We all know about the Tier 1 targeted races for the Senate,
if not check out this diary. These are the races where candidates will have all the money and help they need to win. However, these are not going to be the races that ultimately give Democrats control of Congress. Republicans have targeted these races too and they are going to be bloody and we will win most but not all. It is in the 2nd Tier races that we will get what we need. These are the races that we need to focus on in order to take advantage of the Democratic 2006 Tidal Wave. These races are ones that wouldn't normally be winnable due to incumbency and money and length of time until the election. Yet, Bush and the corrupt Republican Congress have given us the same opportunity that Republicans took advantage of in 1994 when they gained control of Congress due to the Angry White Male and the Dispirited Democrat.
It is important to move now to push these 2nd Tier races into the 1st Tier in order to put Democrats in the best position to take control of the Senate now not 2008.
Polls of the Democrats in these seats are not particularly useful since these candidates are just starting. More useful are what the polls say about the incumbent. These are the top scores for the incumbents and they won't get any better unless something big happens that changes the momentum of the year away from the Democrats and toward the Republicans. These Tier 2 races need focus now while poll numbers for the Democratic challengers are soft and before Republicans realize they have serious problems in these races. Additional poll information helpful in targeting 2nd tier races are Bush approval rates and approval rates of the Governors.
Money is important but not the most important thing in an election. In states like California with its 36 million + people a few paltry million dollars does not make a competitive Senate or Governor race. However, in states with smaller populations a candidate needs far less to get out their message and fight negative campaigns. Ultimately, there is a level of diminishing returns for each dollar spent in a campaign and these 2nd Tier candidates need to be evaluated on their ability to get enough money to compete in a short amount of time. They don't need to match their opponents dollar for dollar just get enough to compete and take advantage of a Democratic Tidal Wave.
Candidate quality is ephemeral. Generally, does the candidate have `star' power? If a person is famous or related to someone famous it helps raise money and gain media interest. If the candidate has a good story to tell, it helps raise money and gain media attention. If the candidate previously held the office or a similar office and is coming out of retirement it helps raise money and gain media attention. Does the candidate have charisma? Ultimately, is the candidate someone committed to running with a clear sense of how they are going to win and are they being taken seriously by the Democrats in their state?
Look at who has been elected in the state. Is the Governor a Democrat? Do the Democrats control the state legislature or are they close? What other statewide offices do Democrats control? What is going on in the state that will help the Democrats? Are Democrats fielding a strong statewide slate?
These Senate races are important since the Senate race will help all local elections. If we are to take advantage of a Democratic Tidal Wave we need to help those running for the House, state legislature, and county commissioner by having strong Senate races.
After looking at these 2nd Tier Senate races and my budget(I made $13,500 last year) I am giving $30 per month to these candidates, go to my ActBlue site to contribute or make your own.
My Pitch to Push 2nd Tier Senate Races Into the 1st Tier
These are the Tier 1 targeted races and some numbers(note I am not listing all candidates in the races only those with the most money to illustrate a point, no offense is intended to the other candidates):
Ohio- Sherrod Brown 2.4 million cash on hand, population 11.5 million, registered voters 7.7 million, cash per voter 31 cents
Pennsylvania - Bob Casey 3.4 million cash on hand, population 12.5 million, registered voters 8.4 million, cash per voter 27 cents
Rhode Island - Sheldon Whitehouse 1.6 million cash on hand, population 1.1 million, registered voters 700,000, cash per voter $2.29
Missouri - Claire McCaskill 1.3 million cash on hand, population 5.8 million, registered voters 4.2 million, cash per voter 22.5 cents
Montana - John Morrisson 800,000 cash on hand, population 930,000, registered voters 639,000, cash per voter $1.25
Tennessee - Harold Ford 1.9 million cash on hand, population 6 million, registered voters 3.8 million, cash per voter 50 cents
Below I have outlined some basic info on the three 2nd Tier Senate races, compare the amount of money raised by candidates in Tier 1 races per voter with those in the 2nd Tier. Both AZ and NV are bargains when it comes to cash per voter and even VA is far cheaper than both Ohio and Penn.
The Democratic Double Standard on Targeting
These 3 Democratic Senators are considered extremely vulnerable and are usually included in the top 10 races nationwide by the media, bloggers, and talking heads. Compare the numbers of our Democratic incumbents we our told are vulnerable with the Republican incumbents that are considered real longshots. I have lived in WA for 37 years and I can tell you that our Democratic Senator in our Democratic state that has voted for the Democratic nominee for President the last 5 elections and has voted for Democratic Governors for the last 20 years will not turn out one of its two female Democratic Senators in a Democratic leaning year. Cantwell also has one of the larger war chests in the nation for Senators facing reelection as does FL Nelson. Why the double standard for Democratic incumbents and Republican incumbents?
