One Democrat has declared for the presidency, Tom Vilsack, 2-term governor of Iowa, former head of the Democratic Governors Association (like Howard Dean), head of the DLC (Bill Clinton), governor of a small state not doing well in the polls 2 years out (Jimmy Carte, Bill Clinton). Regular readers of this site know that I'm friends with Tom because of a common interest in education. I'm also regularly informed of his doings by his people. While I haven't endorsed him (or anyone) at this point, I think it worthwhile to point you at several things that might be worth your time to examine. I will start by noting Tom has been a dkos diarist here as you can see by his user page here; he features a link to it on the home page of his new campaign website, along with other interesting links.
NOTE - Tom was expected to lose each time he first ran for an office - mayor of Mount Pleasant, State Senator, Governor. He has never lost an election.
Tom has made two recent appearances on broadcast media. On November 21st, he appeared on Wolf Blitzter's The Situation Room. Blitzer was his usual self (and I will not bother to apply the appropriate adjectives), but Tom was able to stay focused on what he wanted to talk about without coming across as rude. You can view that video either here or at Youtube (and there are a batch of other Youtube links available here)
Tom also appeared on the Tavis Smiley radio show on November 20, and you can listen to that here
You will here Governor Vilsack talk about energy security, and discuss in passing what has been done in Iowa. You will see and hear make clear he welcomes other Democrats to come and campaign for the Iowa caucuses, even suggesting they campaign together and fully discuss the issues.
There are a number of measures of the reality of a presidential - or any other - political candidacy. Standing in the polls is of course one measure we tend to use, and here Governor Vilsack is simply not known outside of Iowa, and hence draws at best about 1% (but I remind people that in December of 1975 Jimmy Carter was only drawing about 3%). Perhaps more telling is that the most recent poll in Iowa only had him in 4th place, well behind front runner John Edwards. But that was before the Democrats did quite well on November 7, which potentially could improve Vilsack's standing. It may be more meaningful to see how he does in polls after he has officially kicked off the campaign. That will occur with an official announcement event in Mount Pleasant, which was his wife's home town and where he practiced law with her father, and his first "big" event in DesMoines on December 2.
Another measure of a candidacy is how effective it is at raising funds. Here we do not yet have a measure of Tom Vilsack, because he has not ever run a Federal campaign, where you are limited to 2,100 per person. One reason he has officially jumped in to the race is that he has no Federal campaign accounts from which he can transfer funds, and thus is starting from ground zero and needs to begin the process of federal fund raising immediately. He was able to demonstrate some fundraising capability in his recent efforts to elect state officials through his HeartlandPac. He provided a forum for developing ideas - I first got involved with the effort on education, and there were additional efforts on things like healthcare. He also focused attention on state level races, starting with governors, and especially focusing on Secretaries of State (and he was an early advocate of Jennifer Brunner in Ohio). He helped raise money for such candidates, and raised awareness of them nationally. In the process he built himself some good will, as can be seen by a site such as this one in Ohio.
The third thing at which many people look at is the quality and experience of the campaign staff. On November 9, as part of extensive coverage of Vilsack's intention to run, the Desmoines Register had this sidebar on Vilsack's campaign staff:
Craig Varoga, national campaign manager: Varoga, a political consultant formerly of Houston, was a top consultant to Vilsack’s 1998 and 2002 gubernatorial campaigns. More recently, he was the national field director for retired Gen. Wesley Clark’s 2004 presidential campaign.
Shari Yost-Gold, national finance adviser: Yost-Gold, finance director for Sen. Joe Lieberman’s 2004 presidential campaign, has been Vilsack’s Heartland PAC finance director.
Cheryl Parker-Rose, senior policy adviser: Parker-Rose was a top strategic assistant for Services Employees International Union, one of the nation’s largest and fastest growing unions, before becoming Heartland PAC’s senior adviser.
Jeff Link, senior communications strategist: Link, of Des Moines, is a former top political aide to Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin and managed Vice President Al Gore’s general election campaign in Iowa in 2000. Link was a top consultant to Waterloo Democrat Bruce Braley’s winning U.S. House campaign this year.
Dusky Terry, Iowa state director: Terry, who will run Vilsack’s campaign for the Iowa caucuses, served as policy director in Vilsack’s administration. He ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic nomination for Iowa secretary of agriculture in June.
Teresa Vilmain, senior adviser: Vilmain is a longtime Iowa Democratic operative with national credentials. She has been a longtime Vilsack adviser and ran the Iowa caucus campaigns for Gary Hart and Michael Dukakis. Vilmain ran the Democratic National Committee’s 2004 general election strategy and was an adviser to Iowa Gov.-elect Chet Culver’s campaign.
Other staff: Other staff expected to be named today are Roy Behr, media consultant; Alice Parker, director of scheduling and Michael Hayden, national finance director.
I'd like to offer a couple of observations about the staff. First, Tom Vilsack is obviously quite prepared for Iowa caucuses, given the experience of some of the staff people. Second, he has clearly recognized the importance of the Nevada Caucuses - Parker-Rose has the SEIU connection which should be very helpful in making connections with the union workers in the Las Vegas hotels and casinos. Finally, Yost-Gold has far more experience than merely what she did for Lieberman. I found an article about her when she left as director of Finance of DSCC in 2001 which offers the following:
Yost supervised a 15-member fundraising staff for the DSCC that brought in $86.5 million, surpassing the National Republican Senatorial Committee for the first time. Her performance was credited with playing a major role in the Democratic Party's net pick-up of four U.S. Senate seats last year. DSCC executive Director Jim Jordan has called Yost "the top professional fundraiser in the party."
I have probably offered enough background information for the day before Thanksgiving. Let me offer just a few thoughts I think worthy of keeping in mind.
- Tom Vilsack is a very serious man, as much of a policy wonk as were Bill Clinton or Michael Dukakis
- He can offer a somewhat compelling life story. He was an orphan, adopted into a family with a step-mother who struggled for a longtime with addiction, wound up becoming mayor after his predecessor was shot to death in the middle of a public meeting.
- He has leadership skills that have been recognized by his peers.
- He did a lot of work to help state level democratic officials get elected this past cycle, and may have some IOUs which he can utilize.
- I can tell you from personal dealings that he listens well, that he is quite good at the kind of retail politics that are so important in Iowa and New Hampshire.
- He is a decent, if not scintillating, public speaker. He is not Barack Obama, but he is more effective than many who have contended for high office.
- He is known for his ability to focus
- He has a track record of success, and does not lack confidence
- He has been building a national support network over the past year or more, one that has not been visible to many who comment upon politics.
I consider Tom a friend. This diary is not intended as any kind of endorsement. I felt it worth the time to try to introduce someone whom it would be a real mistake to underestimate.
His campaign may never get off the ground. He could also turn out to be someone of such real substance that people are increasingly drawn to him. We do not yet know the shape of the field, nor do we know the issues which will be on people's minds in a year or so. But since Tom Vilsack has entered the race, I thought a little introduction on my part was warranted.