There are multiple reasons to think we may still take the NM-01 House seat away from Heather Wilson. Her current lead is under 1,500 votes, prior to the count of provisional and in-lieu-of-absentee ballots.
Gap shrinkage in these ballots is the main one and funny business on election day is interesting in its own right. See details below the fold.
GAP SHRINKAGE I looked into the sources of ballots that went largely uncounted after the 2004 cycle. The in-lieu-of and provisional ballots come overwhelmingly from Democratic precincts. I can go into detail on my (admittedly limited) research and the reasons if they're not obvious. There is every reason to think these may break higher than 10:1 pro-Madrid (or anti-Wilson/Bush, depending on what you think a Dem vote meant). The key is to validate these voters and their ballots so they actually get counted. Call the Madrid campaign <http://www.madridforcongress.com/contact> or NM Democratic Party to see what kinds of help are needed.
2. FUNNY BUSINESS There are a number of stories floating around, including:
* organized calls misdirecting voters to non-existent or incorrect polling places from Repub sources; and
* Voters with more-than-adequate ID being forced to vote provisionally or not given a ballot at all. See here <http://www.democracyfornewmexico.com/democracy_for_new_mexico/2006/11/serious_countin.html> for in-depth discussion of the chaos during absentee ballot counting.