Normally on this festive occasion I might let this Diary go for another day. However, I am still confused over the Main Stream Media's fascination and presumed coronation of Hillary as the DemocratIC nominee.
When I read comments like these, they get my attention.
Although Clinton commands considerable support among likely Democratic primary voters, she struggles in general election match-ups, according to the poll. If the contest were held today, both Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani would prevail over Clinton. Obama, in contrast, would eke out a slight win over both Republican candidates. Former Democratic vice presidential nominee John Edwards is neck-and-neck with the Republicans.
"There are a lot of independents. These are the same people who loathe Bush, loathe the Iraq war," said Del Ali, president of Research 2000, the Maryland-based nonpartisan polling firm that conducted the poll for the Monitor last Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. "But deep down, they don't like Hillary Clinton."
http://www.concordmonitor.com/...
In most polls where other candidates for democrats are lined up against republicans, Hillary tends to do the worst. I suspect in the future more and more polls will show that either Edwards or Obama will do better against a McCain than Hillary will. While the left of center blogs all show very poor support for Hillary (generally ~6% in straw polls), the MSM seems to think she is a done deal.
The second interesting phenonmenon to watch is where does Obama get his support? I don't think it can be generalized from state to state
In NH in the past poll, before the Obama surge.. (from mydd.com)
December 18 through 20 (Nov. 5)
Clinton: 22 (31)
Obama: 21 (Previously fourth place)
Edwards: 16 (19)
Gore: 10 (12)
So in this poll, Obama disproportionately pulled votes from Hillary. However, in the Iowa poll - Obama seemed to pull more votes from Edwards.
http://jonathan__singer.mydd.com/...
December 18-20, MoE +/- 4.0%*
John Edwards: 22 percent (36)
Barack Obama: 22 percent (13)
Tom Vilsack: 12 percent (9)
Hillary Clinton: 10 percent (16)
These are different polling agencies so they are probably not directly comparable, however, I think one potential observation is that Hillary even for those people that support her now are not sold on her. Hillary's "supporters" might be shopping/hoping for someone else.
The questions that loom in my mind are:
- Will the MSM repeat the electability argument to the sheeple regarding Hillary? High negatives, high name recognition and worse than Edwards and Obama in GOP matchups?
- Will John Edwards be more "aggressive" or effective in drawing contrasts between himself and other candidates this time? Many feel he needs to be more confrontational this time or at least draw a line in the sand to distinguish himself from Hillary and Obama. The word "fight" is used a lot.
- How will Edwards do the delicate walk of differentiating himself from either a woman or african american without having unintended consequences. (I'ld suggest using Elizabeth Edwards as much as possible. I'd love to see a poll comparing her favorability to Hillary's.)
- Will the MSM continure to treat Obama with Kid gloves? Can obama get through the primaries without taking hard stances on things like Health care (Universal right?), getting out of Iraq now that we're there, and trade agreements? Will Obama be treated in a color blind fashion?