One of the things I like to look at when trying to get a sense of who is winning an election is a website called Intrade (www.intrade.com). Basically, the website is a "market" in which buyers and sellers trade contracts with real money. The contracts are about various different current events. I have found the political contracts to be staggeringly accurate when it comes to predicting the winner of a race. (I must say I was heartbroken when at the beginning of November 2004, Bush contracts traded above Kerry Contracts before I went off to vote).
Below the fold, I have included ALL of the 2006 Senate races and their associated bid price as of this morning for each party.
For example, here are the GOP Control of Congress Contracts (read the numbers just as you would a stock- 100 represents $10 and is the highest possible price, 0 represents $0 and is the lowest possible price):
GOP to retain control of the US Senate in 2006 election: BID: 86.0 ASK: 86.8 LAST: 87.0
GOP to retain control of the US House of Representatives in 2006 election: BID: 74.0 ASK: 74.9 LAST: 76.0.
Both suggest that the odds are against us (which we already knew), but the House of Representatives contract is only at 75%, and of course, there are still 9 months to go....
I will leave the analysis to you all in the comments section. ENJOY!!
Democrat: Arizona Senate Race 14.0
Republican: Arizona Senate race 83.0
Democrat: California Senate race 95.0
Republican: California Senate race 3.0
Democrat: Connecticut Senate race 90.0
Republican: Connecticut Senate race 5.0
Democrat: Delaware Senate race 95.0
Republican: Delaware Senate race 5.0
Democrat: Florida Senate race 77.0
Republican: Florida Senate race 18.0
Democrat: Hawaii Senate race 95.0
Republican: Hawaii Senate race 2.0
Democrat: Indiana Senate race 5.0
Republican: Indiana Senate race 95.0
Democrat: Maine Senate race 10.0
Republican: Maine Senate race 85.0
Democrat: Maryland Senate race 49.0
Republican: Maryland Senate race 48.0
Democrat: Massachusetts Senate race 95.0
Republican: Massachusetts Senate race 0.5
Democrat: Michigan Senate race 87.0
Republican: Michigan Senate race 8.0
Democrat: Minnesota Senate race 55.0
Republican: Minnesota Senate race 42.0
Democrat: Mississippi Senate race 0.1
Republican: Mississippi Senate race 95.0
Democrat: Missouri Senate race 37.0
Republican: Missouri Senate race 58.0
Democrat: Montana State race 48.0
Republican: Montana State race 50.0
Democrat: Nebraska Senate race 85.0
Republican: Nebraska Senate race 12.5
Democrat: Nevada Senate race 11.0
Republican: Nevada Senate race 85.0
Democrat: New Jersey Senate race 62.0
Republican: New Jersey Senate race 37.5
Democrat: New Mexico Senate race 90.0
Republican: New Mexico Senate race 5.0
Democrat: New York Senate race 93.0
Republican: New York Senate race 5.1
Democrat: North Dakota Senate race 89.0
Republican: North Dakota Senate race 7.0
Democrat: Ohio Senate race 50.0
Republican: Ohio Senate race 45.0
Democrat: Pennsylvania Senate race 63.0
Republican: Pennsylvania Senate race 33.0
Democrat: Rhode Island Senate Race 32.0
Republican: Rhode Island Senate Race 60.0
Democrat: Tennessee Senate race 30.0
Republican: Tennessee Senate race 67.0
Democrat: Texas Senate race 1.1
Republican: Texas Senate race 95.5
Democrat: Utah Senate race 4.8
Republican: Utah Senate race 95.5
Democrat: Vermont Senate race 3.0
Republican: Vermont Senate race 10.0
Independent: Vermont Senate race 85.0
Democrat: Virginia Senate race 15.0
Republican: Virginia Senate race 80.6
Democrat: Washington Senate race 78.0
Republican: Washington Senate race 20.0
Democrat: West Virginia Senate race 86.0
Republican: West Virginia Senate race 13.0
Democrat: Wisconsin Senate race 85.0
Republican: Wisconsin Senate race 10.0
Democrat: Wyoming Senate race 4.6
Republican: Wyoming Senate race 95.5