In 2006, the only major Maryland elections were the gubernatorial and senatorial races. In both cases, the Republican (Robert Ehlrich and Michael Steele) lost. Might both resurge in the next cycle or two? What Maryland House races might be competitive in 2008?
Check out my new blog, Rockin' Catoctin, which aims primarily to cover local news in Frederick County, a rapidly growing area in the outer rim of the DC-Baltimore suburbs. The latest update includes some local political news of note, some of which I also cover below (but there's more in the blog, so check it out).
Giuliani/Ehlrich? Steele running to take Barbara Mikulski's Senate seat in 2010? Shake-ups in both the Republican-held Maryland House seats? Read on for more.
First, for the more remote rumors for those who are interested: According to the Freepers, Michael Steele is interested in running for Governor in 2010, with possible Lieutenant Governors ranging from local State Sen. Alex Mooney to maverick PG County executive Wayne Curry. The Freepers also look ahead to 2010, no doubt realizing that 08 is a loser for them in the Senate. That year, a retirement from Barbara Mikulski is in the cards. Steele is floated there again too - and probably another failure, perhaps to Elijah Cummings, Dutch Ruppersburger, Anthony Brown or Chris Van Hollen. The Freepers even mention Albert Wynn, as though he'll survive 08 in any position to run for Senate.
But of far more interest to me is MD-06, the seat currently held by Republican Roscoe Bartlett. He's getting quite old, and the rumors of retirement swirl on. If that happens, it could be a very winnable race for the Democrats. Though the sixth district is Maryland's most conservative, that isn't saying much considering the indigo blue tradition of Maryland politics. Maryland's sixth has a long history of Democratic representation - from 1971 to 1993, it was represented by Goodloe Byron or his wife, Beverly, both Democrats. (Goodloe's mother, Katharine, was also a Democratic Rep from the Sixth, in the 1940s). Bartlett only won because Beverly Byron was a conservative Democrat that got primaried out, and Bartlett was a sacrificial lamb that became known as the "accidental Congressman" when he won in 1994.
Why is this relatively conservative, Republican-held seat a good target? Well, if Bartlett retires, there's the makings of a vicious Republican primary, which could leave a very wounded candidate. The presumptive Democrat is Andrew Duck, a Fighting Dem who never quite got traction this year. Bartlett won this race, which was on no one's radar by Election Day, with only 58% (Green Party got 2.5%), and he'll be 82 in 2008, so retirement remains an excellent possibility.
And boy, the Republican candidates are diverse. I'll go through them one by one.
Scott Rolle is the State's Attorney for Frederick County. He lost his bid for Attorney General of Maryland in 2006 and lost a primary challenge of Roscoe Bartlett in 2004. That year, he challenged Bartlett for not being conservative enough - Bartlett is a near perfect conservative, but that wasn't enough for rabid ringnut Scott Rolle. Rolle criticized Bartlett for supporting discussion with the UN before invading Iraq - Bartlett did support the Iraq War even without UN approval, but Rolle was apparently upset that diplomacy was even considered. Plus, Bartlett voted for the Patriot Act with insufficient enthusiasm in Rolle's eyes. Rolle also challenged Bartlett for not supporting NCLB, for supporting the prescription drug benefit, which Rolle opposed; finally, Bartlett's anti-death penalty and anti-ANWR drilling stances were not extreme enough for Rolle.
Alex Mooney is a State Senator, a Cuban-American and considered one of the rising stars of the Maryland Republican party, and perhaps the most conservative member of Maryland State Senate. His stardom diminished this year, when he received a major challenge from Democrat Candy Greenway. It became one of the highest profile State Senate races in 2006. Though Mooney won, it tarnished his name; he's now been criticized again, by the local paper, for some rather arcane political reasons (for more, see Rockin' Catoctin) - in brief, he failed to support a member of the Frederick County delegation for Republican Minority Leader in the State Senate. This makes him not a team player for his constituency. Who was the Frederick County State Senator he didn't support? David Brinkley.
David Brinkley is a State Senator, representing both Frederick and Carroll Counties. Carroll is one of the most Republican counties in Maryland, and Brinkley is a rather milquetoast conservative, who was unopposed for re-election this year.
Rick Weldon is a relatively moderate Republican state legislator, nephew of crazier wingnut Curt Weldon of Pennsylvania. He's from Brunswick and is perceived as much less extreme than the likes of Rolle and Mooney. He survived a strong challenge from the local Democrat Paul Gilligan, but just barely.
Joe Bartlett Jr. is perceived as relatively moderate for a Republican, but still quite a bit more conservative than his father, Roscoe.
It would seem that Joe Bartlett may be Roscoe's appointed successor, but Rolle, with his statewide name recognition, could make it an interesting primary, especially if Mooney makes good on his much-rumored run as well. That would seem to pit the ostensibly establishment candidates, Brinkley and Weldon, against the radical Republicans Rolle and Mooney, with favorite son Joe Bartlett trying to coast in on his name. But check out this: Brinkley appears to be allied with Rolle, while Mooney and Joe Bartlett are linked and opposed to Brinkley (see the local scandal, "emailgate"). Joe Bartlett and Rick Weldon are also interestingly allied in a Western Maryland election slate - this GOP slate does not include Mooney or Brinkley, which is perhaps telling.
Bartlett has recently stated that he will be running for reelection in 2008. The possibility of a retirement (or even his death/resignation, as he will be 82, IIRC) still looms however. My guess is that he wants the field to be clear for his son, Joe, and no doubt the Republican establishment would like to capitalize on the Bartlett name recognition to keep from the seat from being competitive. But Brinkley, Mooney and Rolle are each major players in the state party, and Weldon's no lightweight either; after Rolle's unsuccessful run for Attorney General, they've got nowhere left to go. If Bartlett retired tomorrow and the primary were held the day after, what would happen? Well, Joe Bartlett's got no support beyond his name and a small base - he has a chance if his father dies in office and he stumbles in in a special election wave, buoyed by the sympathy vote. Assuming there's no special election, however, Joe Bartlett is unlikely to survive the primary. The three heavyweights are Mooney, Brinkley and Rolle - Weldon will probably give in to the Republican establishment and endorse Brinkley. In the end, then, I see a 3-way race between Mooney and Rolle on the hard right side, and Brinkley as the moderate. I think Rolle, will, in the end, drop out of the primary, or not run to begin with - I think he's more interested in statewide office, or MD GOP party politics. Bringing it down to Brinkley and Mooney, I think Mooney will come out the winner - Maryland is so Dem-dominated that many voters are Democratic registered even if they don't vote that way, so Republican primary voters tend to be very extreme.
If it winds up being Mooney vs Duck, this will likely be a competitive race, and I say likely only because Mooney's a good campaigner, not because Duck would do well (i.e. it's Duck's to lose). MD-06 may be conservative compared to Van Hollen's or Wynn's districts, but it's not extremist, and Duck's a great campaigner who will point out that Mooney's brand of conservativism isn't just about god, guns and gays, but is in fact, extreme and radical.
But, of course, that's two years away. If Mooney gets distracted by, say, the possibility of being Michael Steele's running mate in 2010, or running against Mikulski (or her successor) in that year's Senate race, then that would majorly shake up the primary. Brinkley might have a better chance then, and he and Duck could make it a first tier election.