Don't fight wars you can't win.
That's the bitter lesson of Vietnam; it was the mantra of the U.S. military until the Bush Administration took power and changed it to, "Attack first, plan later". The old doctrine was codified as the so-called Powell Doctrine, which is back in vogue at the Pentagon after its most recent demonstration in Iraq.
In just five years, the unthinkable has become real. That includes both the threat of a nuclear war in the Persian Gulf or that a sort of legal coup might overthrow this Administration.
The fact is, Bush-Cheney screwed the military so badly in Iraq, that the Pentagon brass, along with the CIA, decided in 2004 to bump the Admininistration rather than being dragged into a far more disasterous adventure in Iran. The Joint Chiefs of Staff joined the CIA in referring the Plame case and the Larry Franklin OSP-AIPAC spy case to the Justice Dept., effectively crippling neocon ambitions for "regime change" in Tehran.
The war drums we hear now are part of large disinformation campaign intended to keep Iran off balance while we withdraw from Iraq.
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The Powell doctrine basically says, don't commit U.S. forces unless you have overwhelming force, international support, and a domestic political consensus behind you. Most important of all, have a clear exit plan.
First time, in Desert Storm, it was proved valid. But, its absence in 2003 during the planning and implementation of Operation Iraqi Freedom resulted in the failure of the occupation, an operational quagmire, and the humiliation of the U.S. military. The most serious damage in their eyes is that the guerrilla resistance in Iraq has demonstrated to the world the true vulnerabilities of American forces, as well as the farcical incompetence of its present political leadership. President Bush's war in Iraq has made the U.S. less secure.
While they don't express it publicly, the professional military is enraged at the Bush Administration. After all, it's their lives that have been wasted in ever-greater numbers during the three years since the invasion. If the White House orders Iran attacked for no apparent reason better than partisan domestic politics, that would be taken as a grave abuse of command authority by the armed services, and would prove a fatal error for Bush-Cheney.
The lesson of Iraq For Iran
The reason the First Gulf War was won was because it had limited objectives: clear the Iraqi Army out of Kuwait, and go home. You can't clear the Iraqis out of Iraq, however. Wars of occupation can't be won by military means. Occupations are political wars, and this one is lost for a thousand foreseeable reasons. Even less so, can we hope to fight a limited war with Iran or occupy that country. There is little or no chance the U.S. could force successful "regime change" in Tehran by bombing or invasion. It would weaken us further, while making the most radical elements of their leadership stronger.
So, the lesson of Vietnam and Iraq as widely understood by the uniformed military is this: don't go to war with Iran, unless you want to lose again.
The Generals and intelligence chiefs have understood that quite well since the Spring of 2004. U.S. national security is better served by regime change in Washington than in Tehran -- the former objective is also far more realizable.
The Bush Administration lost the war in Iraq on April 18, 2004. That was the day that the Abu Ghraib photos were released. The source of these documents was military intelligence. Shortly thereafter, the FBI raided the home of Lawrence Franklin, an Iran Desk Officer in the Pentagon Office of Special Plans (OSP), who had been swapping classified documents with Israeli intelligence. It was at this time, as well, that the Joint Chiefs and CIA told their Inspectors General to seek prosecution for Plamegate and the Franklin OSP-AIPAC spy cases. Call it a constitutional coup, if you will, but after taking those steps that have lead to the crippling of the Bush Administration, the brass clearly is not going to start another preemptive war with Iran for Dubya's sake.
"We won't be fooled again"
The Pentagon is opposed to waging a war in Iran, and won't do it. They would rather see Bush-Cheney removed.
In the internal debate over whether to go into Iraq, the chickenhawks -- Wolfowitz, Perle, and rest of the neocons -- won out last time because they had uncertainty on their side. It was unclear whether Hussein really had WMDs, what his intentions were, and how strong his grip on power really was. One need only go back and read the accounts from that very different era before the March, 2003 invasion to see how the arguments lined up, and how very right the dissenting Generals were.
As The Who put it, "We won't be fooled again."
This time, there is no question about Iran. They have a credible theater deterrent in their intermediate range missiles tipped with CBW warheads and cruise missiles. When the first bunker-buster drops on an Iranian nuclear installation, they are perfectly willing to launch them all against American forces, shipping in the Straights of Hormuz, and Israel. It is the Israeli response the U.S. military fears the most. We know exactly how Israel will react, because they have announced it -- the Israeli Air Force and Navy will nuke Iranian cities. That will set off the regional Middle-East war and global oil crisis that every sane person fears and no one believes really serves U.S. national interests.
So, U.S. national security is dependent on prevention, rather than preemption, of war with Iran. The brass understand this, the CIA understands this, and so should it also be starkly apparent to the President's remaining policy circle that the much-weakened White House has few options regarding Iran.
The Pentagon Is a Political Institution
The Pentagon is a political institution in the U.S. It isn't a co-equal branch, but it sets policy over its own area of expertise, which is designing and fighting wars. The top brass have been known to defy the President, when they want to, and to involve themselves in efforts to overthrow Administrations they don't like.
An example of the former is General MacArthur's conduct of the Korean War, for which he was eventually fired by Truman. Truman paid a significant political penalty. The most dramatic instance of the latter case in modern American history is Admiral Moorer, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under Nixon, who had military officers spying within the NSC against Henry Kissinger. In 1972, Moorer agreed with CIA Director Helms and FBI Director Hoover to bring down Richard Nixon. All had different reasons for wanting to be rid of Nixon. The Watergate breakin followed. See, Silent Coup: The Removal of a President by Len Colodny,Robert Gettlin.
War drums over the Potomac
There's a splendid psyops campaign going on right now. It serves to keep Iran off-balance while we withdraw from Iraq. It perhaps slows the development of the Iranian bomb. It is a splendid face-saving measure for Bush-Cheney. It is a political godsend to Karl Rove. But, in the end, Iran will get its new western province and its nuclear deterrent. Nothing in the world can stop that short of a World War. The Generals aren't going to fight such a war in which the U.S. has no reasonable chance of military or political victory. The brass aren't going for it.
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2006. Mark G. Levey
