VA-02 was a target seat this year for a Democratic Party takeover of the House. Freshman Thelma Drake (R-Norfolk) seemed ripe to topple. After Iraq War Veteran David Ashe (D), who lost to Drake in '04 by 55.08% to 44.82 %, dropped out of the race to pave the way for Virginia Beach Commissioner of Revenue Phil Kellam (D), things were looking pretty good. Kellam, member of a well known Virginia Beach Democratic political family, was the only Citywide elected Democratic Official, this city accounts for approximately 68% of the District's population. Drake hails from the smaller though Democratic leaning Norfolk. Virginia Beach is historically Republican at both the National & Local level, though Gov. Tim Kaine (D) narrowly carried the city in 2005 and carried the district by 3.02%, former Gov. Mark Warner came within 0.15% of carrying the District in 2001. Besides the City of Viginia Beach, the District includes 23 + 2 (AT/CV) Precincts in the City of Norfolk, 12(+2 A/T) precincts in the City of Hampton and the Eastern Shore Counties of Accomack & Northampton. More below the fold..
In my quest to discover why Phil Kellam was unable to unseat Drake, in a District I had called home for almost two decades, I did a little research and located two websites: Not Larry Sabato and Vivian J. Paige of Norfolk.
The links will lead you to not only their analysis of what happened here but blog comments from those even closer to the ground or with a differing perspective.
My personal take on this race was re-affirmed on a few of the following points:
- The Kellam Political dynasty is not a reliably powerful entity and is unknown to many of the transient voters in the Distict, read: of little impact.
- Kellam avoided debates with Drake after his initial and only debate with Drake in mid-June. His performance in that debate was perceived as “unsteady” by the press.
- Grassroots/Ground Support was too light.
- Kellam failed to clearly delineate himself as much different from Drake politically & ideologically. Granted in this conservative leaning-Military heavy District that might seem like a good thing but I don't think it worked to Kellam's advantage in the type of Wave year we just saw.
- Momentum damage from disclosures about Kellam's past.
- Failure to secure major newspaper endorsement in the District and failure to dent the potenially vulnerable Drake in the press.
- Lack of coordination with VA Dem Party major leaders for campaign support.
- The RNC Robocalls against both Kellam & Webb.
Take a look at these links and the information contained within and see what you think.
A look back at the 2nd Congressional District
http://notlarrysabato.typepad.com/...
Kellam: the turning point
http://vivianpaige.wordpress.com/...
Thanks to both those sites and the Commentators for their analysis & input.
Election Results VA-02
2001 Governor
Earley-R 60,66349.75%
Warner-D 60,474 49.60%
2004 Pres
Kerry-D 101,576 41.53%
Bush-R 141,097 57.69%
2005 Governor
Kilgore-R 64,955 46.79%
Kaine-D 69,153 49.81%
2006 Senate
Allen-R 89,145 51.04%
Webb-D 83,268 47.67%
2006 VA-02
Drake-R 88,777 51.27%
Kellam-D 83,901 48.45%
Source: Commonwealth of Virginia, Board of Elections 11-19-06
Congressional District Map Link
http://en.wikipedia.org/...
This Diary was originally posted at Swing State Project on 11-19-06.
Background:
I Lived and worked in VA-02 (Norfolk & Virginia Beach) for a decade and a half. Also lived and worked in Chesterfield County, Henrico County, City of Chesapeake, New Kent County and Montgomery County for over 5 years. I worked on the campaign staffs of Former Lt. Gov. Henry Howell, Former Gov & Sen. Chuck Robb, Former Gov. Doug Wilder, Former Cong. Norman Sisisky, Former Cong. Owen Pickett, Former St. Sen. Madison Marye, Former St. Sen. Sonny Stallings, Former City Councilwoman Betty Howell, Former Delegate Glenn Croshaw and Former Delegate Howard Copeland.
Former Dem Precinct Chair in the City of Virginia Beach. My apologies that all attempts to blockquote anything here was unsuccessful after 8 attempts.