance index less than 1 indicates that Allen underperformed in that locality. (For you mathy wonks, the formula used here is (Allen/.5) / (Bush/.54), where Allen = percentage of local vote for Allen in 2006 and Bush = percentage of local vote for Bush in 2004.)
And now the facts and figures:
By Locality:
Accomack County 51.1% -6.8% 0.95
Albemarle County 41.6% -6.9% 0.93
Alexandria City 28.3% -4.0% 0.95
+Alleghany County 47.3% -7.8% 0.93
Amelia County 64.6% -0.2% 1.08
Amherst County 58.3% -2.8% 1.03
Appomattox County 64.7% -0.9% 1.07
Arlington County 26.3% -5.0% 0.91
Augusta County 68.7% -5.7% 1.00
Bath County 58.6% -4.1% 1.01
Bedford City 54.0% -3.9% 1.01
Bedford County 66.8% -3.1% 1.03
Bland County 62.6% -5.9% 0.99
Botetourt County 64.0% -4.8% 1.01
Bristol City 60.4% -3.2% 1.03
Brunswick County 43.0% 1.8% 1.13
Buchanan County 43.7% -2.2% 1.03
Buckingham County 53.5% 0.7% 1.09
Buena Vista City 54.1% -5.2% 0.99
Campbell County 67.5% -1.6% 1.05
+Caroline County 48.1% -2.2% 1.03
Carroll County 60.8% -6.6% 0.97
Charles City County 37.9% 1.5% 1.12
Charlotte County 59.9% 1.7% 1.11
Charlottesville City 21.7% -5.3% 0.87
Chesapeake City 51.7% -5.4% 0.98
Chesterfield County 58.4% -4.2% 1.01
Clarke County 51.7% -5.8% 0.97
Colonial Heights City 72.4% -2.1% 1.05
Covington City 40.2% -7.8% 0.90
Craig County 58.6% -6.5% 0.97
Culpeper County 59.8% -4.5% 1.00
Cumberland County 57.7% 0.1% 1.08
-Danville City 50.2% 1.1% 1.10
Dickenson County 44.6% -3.9% 0.99
Dinwiddie County 57.2% 0.0% 1.08
Emporia City 46.4% 2.7% 1.15
Essex County 53.1% 0.0% 1.08
Fairfax City 42.6% -5.2% 0.96
Fairfax County 40.0% -5.9% 0.94
Falls Church City 28.5% -5.6% 0.90
Fauquier County 57.3% -6.3% 0.97
Floyd County 57.2% -4.6% 1.00
Fluvanna County 53.5% -5.4% 0.98
Franklin City 46.1% 0.5% 1.09
Franklin County 60.7% -2.5% 1.04
Frederick County 62.3% -5.6% 0.99
Fredericksburg City 40.0% -4.9% 0.96
Galax City 51.8% -5.4% 0.98
Giles County 53.6% -4.1% 1.00
Gloucester County 59.9% -8.0% 0.95
Goochland County 60.7% -3.9% 1.02
Grayson County 59.2% -6.1% 0.98
Greene County 62.2% -3.7% 1.02
Greensville County 43.0% 2.3% 1.14
Halifax County 59.0% 2.0% 1.12
Hampton City 36.9% -5.1% 0.95
Hanover County 67.2% -4.1% 1.02
Harrisonburg City 49.8% -6.0% 0.96
Henrico County 49.7% -4.2% 1.00
Henry County 54.9% -2.1% 1.04
Highland County 63.1% -1.5% 1.05
Hopewell City 54.9% 1.3% 1.11
Isle Of Wight County 57.3% -5.2% 0.99
James City County 53.3% -7.7% 0.94
King & Queen County 53.1% 0.3% 1.09
King George County 58.8% -5.9% 0.98
King William County 61.8% -2.2% 1.04
Lancaster County 57.1% -2.7% 1.03
Lee County 55.5% -2.5% 1.03
Lexington City 36.0% -5.8% 0.93
+Loudoun County 48.7% -7.0% 0.94
Louisa County 56.0% -2.9% 1.03
Lunenburg County 56.4% 1.9% 1.12
Lynchburg City 52.0% -2.7% 1.03
Madison County 57.6% -4.0% 1.01
Manassas City 51.1% -5.1% 0.98
Manassas Park City 50.4% -3.8% 1.00
Martinsville City 42.8% -2.5% 1.02
Mathews County 59.6% -8.6% 0.94
Mecklenburg County 59.0% 1.8% 1.11
Middlesex County 59.0% -3.0% 1.03
+Montgomery County 47.5% -6.7% 0.95
Nelson County 46.3% -3.2% 1.01
New Kent County 63.6% -4.5% 1.01
Newport News City 43.4% -4.0% 0.99
Norfolk City 34.1% -3.3% 0.99
Northampton County 44.2% -4.4% 0.98
Northumberland County 58.5% -1.3% 1.06
+Norton City 47.7% -3.3% 1.01
Nottoway County 54.4% -0.4% 1.07
Orange County 56.6% -3.3% 1.02
Page County 59.9% -4.8% 1.00
Patrick County 58.3% -8.7% 0.94
Petersburg City 19.8% 1.0% 1.14
Pittsylvania County 65.2% 0.7% 1.09
Poquoson City 69.1% -8.2% 0.97
Portsmouth City 34.9% -3.6% 0.98
Powhatan County 71.2% -2.4% 1.05
-Prince Edward County 51.8% 3.0% 1.15
Prince George County 60.6% -0.8% 1.07
+Prince William County 48.1% -4.7% 0.98
Pulaski County 56.7% -4.9% 0.99
+Radford City 45.9% -7.0% 0.94
