While a lot of Ohio liberals are running on empty this week due the defeat of the RON issues, the road to 2006 is looking promising. According to recent Zogby statistics, Democrats are in the "pole" position; forgive the pun, to win in Ohio in 2006.
In the gubernatorial race, both Democratic candidates, Mike Coleman and Ted Strickland have pulled ahead of the Republican front-runner, Ken Blackwell, in a Zogby poll released this month. October's poll had Coleman and Strickland trailing Blackwell by about 1%. In November, Columbus Mayor Mike Coleman jumped ahead, moving from 43% approval to 44.2%, leading Blackwell's 42.9%. Strickland's numbers remained steady, edging his way from 43.4% to 43.9% to also pull ahead of Blackwell. Coleman seems to have the most momentum, claiming the highest approval rating and the most votes (44.2%) of all three candidates.
The other Republican candidates, Jim Petro and Betty Montgomery are falling behind fast. Petro is being steadily out paced by the Democrats. Montgomery, who is approaching a double-digit deficit, is preparing to get lapped.
A recent WSJ/Zogby Interactive poll shows both Democratic challengers, Paul Hackett and Sherrod Brown, leading Republican Sen. Mike Dewine in the first leg of he race. Brown is edging out Dewine by 3% (Brown 40%, Dewine 37%, while Hackett is breaking out in an unexpected 10% lead over the incumbent (Hackett 45%, Dewine 35%). Despite Brown's substantial investment in his netroots engine, the chassis is weak; the crew chief just left for DC, and the driver is mimicking the racing style of others.
-Todd Hoffman
Disclaimer: I am currently doing contractual work for the Coleman for Governor Campaign.