In other democratic systems, elections are called when the ruling coalition has lost enough support that a vote of no confidence can be sustained. Our republic is organized differently, but the political reality is that this Government is approaching the same point at which a vote of no confidence would happen in these other systems. In our system, that means we need to prepare for when that point is reached.
The focus on impeachment recently reflects a passonate desire to have the Democratic majority "do the right thing", and impeachment is the only mechanism by which we can recall the Administrative branch -- but we the voters have already recalled the Legislative branch. Instead of focusing on impeachment or other Government remedy, we need to focus on the opportunities, growing daily, of capitalizing on the nearing point of no confidence in this Administration. We need to do this now because the public is going to reach this point in the next few months, and the window of opportunity will be upon us while we are still parsing language if we are not careful.
Point Of No Confidence: March 21, 2007
Point of No Return: When Bush announces a surge in Iraq
Whatever we may want our Representatives to do, we all want to be ready for the point at which no confidence is reached. Whether we follow the polls or listen to our friends, family and neighbors who voted for Bush, we can all see that the People are quickly approaching no confidence in this Government. Those of us who follow the news closely, read the books coming out at an unprecedented rate the past few years and seek out fellow citizens who want to change the national conversation back to progressing together into a hopeful future have never had "confidence" in this Government in the first place, or lost it after a brief flirtation with the anger and frustration after 9-11. We have been a minority, but will be one no longer, and it will happen so fast we will be in that moment before we know it.
Based on reflecting on the history of Watergate and the Nixon resignation, and my recollection of that time as I experienced it, I project that point of no confidence will be reached around the end of March, 2007. I have chosen the Spring Solstice as the point in time by which the moment is likely to have been reached. This projection is an intuition, but one which has grown out of pondering the information which has been flowing through dKos and many other sources over the past two years. Since Katrina, a shift in the People has been growing. The time frame is a feeling welling up from subtle changes in the conversations around me personally and in the tone and tenor of the talking heads on the MSM. A recognition of a place I have been before. A remembrance of the awe of seeing such a moment emerge suddenly and of feeling the true and full power of the People roused to speak unleashed like an act of God or a force of nature. I see it all around, and am amazed I had forgotten. I've been here before, and so have millions of my fellow citizens old enough to have been through the time we now call Watergate.
Instead of waiting for an absolute resolution in the form of impeachment, we can act upon this political reality and pull together to make the elections of 2008 the kind of turning point in our government that can last a generation. More importantly, we will have a chance to change the national conversation much sooner than 2008. When enough citizens are disillusioned with the current Administration, we will find those conversations are being picked up by the most unlikely people. If impeachment happens, so be it. But none of us controls such a thing and no one of us can say we were able to induce such a thing to come into being if it does. The reality will be beyond words, and the remedy will be undeniable by all the riches and power and cleverness amassed by those smug enough to think they can control it.
A Moment No So Long Ago, Forgotten Too Soon
Nixon was not impeached. He resigned. He was facing impeachment -- but more importantly he was told by leaders of his own party that he no longer had their confidence. I went to the rallies for impeachment at the time, when elected officials were finally willing to speak at the rallies. I remember the euphoria in the room, and the surprise of many people there that so many other people were actually ready to demand impeachment. Only a year before, Nixon had won by a landslide. Only weeks before, no one in an elected position would use the word. But the Saturday Night Massacre changed all that. When Nixon had to fire his Special Prosecutor, citizens all over the nation collectively knew the Administration was done. It was the most amazing thing and that's why I remember it so well.
In November, 2006, the People gave the Government the message. That message was clear and unequivocal. The Government is responding with equivocation -- and we have had the lame duck session and the holidays to allow the Administration to milk the remaining mercy and indulgence left to them while trying to restate the message. But all the tricks have been played already over the past thirty years since Reagan's campaign machine and modern spin control came to Washington. The People know, even before they are willing to say it out loud, when the message controllers are lying. That transition is happening right now.
Iraq will get worse. Now that we have executed Saddam, the Sunnis will mobilize and the Saudis will pay the freight. The lie that "the Iraqis executed Saddam under their own justice system", played ad nauseum today on the MSM, just doesn't cut it. Bush will announce the surge in January. The State Of The Union will be the same montage of tired slogans and code words. Iran and Syria will take maximum advantage. The British Government will slink away and hide as Blair counts down to resignation. Our "friends" will dump dollars for Euros.
When the "surge" starts to happen, when the daily leaks from Congressional committees outlast the stolen news cycles taken by other stories on the MSM, and when the causuality counts go past 3000; at that point the People will harden their hearts against the defiance of the Government. They will know they are being ignored. They will pass beyond the polite, but firm, message of November, 2006, just like they did in the winter of 1973. We will all find ourselves in undiscovered country, together for a moment as only Americans can be, and then only briefly. The People don't like to have to pay attention to politics, and never have. When we are forced to it, we want resolution fast and we want it done yesterday. With spring will come the fourth anniversary of the Iraq "war". By spring, the Administration will still have no vision for the future, no optimistic way through -- and everyone will know it.