3 incumbent Democratic Senators targeted as vulnerable
-WA Cantwell-poll 50% 14 point lead with 5 million cash on hand. Approval rating 50%
-NE Nelson-poll 52% 13 point lead with 3.2 million cash on hand. Approval rating 68%
-FL Nelson-poll 49% 9 point lead with 8 million cash on hand. Approval rating 49%
3 incumbent Republican Senators not targeted as vulnerable
-AZ Kyl - poll 50% 20 point lead 6.3 million cash on hand. Approval rating 47%
-NV Ensign - poll 52% 18 point lead 2.4 million cash on hand. Approval rating 52%
-VA Allen - poll 48% 13 point lead 6.2 million cash on hand. Approval rating 51%
Let me point out how fluid these number are:
In VA before Webb announced and just after Miller announced, Rasmussen showed Allen with an favorable rating of 70% and gave Allen a 30 point lead over Miller. A few weeks later Allen's favorable rating dropped to 61% and the gap between Allen and Miller fell to 12 points. As new polls come out I believe we will see more positive movement for the Democrats. Our Democratic candidates in these races need to be positioned to take advantage of these soft numbers and pushing them into Tier 1 will help. It is better to move now then wait until the Republicans realize the extent of the danger to these incumbents.
Specific Information About These Races
Senate-NV Jack Carter
-Democrats are within 2 seats of controlling the 21 seat state senate
-Democrats control 1 US Senate seat
-Incumbent Republican Senator Ensign polls at 52% with a 52% approval rating and is a Freshman.
-Bush approval 41% 26 out of 50 states and out of the bottom 25 states only 4 others that voted for Bush in 2004 have lower approval ratings for Bush
-Nevada population is only about 2 million. Currently 970,000 registered voters, 70,000 more than in 2000 when Ensign was first elected.
-Son of President means extra media attention and a potential national fundraising base
-Candidate has interesting life history, hands badly damaged from years of hard work, degrees in physics and law, businessman
-Nevada Democrats fielding a full slate of statewide offices. Many are open seats like Governor.
-Carter raised nearly $250,000 in 1st quarter before official announcement and in just over 1 and 1/2 months according to 12/31/05 FEC reports and has nearly $225,000 on hand. This represents 23 cents per voter in the state.
-Both national and international press reported Carter's candidacy further increasing fundraising potential nationwide.
Senate-AZ Jim Pederson
-Population of 6 million with 25% Hispanic and more than 800,000 new residents since the last election for Kyl. 2.9 million registered voters.
-Bush approval 45% tied for 19 out of 50
-Incumbent Republican Senator Kyl polls 50% with a 47% approval rating.
-Arizona Governor is a Democrat running for reelection who is polling 55-58 with a 67% approval rating.
-Arizona Democrats are within 4 seats of controlling the 30 seat state senate
-As of 12/31/05 FEC reports he had raised more than $1.5 million and has more than $1 million on hand. This represents slightly more than 34.5 cents per voter in the state.
Senate-VA James Webb- Harris Miller
-Population just over 7.5 million with 4.5 million registered voters.
-Democrat elected Governor on the heels of another Democratic Governor so popular in the state he is given much of the credit for electing the new Governor.
-Bush approval 45% tied 19 out of 50
-Incumbent Republican Senator Allen polls 49% with a 51% approval rating
-One of the Democratic candidates James Webb was a Secretary of the Navy and Democratic strategy to make this the year of the citizen soldier may be working. VA has a large military population.
-Webb also has (what we now consider to be) moderate Republican credentials, basically pushed out of party which should play well in VA in addition this could mean he will be even more committed to taking down Allen (Heck hath no fury like a..... the whole scorning thing).
-The other Democratic candidate, Harris Miller, has deep pockets and has recently announced that he will match contributions to his campaign, for every 2 dollars he receives he will contribute 1 dollar.
We Can Take the Senate in 2006
The Republicans are on the defensive. Abramoff, Plame, Delay, Cunningham, Ney, etc., these scandals are not going away. The administration seems deaf when it comes to what voters want the UAE port issue is a clear indicator of the tin ear Republicans have at the top. How about those Senate Campaign Committees and their fund raising:
National Republican Senatorial Committee 10.5 million cash on hand
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee 25 million cash on hand
Democrats are hungry and independents and some Republicans are choosing Democrats over Republicans. Look at the precursor elections in 2005 for Governor in VA and NJ. More importantly we see the great indicators at the local levels in special elections. This diary details the Democratic victories in Republican areas. Even in those areas we lose Democrats do better than expected. The Democratic Tidal Wave is real and Democrats need to position themselves to maximize their election victories even in the most unlikely places. The 50 State Strategy is part of this, but when we have quality candidates in races with Republican incumbents who are vulnerable we need to get behind them early.
Useful Daily Kos Diaries:
Senate Fundraising & Polls
Bush Approval in 50 States
Virginia Senate Webb and Miller
Senator Approval Rates