It's becoming more and more interesting to watch the Democrats posture for '08. But to be honest, I'm having more fun watching the Republicans. With Frist and Allen gone, a massive hole as been left in the field, leaving 98% of the GOP to lose what was left of their minds. Now they're seriously contemplating having to swallow their pride and accept the man they hate, John McCain, or a wannabe flaming liberal like Giuliani. It's just so hillarious to watch. Still, the feild is growing and getting more interesting as it does.
John McCain is the frontrunner, for now at least. In the past he's been much more moderate than others in his party, and I have to say I think I could get along with the man personally and used to like his politics (keep in mind, I'm only a sinner doing my best to repent), but now his call to send more troops to Iraq has made voting against him, for me at least, a moral imperative. The Religious Right doesn't trust him; the Club For Growth hates him; and I must admit it was so funny to listen to one of my conservative friends talk about how much he hates him in one of our classes. He's flip-flopped a bit trying to fix that little problem with the base, but that's cost him with the people that he really appealed to in the first place. Calling for an increase in troop levels in an increasingly unpopular war has only made it worse for him. Honestly, I'm fully expecting to watch everyone else dig in on him, with help from outside sources, and then he'll implode not unlike Howard Dean.
Rudy Giuliani is the other 800 pound, "moderate" gorilla. He's trying to ride 9/11 to the presidency, but I don't think the social conservatives will be able to stomach his liberal positions, though he may change them some before long. The guy has this way of mouthing off though, and just kinda pulling things out of thin air. I don't think that'll help him much when the campaign gets going.
The only other big dog in the race is Newt Gingrich. I don't need to say more, but I will. This guy is so damn arrogant. I've read about how he wants to start a movement of conservative ideas so that the American people will draft him to run. And I thought his head was big when he actually mattered. Earth to Newt, most Americans don't see the new and improved version of him appearing as a writer and a FOX commentator. Rather, they remember the Newt who tried to destroy a popular president by shutting down the government, who was upset because he was allegedly snubbed on Airforce One, and harped on Clinton's affairs while he served his dying wife with divorce papers so he could marry the secretary he was screwing around with. Newt Gingrich will never be President, thank God. However, considering the conservative void in the race, Republicans may turn to him , if they can convince the pompous windback to actually get out and campaign instead of waiting for a draft.
Now down to the guys who aren't so familiar to most Americans...yet.
I'll start off with Romney, namely because after the Macaca moment I was convinced he'd be the nominee. I first saw Romney in action on C-Span when he was canvassing in New Hampshire earlier this year. The guy oozes "politician", or as my partner, who doesn't follow politics quite as well as I do, so aptly put it, "He reminds me of a used car salesman." (Which won't be a good thing; polls show Americans trust them even less than lawyers, lol.) He's just so phony. Even his positions show it. When he was running for Senate against Ted Kennedy he ran as the most liberal of moderate Republicans. Ditto for his run for governor. Then, as soon as he became governor, he immediately retooled, becoming more conservative, so he could run for President, positioning himself as the anti-McCain. But now, even the crazies are catching on and beginning to abandon him. I still think he can recover though. It's early, and he can easily show up at the Christian Coalition or Club For Growth with a "I used to be a moderate but then I saw the light" type speech. He's going to have a problem with the Mormon thing, but I don't think that's insurmountable either. Should it come to Romney and McCain, I bet Robertson and his crowd will hold their noses and vote for the real pretend conservative (just like they did in 2000).
Then there's Sam Brownback. I really think this guy could be the sleeper candidate, sort of what John Kerry was for us in 2004. He's the true candidate for the Religious Right, as he's one of their own, a true believer compared to a part time supporter like Bush. Brownback takes his mixture of faith and politics very seriously, creating an interesting character who can both bash gays and oppose the genocide in Darfur in the same breath (unlike Bush who doesn't really give squat about either, but enough contrasting the two). Unlike many of the other candidates, Brownback doesn't have to reposition himself for this race, and with the growing network of the Religious Right and economic positions that will appeal to the CFG nuts, I think underestimating him will be a real mistake, even with his lack of charisma/name recognition.
Now we move on down to my neck of the woods to talk about Governor Mike Huckabee. He will not be the nominee, I promise. I've met him. He's a nice guy and we were able to find some common ground together. He tried to get tuition for the children of illegal immigrants here in Arkansas, which royally ticked off the far right guys who he refers to as the "Shiite Wing of the Republican Party" (he grinned a little sheepishly when I reminded him of that). He also has a few ethics problems that won't withstand scrutiny, and he can be childishly thin skinned. He's just not ready for this race, that's going to be the bottom line. The kicker to it all is that a poll taken here a few months back showed him losing in Arkansas to Hillary.
Moving back up to New York, we have Lil' Rudy, I mean George Pataki. Yes he's running in Rudy's shadow, been a disaster in his home state, kept a low profile compared to several other would be candidates, is rather boring, has held some liberal positions on social issues and (of course) made some awkward flip flops on them as of late. Yet he still seems to be running, for now at least. I don't see him getting very far and he'll probably drop out kinda like Bob Graham did last time around.
Now I'm going to move out west to McCain's pale stand in, Chuck Hagel. Hagel is at once more conservative than McCain on most issues, but much more closer to my position on the Iraq War. I honestly think the two of us would get along, and we'd probably be able to sit down and have a civil disagreement on the issues (one of my ex boyfriends actually got to meet him when he lived in Nebraska and said he was a great guy). Still, I remember vividly flipping the dial on the radio and hearing Sean Hannity screaming, "Enough! Enough of Chuck Hagel!" Is it any wonder there are rumors the guy will leave politics entirely?
Then there's Jim Gilmore, the former governor of Virginia. I don't know anything about him, other than Virginia was in pretty bad shape fiscally speaking when Warner took over, though that may not be entirely his fault to be fair, I don't know. I know he's got some financial connections to California, and correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't he RNC chairman? If so, the two factors could help him surprise us by raising a lot of money.
Frank Keating, the former governor of Oklahoma also is making some noise, complaining, like Gilmore, of the absense of a Reagan Conservative. He served in Reagan's administration, which will help him craft that image, and he has experience dealing with terrorism in the FBI and as Governor of Oklahoma (the Oklahoma City bombing took place during his tenure) to fall back on. Still, he has a little problem with some gifts he accepted, so much so that he was didn't get the AG post from Bush because of it, and you know things had to be bad for a scandal to keep him out of the Bush administration.
At the back of the back is Representative Duncan Hunter, the former (lol) chair of the House Armed Services Committee. No one saw his run coming until he announced, and I guess he's trying to be "Mister Military". I'm betting that gets him as far as it did Dick Lugar in '96.
Finally, bringing up the rear is Tommy Thompson-former governor and HHS Secretary under Bush. His campaign is going to be based around some sort of univeral healthcare, or perhaps better put as "affordable healthcare." How many Republicans do you think that will win over?
Am I forgetting anyone? Oh yes, the biggest nut of them all, Tom Tancredo. He's made a lot of enemies, even among Republicans, with some of his (many) stupid comments. The whole reason he wants to run for president is to put his anti-immigrant message front and center. That's already happened, so he may run for Allard's seat if he retires instead. But then again he may run just to spite McCain, and if he does it just means more division in the GOP and more solidifying of the Hispanic vote for us.