A story in the Wall Street Journal today reports that the Bush administration is considering applying fuel efficiency standards to the largest SUVs, which are currently exempt from meeting any standard at all.
As the chart shows, GM would be hardest hit.
The one concern the story raises is that the Administration is also proposing to change fuel efficiency rules in a way that would allow companies to sell more inefficient vehicles by calculating their fleet average differently.
Despite this, I was tempted to break open the champagne on my first read of the story. But after a closer review, I think we'll have to keep it on ice for a little while longer. First off, the story states:
People familiar with the discussions cautioned that no decisions have yet been made, and the final regulation may continue to exempt large vehicles.
So who knows what the final rule will look like. But more importantly, the math (if I'm doing it right) just doesn't amount to much.
The proposed rule would continue to exempt pick-up trucks, which constitute the largest portion of heavy vehicles. Overall, the administration estimates that the rule would result in oil savings of a half billion gallons in 2011 (when it would take effect).
Initially I thought this was impressive. But I was thinking barrels--not gallons
Currently the U.S. consumes 7.3 billion barrels of oil annually. Each barrel produces roughly 19 gallons. We therefore consume about 138 billion gallons.
So if you're already ahead of me, you've figured out that the rule would save roughly 0.4% of our total oil consumption. Also it isn't clear whether this is a net savings that takes into account the new loophole. As I said, this isn't a champagne moment, but it may call for a non-diet soda...