In my first three diaries,
here,
here, and
here on the 2006 Democratic Perfect Storm I reviewed the election of 1994 that swept Republicans into Congress, reviewed indicators showing 2006 is the Democratic Perfect Storm, and illustrated some personal election experiences that could be applied to 2006. In an
earlier diary I argued for three Senate races that Democrats ought to make Tier 1 races in order to win the Senate.
Last diary I gave an overview of one of those races,
Jack Carter running for Senate in Nevada. This diary is an overview the Virginia race for Senate by
Jim Webb.
How can we win if we don't fight the fights worth fighting?
No one could accuse
Jim Webb of blog cowardice. He has live blogged on DailyKos at least twice,
Jim Webb Live! &
Jim Webb Live -- Foreign Policy and National Security. He also will be returning to DailyKos to
live blog on Thursday. He will also be posting at
TPM Cafe (Updated link to live blog) today on Democrats and national security issues. We also learn more about Webb`s views in
Jim Webb Conference Call: Congress is in Total Disarray and some of his views are summarized in
20 Questions and Answers with Jim Webb.
GregP makes a compelling case for Jim Webb as a Senator in his diary Fighting Smart: Jim H. Webb, Jr. while mkrc98 tells us about his encounter with Webb at a DFA meeting in Discussion with Jim Webb at DFA Meeting.
Jim Webb secures key endorsement in Virginia Senate Race & Jim Webb secures another key endorsement, tell us about two endorsements from Virginia Democrats for Webb and another announces Wes Clark`s endorsement. Along with these diaries, "Mudcat": Webb is Secretariat; Dems can retake the South & Why I support Jim Webb for Senate by Senator Bob Kerry, they show that Webb is putting together a campaign to make Republican Senator Allen spend a little more time in Virginia campaigning for Senator and less time in Iowa campaigning for President.
It can only help Webb that Allen is tired of being a Senator and wants to be President. According to the New York Times:
As Senator John W. Warner of Virginia, Mr. Allen's Republican colleague, said, "George has got to pay attention."
So Mr. Allen could be found Tuesday night in Culpeper, a farming community in north-central Virginia, politicking retail-style. A friendly audience listened politely as he called for tough new border laws and fiscal responsibility. But the first questioner, a real estate agent and longtime Republican voter named Gardiner Mulford, hinted at trouble ahead.
"The words kind of ring hollow with me," Mr. Mulford said, after pointedly reminding the senator that Republicans ran Washington. He said later that he would not vote for Mr. Allen, or any Republican, "until the party corrects itself."
The senator did not offer much defense. "Some of your concerns I do share," he told Mr. Mulford.
Mr. Allen did not plan to stay in Virginia for long, with an itinerary that also included Texas, South Carolina and New Hampshire (emphasis mine). He ducked awkward questions about the future and whether he would finish a second Senate term.
Allen clearly wants to be President which places him in a very dangerous position. In this December 2005 Rasmussen poll, only 38% of Virginians want Allen to run for President in 2008. When Bill Clinton was running for re-election for Governor of Arkansas in 1990, he had to go around the state making speeches promising not to run for President in 1992 because it became an issue to the people of Arkansas. In addition, someone seeking nomination for the Republican Presidential nomination has to position himself to the far right in order to win the nomination. Inevitably, this will lead Allen to take positions in the early Republican primary and caucus states that will offend Independent voters in Virginia. If Democrats keep track of Allen appearances and speeches in other states and then write letters to the editor and question Allen at public appearances about his Presidential aspirations it may build the idea that Allen is more interested in being President than Senator of Virginia. There is a small possibility that Allen will decided to drop out of the Senate race altogether and concentrate on running for President. We'll know soon because April 14 is the filing date. If he really wants to be President he must win his Senate race if he runs for re-election. If he wants to be President he needs to go to Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and other states. As this site shows, Allen has the 3rd most visits to NH among Republican Presidential contenders since November 2004. That means less time in Virginia, it also means that he will be spending money from his campaign funds that won't get him a single vote in November.
Kos quotes from the National Review to illustrate why Republicans fear Webb may defeat Allen, the article also shows Webb's candidacy may be a sign that Republican dominance in the South is at an end. At TPM Café, Jim Webb blogs on `The Reagan Democrats' - and how to get them back. Webb gives an overview of his strategy to bring back a group of voters who are not natural Republicans. As Ronald Reagan's former Secretary of the Navy who has come back to the Democratic party he has the stature to push the idea that it is time for others in Virginia to return to the party.
The Virginia Senate election can't be discussed without looking at the results for the 2005 Governor's race, one of the major signs of the 2006 Democratic Perfect Storm. Zogby shows us what happens when an unpopular President is linked to a candidate and what happens when a popular former Governor is linked to a candidate.
The race for governor of Virginia, one of two in the nation this month, was a close race that pitted Democrat Tim Kaine against Republican Jerry Kilgore. Pre-election public opinion polls showed the race too close to call, and both candidates reached outside their campaigns to enlist the help of others to put them over the top. In the end, Kaine defeated Kilgore by a 52% to 46% margin, retaining Democratic control of the office in a state that has gone Republican in recent presidential elections.
Overall, 26% were less likely to vote for Republican Kilgore because of Bush while only 12% were more likely to vote Kilgore. On the other hand, 33% were more likely to vote for Kaine because of former Democratic Governor Warner while only 14% were less likely to vote Kaine. Linking Bush and Allen looks like a successful strategy in Virginia. Former Governor Warner appears to have plenty of political capital in Virginia. The Cavalier Daily reports that a January 06 poll conducted by the University of Virginia's Center for Politics shows in a match up between Warner and Allen for President 08, Warner would beat Allen 49% to 32%. After the Virginia primary expect Warner to campaign hard for a Webb victory.
We can also look to a changing political landscape in Virginia where Democrats won Virginia Senate 33rd & House 23rd, two Republican seats in special elections over the past year. In Pew's March poll showing Bush's approval rating at 33% it also shows that his support in the South has fallen to 34%. The March Survey USA poll shows Bush's approval in Virginia at 39% and his disapproval at 57% and their March poll has Republican Allen at 51% approval.
A draft Jim Webb movement was successful in bringing a Webb candidacy to the Senate race of Virginia. As a former marine and Reagan Secretary of the Navy, Webb seems a good match for Virginia. With the support of popular ex-Governor Warner and an aggressive campaign against first-term Senator Allen, this could be the seat that brings the Senate into Democratic control. If you would like to support Jim and win the Senate please visit his website or my ActBlue site. March 31st is the cutoff for this quarter's report and it is important that Jim does well.