In this moment, the People will be ready for a new conversation. Each of us who has hoped for the chance to be heard will have our chance. We all need to ponder this and prepare for it. In its own way, this Point Of No Confidence will be a chance to begin the conversation which should have followed 9-11, but was controlled by spin meisters. What any of us who is willing to speak -- eager to speak -- say to our fellow citizens as fellow citizens, in that crux, will matter.
A Moment Long Deferred, Finally Achieved
President Bush is not Nixon. He has not shown any concern for what the leaders of his party believe about his Administration. He has taken actions that damaged them politically, such as waiting to fire Rumsfeld until after the elections, and done so without slowing down.
He will continue on this course. Now he is turning on his "generals on the ground". He will continue to turn on those who would advise him. McCain wants Rove's mailing lists and GOTV machine, so he will bet on the war in Iraq without regard for the troops or the geopolitical realities.
As Bush approaches the point of no confidence by anyone else in power at this time, we have the opportunity to mobilize the Netroots community to a new level of influence. Indeed, we will tend to do so anyway. I believe we can use this opportunity to undertake a series of political transformations in coordination like we used in the elections to reverse the excesses of the Republican political movement since Reagan was elected, and do so by the 2008 elections.
I watched Countdown the week before Christmas. One of the shows consisted of four of Keith Olbermann's Special Comments and a brief background around each one. The whole flavor of the program resulted in a persuasive argument that the Bush Administration has lost the confidence of the People. The Administration officials have squandered their credibility. They have shown their ruthlessness and the insincerity of their message machine. It struck me as I watched and listened again to these Special Comments how many terms from Watergate days -- terms I had not noticed were being used a lot recently in several media sources -- were on display.
I am also struck by the defiance the present President is showing. Nixon at least tried to pretend, even after leaving office, that he was behaving honorably. This President left such pretense behind long ago. He is defying every free citizen who voted for change in the last election. Bush is now defying the People. He will not relent. He will not change his course. He will not yield to debate, consultation or argument. Unlike Nixon, Bush will not try to cover it up. He will simply say Congress has no right to criticize his actions or advise him in the prosecution of the "war on terrorism". He will stand alone, and he will experience oversight and criticism from all quarters unlike anything he has known and for which he is not prepared. He will make a mistake -- something that seems small at the time to him, but which reverberates through the zeitgeist like a shot in the quiet gloaming of a summer evening.
A Moment Unspeakable, In Which We Must Speak
And we will be there, together with our fellow citizens, united in a wordless way in knowing change must happen without undue delay and knowing that no spin machine can remove that knowledge. In that moment, those of us who prize liberty and who feel our voices have fallen on deaf ears will suddenly be heard without interference. We need to prepare for that moment now, and measure our words carefully. Those citizens who have avoided this moment until now will be ready for real discussion and real alternatives, and authenticity will matter more than anything else.
Are we ready? When the NoCon Point is reached, we better be. It will be our duty to speak, and it will be an historic opportunity upon which the future of our nation depends. See the point approaching and prepare. It will be a wonder and terrifying all at the same time. But it will be the People together in the moment, as we found ourselves in 1973. And in that moment, real change will happen, one way or another.
We have a little over 80 days to ponder -- maybe sooner but most likely no longer than that -- to find the words our fellow citizens need and will want to hear. Let us use that time to hone our ideas and prepare to cloak them in candid, honest and respectful words that alienate no one but those in power who refuse to listen to anything We The People have to say and their die-hard supporters -- the same people who answer "Yes" in polls asked if they would eat a live rat on TV, as a good friend of mine likes to say (around 12% in a poll he saw). Those people will always be out there, but the rest of us will be ready for change.
Get ready to write and speak like our lives depend on it, because they do. The Silent Majority doesn't like to have to speak, so when they are forced to do so, change will have to follow. The time for hints and do-overs is already long gone. When the Majority can no longer be Silent, those who refuse to hear will face the full force of our kind of democracy, and will find out you can't swim against a tsunami. Once roused to speak, reluctantly, because they have to, the People will not appreciate any dithering and will tolerate no delay.
Prepare yourselves, fellow Kossacks. Our chapter in history is about to be written. Make it worthy to be remembered by our children's children and for all time. Those of us who have stood to protest alongside those who have stood to post in Iraq and Afganistan will hold our nation's future in our hands.
Make ready to be heard, and sooner than you think.
The Series
T - 80 days
T - 70 days
T - 60 days