This weekend is the Southern Republican Leadership Conference, where
Republican Presidential hopefuls gather in Memphis to court their base. The media seems all too happy to shift coverage from embattled President Bush to the future GOP nominee. Chris Matthews, no surprise, is like a kid in a candy store, as you can tell from his
Hardball page, which has been transformed into a shrine for the GOP contenders.
For all the media hype about it, the conference is truly a masturbatory exercise, a chance for GOP hopefuls to get their egos stroked and nothing more. The "straw poll" conducted at the conference is meaningless (though Matthews will argue the contrary as he breathlessly breaks the results live). But despite a crowded field, the GOP does not have a viable candidate for 2008. The party itself is in disarray, and not a single GOP contender has stepped forward to save the party from its possible demise. The GOP hopefuls are suffering an identity crisis, not sure if they should distance themselves from one of America's most unpopular President's or ignore the current polls like water off a lame duck's back. Let's examine some of the leading contenders on the flip...
Senator Frist, expected to win the SRLC straw poll, has a record so extreme that most Americans wouldn't embrace him with open arms. He suffers from the trifecta of GOP ailments: (1) his association with right-wing nutjobs (Exhibit A: "Justice Sunday"), (2) the obligatory
"taint," (Exhibit B: that ongoing SEC investigation into a suspicious stock sale), and (3) a failure of leadership (Exhibit C: the embarrassing fact former Majority Leader Trent Lott is
doing a better job in the Senate than he is). And then there is Frist's charisma--or lack thereof. His personality deficit manifested itself in his speech today which
fell flat before delegates--40% of which were from his home state. A Frist nomnation would be just as doomed as the ill-fated kittens the young doctor "adopted" in the 1970s. Dead on arrival, so to speak.
Next, let's turn to Mr. Birthday Cake himself, John McCain. McCain is the Joe Lieberman of the Republican Party. Despite being portrayed by the media as a "moderate," McCain's voting record is a rubber-stamp of Bush's right-wing policies. He is a conservative, and an extreme right-wing one at that. But like Lieberman, it is not his votes as much as his actions that alienate him from the base. Simply put, the base doesn't trust McCain. From rumors of signing on to the Kerry ticket in 2004 to pissing off the NRA, McCain has committed his fair share of PR sins against the conservative cause. If conservatives do stomach a McCain nomination, he would be a formidable candidate in the general election, if only because of the maverick myth created by the media. But that myth, I think, would easily be dispelled by McCain's voting record. And come on, there's enough footage of love between McCain and Bush to make any moderate's stomach turn.
Finally, let's examine Virginia's Senator George Allen. Allen is touted as the stealth nominee, but America isn't ready for a used car salesman. He'll appeal to the GOP base, I'm sure. They like their Presidents macho, tanned, Southern and rich. But watching Allen on TV, one gets the sense he has a very high opinion of himself which isn't backed up by the facts. No matter how hard he tried to sell himself as an expert or a leader, Allen comes across as somewhat dull (intelligence-wise). His campaign in 2008 is easily susceptible to attack as "another George Bush". George Allen Bush in 2008. The ads write themselves.
In short, this weekend's conference and all the hoopla about 2008 is the GOP putting the cart before the horse. Before it can choose a front-runner to represent the party, it has to deal with what the party represents. Today's GOP is one rank with corruption, devoid of leadership, and incapable of securing the trust of the American people. By choosing any of these candidates, the GOP resigns itself to that reality--and possible defeat in 2008.