Somehow I found myself on Bobby Jindal's mailing list (I think because of some messages I sent his office in the aftermath of Katrina). Anyway, I figured there was no reason to unsubscribe. Tonight he sent out an email to his "supporters" announcing that he is taking the preliminary steps to challenge Kathleen Blanco (D) as the governator of Louisiana.
The entire (long) text of his email will be in the comments. Below the flip for my thoughts.
This is shaping up to be a re-match of 2003, when Blanco defeated Jindal in the run-off election 52% to 48%. Blanco captured 730,737 votes to Jindal's 676,180. Obviously, the political dynamics of Louisiana have changed dramatically since Katrina and Rita, particularly in New Orleans, a democratic stronghold that helped Blanco win in 2003. Blanco is from South Louisiana and also tends to do well in Cajun country (Carville is probably a fan).
I don't think things look good for Blanco. Her approval ratings are pretty sucky (I think she is hovering around 40%). She doesn't have a good relationship with New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin. Nagin endorsed Jindal in 2003 and Nagin and Blanco have publicly had serious disagreements and a poor relationship before, during, and after Katrina. If there is another Jindal-Blanco runoff, I bet Nagin would endorse Jindal again, though I hope he would endorse whatever Democrat is challenging Blanco for the general election.
From my perspective, Blanco has been a dud. She is already almost as conservative as Jindal on many issues. Blanco really seemed in over her head with Katrina and I will admit that, as my house sat in 6 feet of water, there were times when I was wishing Jindal had won in 2003 (of course, I was also wishing Gore has won in 2000 and Kerry in 2004).
Jindal is very intelligent (can you say "Rhodes Scholar") and a guy who thinks outside the box. He sometimes sounds a bit like a used car salesman (he talks quite fast), but is generally impressive. Plus he was just re-elected with something like 88% of the vote for his congressional seat (LA-01). He plays very well with the conservative base, though I doubt he will get the white supremacist vote or the "I hate brown people" vote (he's Indian-American).
Personally, I think the combination of depressed democrat demographics after Katrina, frustration over Blanco's handling of the Hurricanes, and the general trending of Louisiana toward the GOP makes this a lean-GOP takeover in 2007.
If the Dems had a better candidate who could beat Blanco in the general election (remember, Louisiana has a general election with all the candidates from all parties followed by a run-off among the top 2 vote-getters if no candidate recieves 50%), then we would stand a better chance. It would be nice if Mitch Landrieu challenged Blanco, but its hard to seem the Lieutenant Governor challenging the governor of the same party.
If Jindal is elected, then his LA-01 seat would be up-for-grabs in 2008. Of course, LA-01 is generally the suburbs of New Orleans and is not really democrat-friendly territory. We would need either a very good democrat candidate (like a Trauner or Kleeb) or a very bad republican candidate (like a Sali) to stand a chance, imo.
Also, I reserve the right to crack a joke about flooding in the poll answers since my house flooded!