Much has been said over what the results of the special election run-off in the Texas 23d CD tell us about party voting patterns amongst Mexican-American voters. There is certainly much to say here, as the Latino population in the US is the fastest growing demographic group, and it is only a matter of time before the 'ol demographics bite the Texas Rs in the ass if these voters stay in the Democratic column. Come do some analysis with me after the fold.
There are three counties in the 23d that are overwhelmingly Mexican-American in composition. Zavala (Crystal City), Dimmit (Carrizo Springs), and Maverick (Eagle Pass) counties are all at least 95% Mexican-American. Combined, these 3 counties voted for Ciro Rodriguez (D) by 83%-27%. If you accept the proposition that Mexican-Americans are more likely than Anglos to have voted for Ciro than for Henry Bonilla (R), then it is safe to say that Ciro won the Mexican-American vote in these counties by around 85%, after you remove an estimated 5-10% of the Anglo voters in these counties.
How these counties responded in the Tex:23d run-off is a perfect microcosm for testing the R talking points on what is supposedly going to drive Latinos over to the R Party. Both candidates are Mexican-Americans who sprang from working class immigrant roots in South San Antonio, rendering ethnicity irrelevant in analyzing why Mexican-Americans in these counties voted overwhelmingly for Ciro. Ciro has been a solid supporter in Congress of reproductive rights and gay rights, and of the separation of church and state -- positions which according to the Rs are driving Latinos to the R Party. However, Ciro voted against the war resolution, for an increase in the minimum wage, for immigrant rights, and for expanded veteran benefits. By 85% to 15%, Mexican-American voters in these counties, and by implication in the rest of the CD, shrugged off the supposed "values" agenda carried by Bonilla, and instead embraced the Democratic Party values embodied by Ciro. Mexican-American voters, then, are by dramatic numbers more in tune with the progressive values of the Democratic Party, than with the wedge social issues championed by the R Party. While Mexican-American voters may not agree with abortion, or with gay marriage, what the Rs are not counting on is the tolerance of these voters for the right of the individual to choose. It is this culture of tolerance, which will keep Mexican-Americans in the Democratic camp. The Rs are barking up the wrong tree, in my estimation, and I believe this election proves it.
Finally, what determined Ciro's victory? While there was a drop-off of only 6% of the number of ballots cast in these 3 counties between the regular election of November, 2006, and the run-off in December, there was a dramatic drop-off of 47% in the ballots cast in these two elections when looking at the R strongholds of Medina and Uvalde counties. Bottom line -- Ciro's campaign ran a superb ground game. Let this be a lesson for us -- field work is the key!
It truly warms my heart to see that the Rs have hit a brick wall in recruiting Mexican-American voters. We are the key to turning Texas blue, and I predict it will happen sooner than later.