Ben Cardin and Martin O'Malley have made things more interesting than they ought to have been. I've always believed that Cardin was in OK shape but that O'Malley, particularly recently, was more shaky. And all the recent talk was about momentum being on the side of Steele and Ehrlich.
Probably the most annoying polls, particularly for Cardin, were those put out by Survey USA, which, even when Cardin led other polls by 8-10 points or more, persistently showed Steele either ahead or tied.
This afternoon comes news that for the first time, Cardin leads Steele in a Survey USA poll.
Read on.
In September, Steele led Cardin in a SUSA poll by
48-47.
In October, the race was tied, 46-46.
In early November, the race continued to be tied, 47-47.
Today, in the final Survey USA poll, Cardin leads, 49-46. No internals up yet.
On the governor's race, the late October poll showed O'Malley and Ehrlich tied. Today, it's 50-48, O'Malley, showing at least some momentum in the direction of a Democratic pickup.
What this suggests is what I have been feeling nationally: there was a Republican rally in the bottom of the ninth inning, and it has been snuffed out. While some of these races will end up closer than they ought to, I still think that 5-7 Senate seats and 30-35 House seats is the right answer.
Either way, it's gonna be a bumpy ride. Break out the Maalox.