I don't think it's sinking in enough with the Beltway pundits, how large a victory the Democrats have achieved. So, here's a fact that everyone should know, use, spread, and just generally internalize:
The Democrats have more seats in the House right now than the GOP has had since the "do-nothing" Congress of 1947-1948, more than at any point in the Gingrich years that are seen as such a dominant GOP era.
Numbers and more thoughts below the flip ...
First, let me make a point about the Ciro/Bonilla election yesterday. After the Democratic defeat in the 2002 election, Mary Landrieu had to run in a runoff at the beginning of December. The Democrats got up off the mat, put a lot of resources and effort into the race, and Landrieu pulled it off. It was an important victory to blunt the GOP momentum a bit and show that the Democrats weren't out.
Yesterday, by contrast, the GOP was completely cooked. They could do nothing to stop the Democratic tide from sweeping away an incumbent Congressman. The NRCC seemingly did nothing, and while the Democrats brought in Bill Clinton, the GOP could not counter with anyone of comparable stature. That party is in freefall right now, and it could get much worse over the next couple of years.
Now, the numbers ... the Democrats, after Ciro's surprise thumpin' of Bonilla last night, now have 233 seats in the House. After the 1994 election, the GOP had 230, which drifted down before rebounding some in the last couple years and peaking after the Texas redistricting in the 232 they had last Congress. But the Democrats overcame all that redistricting shenanigans to post a larger majority than the Republicans had during all that time of the "Republican Revolution."
In fact, since the Great Depression ended the 19th Century's political map in this country, the GOP has had as many as 233 seats exactly once, when they had 246 in that 1947-8 session.
And it could get worse for Republicans. They won, iirc, 14 of the 23 seats that were within 2 points last election. Plus, the big takeaway from yesterday's election is that Hispanics are truly turning away from the GOP in droves.
So, here's the big point: no matter the denial flowing from pundits who keep acting as if this election was a minor blip or merely a tactical victory for the Democrats, this is major Democratic moment. Instead of thinking of an evenly-divided electorate with a strong chance of a GOP comeback, they should realize that a more likely future is that this is the beginning of a solid period of Democratic majority rule in this country. The demographics of who's voting for whom, the growth rates of those demographics, the overwhelming Democratic advantage among younger voters, the power of incumbency to maintain majorities ... all of this points to a major shift to Democrats.
But the next two years are crucial. If the Democrats do what they were elected to do--put as much pressure as possible to get out of Iraq, hold the administration accountable, investigate corruption and make our government work, and enact legislation that helps people live their lives and make enough money--and if we can continue to build the progressive infrastructure of the 50-state Project and new media, then we can expand our majorities in 2008, and the GOP won't have a chance to get back in power for at least a decade, probably two.
We're no longer the underdogs, folks. We're on top and looking to expand our margins.