+Rappahannock County 47.2% -6.4% 0.95
Richmond City 26.7% -2.4% 0.99
Richmond County 62.0% 0.0% 1.08
Roanoke City 41.5% -4.7% 0.97
Roanoke County 58.6% -6.5% 0.97
Rockbridge County 54.8% -4.1% 1.00
Rockingham County 69.7% -4.7% 1.01
+Russell County 48.8% -4.4% 0.99
Salem City 57.1% -4.8% 1.00
Scott County 61.6% -3.4% 1.02
Shenandoah County 63.3% -5.7% 0.99
Smyth County 61.2% -3.0% 1.03
Southampton County 51.6% -2.0% 1.04
Spotsylvania County 56.8% -5.9% 0.98
Stafford County 55.1% -6.9% 0.96
Staunton City 51.6% -8.7% 0.92
+Suffolk City 49.1% -3.0% 1.02
Surry County 42.7% -1.1% 1.05
Sussex County 47.3% 3.8% 1.17
Tazewell County 55.6% -1.9% 1.05
Virginia Beach City 52.3% -6.8% 0.96
Warren County 55.9% -5.2% 0.99
Washington County 62.0% -3.5% 1.02
Waynesboro City 56.3% -7.7% 0.95
+Westmoreland County 49.1% -1.0% 1.06
Williamsburg City 39.5% -8.3% 0.89
Winchester City 50.3% -6.2% 0.96
Wise County 53.1% -5.1% 0.98
Wythe County 62.9% -5.6% 0.99
York County 58.8% -6.1% 0.98
My analysis: There's no landslide here -- we squeaked out a tiny victory by gaining little bits wherever we could. The table by congressional district, though, shows us where the gains and losses were:
By Congressional District:
VA-01 54.5% -5.6% 0.98
VA-02 51.0% -6.7% 0.95
VA-03 30.6% -2.5% 1.00
VA-04 54.1% -2.7% 1.03
VA-05 53.8% -2.2% 1.04
VA-06 58.3% -4.8% 1.00
VA-07 56.7% -4.4% 1.00
VA-08 30.0% -5.2% 0.92
VA-09 54.9% -5.1% 0.99
+VA-10 48.9% -6.2% 0.96
+VA-11 44.2% -5.8% 0.95
My analysis: The two districts that 'flipped' for Webb are both in the Northern Virginia area, as is Allen's most-underperforming district, VA-08. But we see that Allen gained ground in only two districts. One of these, VA-04, was one of only ten districts in the nation where Democrats did not run a House candidate. Here we see another reason for the 50-state strategy -- since Randy Forbes did not have a Democratic opponent to run against, he could spend more time in VA-04 stumping for Allen.
George Allen's Ten Most Underperforming Localities:
- Charlottesville City (0.87)
- Williamsburg City (0.89)
- Falls Church City (0.90)
- Covington City (0.90)
- Arlington County (0.91)
- Staunton City (0.92)
- Albemarle County (0.93)
- +Alleghany County (0.93)
- Lexington City (0.93)
- +Radford City (0.94)
Charlottesville City is an enclave in Albemarle County, as Covington is in Alleghany, so that in some sense this list contains only eight "places": To top off the list, #11 was Patrick County and #12 was Fairfax County, each at 0.94.
My analysis: George Allen's loss came from Virginia's cities, but it turns out not just the cities in Northern Virginia, where the pundits said Webb was strongest. Five of the top ten localities in this list are in the 540 area code, along the Shenandoah Valley corridor.
George Allen's Ten Most Outperforming Localities
- Sussex County (1.17)
- Emporia City (1.15)
- -Prince Edward County (1.15)
- Greensville County (1.14)
- Petersburg City (1.14)
- Brunswick County (1.13)
- Charles City County (1.12)
- Lunenburg County
- Halifax County (1.12)
- Mecklenburg County (1.11)
My analysis: Here's the clincher -- five of these localities are in the unchallenged VA-04, and the other five are adjacent to it (in VA-05). Without money and volunteers flowing in to promote a candidate for the House, we were running the race in VA-04 with one leg, and here's where it shows.
In 2008, we'll be engaged in a presidential election, and if we want to turn Virginia from purple to blue, we'll have to find challengers for every local race in Virginia, not just the ones we think are winnable -- these challengers will help build the party and help register new Democrats and get them to vote in November. I do NOT want my state to end up casting its electoral votes for Jeb!